The March employment report shows massive disruption in the labor market triggered by the coronavirus. And as awful as the payroll job loss numbers appear they pale in comparison to the record loss in household employment and surge in [...]
Introducing
Joseph G. Carson
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Joseph G. Carson, Former Director of Global Economic Research, Alliance Bernstein. Joseph G. Carson joined Alliance Bernstein in 2001. He oversaw the Economic Analysis team for Alliance Bernstein Fixed Income and has primary responsibility for the economic and interest-rate analysis of the US. Previously, Carson was chief economist of the Americas for UBS Warburg, where he was primarily responsible for forecasting the US economy and interest rates. From 1996 to 1999, he was chief US economist at Deutsche Bank. While there, Carson was named to the Institutional Investor All-Star Team for Fixed Income and ranked as one of Best Analysts and Economists by The Global Investor Fixed Income Survey. He began his professional career in 1977 as a staff economist for the chief economist’s office in the US Department of Commerce, where he was designated the department’s representative at the Council on Wage and Price Stability during President Carter’s voluntary wage and price guidelines program. In 1979, Carson joined General Motors as an analyst. He held a variety of roles at GM, including chief forecaster for North America and chief analyst in charge of production recommendations for the Truck Group. From 1981 to 1986, Carson served as vice president and senior economist for the Capital Markets Economics Group at Merrill Lynch. In 1986, he joined Chemical Bank; he later became its chief economist. From 1992 to 1996, Carson served as chief economist at Dean Witter, where he sat on the investment-policy and stock-selection committees. He received his BA and MA from Youngstown State University and did his PhD coursework at George Washington University. Honorary Doctorate Degree, Business Administration Youngstown State University 2016. Location: New York.
Publications by Joseph G. Carson
Global| Apr 06 2020Massive Disruption in Labor Markets
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- Global| Mar 26 2020
"Déjŕ Vu"--"Destroying the Economy By Trying to Save It"
Government restrictions to contain coronavirus have caused tremendous economic damage compelling some to question is it worth "destroying the economy by trying to save it"? This is not the first time government restrictions triggered [...]
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- Global| Mar 17 2020
A "Primer" on Recession: Post Recession Business & Finance Will Be Different
Economic recession is an infrequent occurrence, but in a fundamental sense recessions are the economy's way of cleansing the "rot" out the system that have been built up over time. This emanates from bad investments, bad loans, bad [...]
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- Global| Mar 13 2020
Investors Should Brace For A Record Decline In GDP
Two of largest quarterly declines in economic activity during the post war period occurred during a financial crisis and a widespread cessation of consumer and business activity triggered by uncertainty (and panic) following the [...]
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Last weeks' sharp decline in the equity market was both historic and unusual. In a span of 5 trading days, the S&P 500 index dropped 11.5%, one of the largest single week declines on record. And what is also unusual about last week's [...]
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- Global| Feb 21 2020
"Deja Vu": Companies Don't Account For All Costs To Make Financial Results Appear Better
A large number of US companies are relying on accounting gimmicks to strip out various costs in order to make reported profits appear to be better (or losses less small) than actually is the case. Once again the biggest adjustment [...]
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- Global| Feb 12 2020
Fed's Price Targeting Regime: Suggested Changes Fail to Fix the #1 Flaw--The Price Gauge
Price targeting has failed as a monetary policy experiment, forcing policymakers to now consider a new process to achieve its price stability mandate. Policymakers are considering shifting to an "average" inflation rate over a span of [...]
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- Global| Feb 07 2020
Roadmap For 2020 Profits Is Filled With Potholes
Analysts and investors have been betting on a rebound in operating profits for 2020, even though profits are running up against a powerful (negative) trend in the annals of business cycles. New events on the international side of [...]
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- Global| Jan 30 2020
The Role of Monetary & Fiscal Policies In Equity Market Cycles
The equity market of 2020 has some of the lofty valuation features that showed up at the peak of 2000 cycle. Yet, a key difference is the accommodative stance of monetary and fiscal policies nowadays versus the restrictive stance of [...]
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- Global| Jan 22 2020
Monetary Policy & Business Cycle Scripts Have Changed: Fed Policy Stimulates Finance Over Spending
The monetary policy guide has fundamentally changed and so to has the business cycle. Changes in monetary policies and practices nowadays stimulate finance over spending. The power and risks of equity markets should not be overlooked [...]
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- Global| Jan 13 2020
December's Slower Wage Growth Reflects Drop in Incentive/Commission Income---Labor Markets Are Still Tight
The abrupt drop in average hourly earnings in December to a 3% gain, 50 basis points below the run-rate of the past year, is as much of a surprise as it is a puzzle. How can the wage data show a one-month plunge in earnings growth [...]
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- Global| Jan 13 2020
December's Slower Wage Growth Reflects Drop in Incentive/ Commission Income---Labor Markets Are Still Tight
The abrupt drop in average hourly earnings in December to a 3% gain, 50 basis points below the run-rate of the past year, is as much of a surprise as it is a puzzle. How can the wage data show a one-month plunge in earnings growth [...]
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