Last week’s surprisingly big climb in April’s US CPI data has further energised a debate about inflation. In one corner of that debate are a majority of economic forecasters and policymakers. The view here is that any recent and [...]
Introducing
Andrew Cates
in:Our Authors
Andy Cates joined Haver Analytics as a Senior Economist in 2020. Andy has more than 25 years of experience forecasting the global economic outlook and in assessing the implications for policy settings and financial markets. He has held various senior positions in London in a number of Investment Banks including as Head of Developed Markets Economics at Nomura and as Chief Eurozone Economist at RBS. These followed a spell of 21 years as Senior International Economist at UBS, 5 of which were spent in Singapore. Prior to his time in financial services Andy was a UK economist at HM Treasury in London holding positions in the domestic forecasting and macroeconomic modelling units. He has a BA in Economics from the University of York and an MSc in Economics and Econometrics from the University of Southampton.
Publications by Andrew Cates
Global| May 20 2021The Case Against An Inflation Surge
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| May 04 2021
Global Ripple Effects from US Policy Stimulus
Last week the Biden administration announced that it is contemplating a further major package of fiscal policy measures for the US economy. While the size of the package that is being touted caught the imagination of many observers it [...]
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| May 04 2021
Global Ripple Effects from US Policy Stimulus
Last week the Biden administration announced that it is contemplating a further major package of fiscal policy measures for the US economy. While the size of the package that is being touted caught the imagination of many observers it [...]
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Apr 21 2021
The Power of Surprises
Macroeconomists, market strategists and journalists spend countless hours seeking to "explain" the behaviour of financial markets. Movements in asset prices are typically 'rationalised' with reference to macroeconomic phenomena, [...]
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Apr 14 2021
A Rising Tide Isn't Yet Lifting All Boats
The aphorism "a rising tide lifts all boats" – commonly attributed to John F Kennedy - is often associated with the idea that an improving economy will benefit all participants. Policymakers ought to accordingly maintain a broad focus [...]
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Mar 30 2021
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
Incoming economic data in recent weeks have been encouraging. Forward looking indicators such as March's flash purchasing managers' surveys elicited across-the-board improvements in both manufacturing and services. Every major country [...]
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Mar 17 2021
What Have We Learned So Far This Year?
In many respects this year has started where last year left off. The daily news cycle is still dominated by stories about COVID-19 and about how governments are responding to its ebb and flow. A by now familiar pattern has established [...]
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Mar 08 2021
Climbing the Wall of Worry
Financial markets have clearly become much more unsettled in recent weeks. Growing concerns about inflation risks and how Central Banks might respond to prospective price pressures seem to be top of the worry list. And rising long- [...]
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Mar 01 2021
Inflation Fears Are Probably Over-stated
Inflation fears have surfaced in financial markets in recent weeks. That at least is the message from rising bond yields and the climb in breakeven inflation rates that has accompanied that increase. Greater confidence in a global [...]
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Feb 19 2021
Vaccination and Adaptation
The performance of the world economy in coming months remains hostage to a number of factors but the evolution of the COVID-19 virus is the most important. As we discuss below, however, recent evidence on the virus front has been very [...]
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Feb 12 2021
Heading the Right Way
Some positive trends Amidst the daily barrage of bad news stories that pervade the international media, a number of positive trends have unfolded in recent weeks. For example: • At the global level there has been a sharp retreat in [...]
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Feb 12 2021
Heading the Right Way
Some positive trends Amidst the daily barrage of bad news stories that pervade the international media, a number of positive trends have unfolded in recent weeks. For example: • At the global level there has been a sharp retreat in [...]
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
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