• Conference Board measure of consumer confidence falls for second consecutive month; lowest since August. • Current conditions index plummets while expectations rise. • Jobs gap suggests flat-to-up unemployment rate in December. The [...]
Introducing
Gerald D. Cohen
in:Our Authors
Gerald Cohen provides strategic vision and leadership of the translational economic research and policy initiatives at the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise.
He has worked in both the public and private sectors focusing on the intersection between financial markets and economic fundamentals. He was a Senior Economist at Haver Analytics from January 2019 to February 2021. During the Obama Administration Gerald was Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomic Analysis at the U.S. Department of Treasury where he helped formulate and evaluate the impact of policy proposals on the U.S. economy. Prior to Treasury, he co-managed a global macro fund at Ziff Brothers Investments.
Gerald holds a bachelor’s of science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University and is a contributing author to 30-Second Money as well as a co-author of Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy.
Publications by Gerald D. Cohen
Global| Dec 22 2020U.S. Consumer Confidence Drops in December
- Global| Dec 17 2020
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Continue Upward Climb
• State and Federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance initial claims rise for second consecutive week. • PUA and PEUC continuing claims increase, state programs decline. • Absent action, 14.0 million PUA and PEUC claimants will lose [...]
- Global| Dec 16 2020
U.S. Business Inventories and Sales Rise in October
• Business inventories increased 0.7% in October still 3.2% below February level. • Sales gain 0.9%, now 0.9% above January peak. • Inventory-to-Sales ratio edges down to six-year low of 1.31. Total business inventories grew 0.7% in [...]
- Global| Dec 10 2020
COVID Resurgence Hits U.S. Labor Market as Initial Jobless Claims Jump
• State and Federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance initial claims return to September levels. • Continuing claims increase for state, while PUA and PEUC decline. • Absent action, 13.1 million PUA and PEUC claimants will lose their [...]
- Global| Dec 09 2020
Wholesale Inventories Rise Less Than Sales in October, I/S Ratio Ticks Down
• Inventories increased 1.1%, while sales jumped 1.8% in October. • Wholesale inventory-to-sales ratio edged down to 1.31. Wholesale inventories grew a greater-than-expected 1.1% in October (-2.2% year-over-year). The Informa Global [...]
- Global| Dec 04 2020
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens in October as Exports Grow Faster than Imports
• Trade Deficit increases to $63.1 billion in October. • Exports grow 2.2%; Imports rise 2.1%. • Exports remain 13.2% below February level; imports down just 0.6%. The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $63.1 billion [...]
- Global| Dec 01 2020
Strong U.S. Residential Construction in October
• Construction spending increased 1.3% in October with net upward revisions to previous two months. • Residential jumps 2.9%; continued weakness in nonresidential. • Public increases for first time since May. • Total spending now just [...]
- Global| Nov 25 2020
U.S. Q3 Growth GDP Unrevised at 33.1%; Corporate Profits Rebound
• Q3 GDP jumps at an unrevised 33.1% annual rate in second estimate. • Component revisions were relatively small and offsetting. • Q3 after-tax corporate profits rebounds 36.6% non-annualized; above 2019Q4 peak. • Key price measures [...]
- Global| Nov 19 2020
U.S. Leading and Coincident Indicators Remain Healthy in October
• Leading index rises 0.7% in October. • Coincident indicators up 0.5%, suggesting a healthy start to Q4. • October coincident measure is up 4.3% annualized above the Q3 average. The Conference Board reported that its Composite Index [...]
- Global| Nov 17 2020
U.S. Single Family Home Builder Sentiment Notches Another Record
• Diffusion index rises to record high 90 in November. • All three subcomponents -- present and forward-looking sales as well as foot traffic -- all increase to records. • Three out of four regions improve, only exception Northeast. [...]
- Global| Nov 12 2020
U.S. Jobless Claims Data: Initial Improves, Continuing Mixed
• State initial claims fall to their lowest level since March 14. • Federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance declined to mid-April level. • Continuing claims decreased for state, while PUA and PEUC increase. • First time since late [...]
- Global| Nov 10 2020
U.S. Energy Prices Range-bound
• Crude oil prices rise to $37.82; remain in $37 to $43 range since June. • Gasoline prices edge down. The price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil increased to an average of $37.82 per barrel (-33.4% y/y) in the week [...]
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