Price targeting has failed as a monetary policy experiment, forcing policymakers to now consider a new process to achieve its price stability mandate. Policymakers are considering shifting to an "average" inflation rate over a span of [...]
Introducing
Joseph G. Carson
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Joseph G. Carson, Former Director of Global Economic Research, Alliance Bernstein. Joseph G. Carson joined Alliance Bernstein in 2001. He oversaw the Economic Analysis team for Alliance Bernstein Fixed Income and has primary responsibility for the economic and interest-rate analysis of the US. Previously, Carson was chief economist of the Americas for UBS Warburg, where he was primarily responsible for forecasting the US economy and interest rates. From 1996 to 1999, he was chief US economist at Deutsche Bank. While there, Carson was named to the Institutional Investor All-Star Team for Fixed Income and ranked as one of Best Analysts and Economists by The Global Investor Fixed Income Survey. He began his professional career in 1977 as a staff economist for the chief economist’s office in the US Department of Commerce, where he was designated the department’s representative at the Council on Wage and Price Stability during President Carter’s voluntary wage and price guidelines program. In 1979, Carson joined General Motors as an analyst. He held a variety of roles at GM, including chief forecaster for North America and chief analyst in charge of production recommendations for the Truck Group. From 1981 to 1986, Carson served as vice president and senior economist for the Capital Markets Economics Group at Merrill Lynch. In 1986, he joined Chemical Bank; he later became its chief economist. From 1992 to 1996, Carson served as chief economist at Dean Witter, where he sat on the investment-policy and stock-selection committees. He received his BA and MA from Youngstown State University and did his PhD coursework at George Washington University. Honorary Doctorate Degree, Business Administration Youngstown State University 2016. Location: New York.
Publications by Joseph G. Carson
- Global| Feb 12 2020
Fed's Price Targeting Regime: Suggested Changes Fail to Fix the #1 Flaw--The Price Gauge
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- Global| Feb 07 2020
Roadmap For 2020 Profits Is Filled With Potholes
Analysts and investors have been betting on a rebound in operating profits for 2020, even though profits are running up against a powerful (negative) trend in the annals of business cycles. New events on the international side of [...]
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- Global| Jan 30 2020
The Role of Monetary & Fiscal Policies In Equity Market Cycles
The equity market of 2020 has some of the lofty valuation features that showed up at the peak of 2000 cycle. Yet, a key difference is the accommodative stance of monetary and fiscal policies nowadays versus the restrictive stance of [...]
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- Global| Jan 22 2020
Monetary Policy & Business Cycle Scripts Have Changed: Fed Policy Stimulates Finance Over Spending
The monetary policy guide has fundamentally changed and so to has the business cycle. Changes in monetary policies and practices nowadays stimulate finance over spending. The power and risks of equity markets should not be overlooked [...]
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- Global| Jan 13 2020
December's Slower Wage Growth Reflects Drop in Incentive/Commission Income---Labor Markets Are Still Tight
The abrupt drop in average hourly earnings in December to a 3% gain, 50 basis points below the run-rate of the past year, is as much of a surprise as it is a puzzle. How can the wage data show a one-month plunge in earnings growth [...]
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- Global| Jan 13 2020
December's Slower Wage Growth Reflects Drop in Incentive/ Commission Income---Labor Markets Are Still Tight
The abrupt drop in average hourly earnings in December to a 3% gain, 50 basis points below the run-rate of the past year, is as much of a surprise as it is a puzzle. How can the wage data show a one-month plunge in earnings growth [...]
- Global| Jan 13 2020
December's Slower Wage Growth Reflects Drop in Incentive/ Commission Income---Labor Markets Are Still Tight
The abrupt drop in average hourly earnings in December to a 3% gain, 50 basis points below the run-rate of the past year, is as much of a surprise as it is a puzzle. How can the wage data show a one-month plunge in earnings growth [...]
- Global| Jan 09 2020
The "Real" Phillips Curve Is Not Flat
Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has stated that the relationship between unemployment and inflation “was a strong one 50 years ago…. and has gone away". This relationship, called the Phillips Curve, now has disappeared [...]
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- Global| Jan 03 2020
Two Equity Market Booms, Two Policy Paths
In the past two decades there have been two fundamentally different types of equity market booms that resulted in the market valuation of US companies relative to Nominal GDP soaring to equivalent record highs. Yet, during the dot.com [...]
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- Global| Dec 12 2019
Profit "Inequality"---- Is It Possible That S&P 500 Companies Make Money & No One Else Does?
Inequality has been used to describe the widening gap between household income and wealth. Yet, is it also appropriate to use "inequality" as a way to describe the growing and unexplained gap between the earnings of S&P 500 companies [...]
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- Global| Nov 25 2019
"Financialization": A New Feature & Risk of Monetary Policy
Financialization has become a new feature and risk of monetary policy as decisions on policy rates and the balance sheet operate mainly through the portfolio channel. At the center of financialization are actual and perceived changes [...]
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- Global| Nov 12 2019
Monetary Policy Is Not in A "Good" Place
Policymakers have become enmeshed in the "politics of their numbers" and mistakenly see an inflation shortfall when in reality it's a policy problem. Monetary decisions nowadays are based on a single price gauge that is not fully [...]
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