Preemptive policy moves have been a defining feature of monetary policy. In the past policymakers have made preemptive rate adjustments in response to potential inflation pressures, financial market turmoil, and now perceived risks [...]
Introducing
Joseph G. Carson
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Joseph G. Carson, Former Director of Global Economic Research, Alliance Bernstein. Joseph G. Carson joined Alliance Bernstein in 2001. He oversaw the Economic Analysis team for Alliance Bernstein Fixed Income and has primary responsibility for the economic and interest-rate analysis of the US. Previously, Carson was chief economist of the Americas for UBS Warburg, where he was primarily responsible for forecasting the US economy and interest rates. From 1996 to 1999, he was chief US economist at Deutsche Bank. While there, Carson was named to the Institutional Investor All-Star Team for Fixed Income and ranked as one of Best Analysts and Economists by The Global Investor Fixed Income Survey. He began his professional career in 1977 as a staff economist for the chief economist’s office in the US Department of Commerce, where he was designated the department’s representative at the Council on Wage and Price Stability during President Carter’s voluntary wage and price guidelines program. In 1979, Carson joined General Motors as an analyst. He held a variety of roles at GM, including chief forecaster for North America and chief analyst in charge of production recommendations for the Truck Group. From 1981 to 1986, Carson served as vice president and senior economist for the Capital Markets Economics Group at Merrill Lynch. In 1986, he joined Chemical Bank; he later became its chief economist. From 1992 to 1996, Carson served as chief economist at Dean Witter, where he sat on the investment-policy and stock-selection committees. He received his BA and MA from Youngstown State University and did his PhD coursework at George Washington University. Honorary Doctorate Degree, Business Administration Youngstown State University 2016. Location: New York.
Publications by Joseph G. Carson
Global| Nov 04 2019Fed's Insurance Rate Cuts Don't Eliminate Risks They Create New Ones
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- Global| Oct 30 2019
A Fiscal Policy "Flop"
Its now nearly two year since the Trump Administration and Congress passed major tax cuts for businesses and individuals and followed that legislative initiative up with a relatively large increase in spending for defense and [...]
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- Global| Oct 28 2019
Decade of Record Deficits & A Vulnerable Business Cycle
Federal budget deficits need to be analyzed nowadays in the context of how much it is propping up the economic growth cycle because after a decade of record federal deficits the current business cycle would ran out of gas without [...]
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- Global| Oct 21 2019
The State of the Consumer: Views From Retail & Banks
How strong is the consumer sector? It depends on where you sit in the food chain of consumer sales and finance. Nominal growth of consumer spending in 2019 has slowed to its weakest growth rate in three years, with many traditional [...]
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- Global| Oct 14 2019
Trade Negotiations – US Agrees To A Farm Package, Not Trade Deal With China
After 18 months of negotiations, the trade talks ended with the US achieving very little. It is wrong to call this a "trade" deal, let alone a "substantial " one since the focus, almost exclusively, of the Trump Administration has [...]
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- Global| Oct 11 2019
A Policy Recession
Is it possible for a policy recession to occur when successive rounds of policy-stimulus have worked to extend the economic cycle and the policy-fuel runs out or cannot be provided in the same scale? We may soon find out. The current [...]
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- Global| Oct 10 2019
A Policy Recession
Is it possible for a policy recession to occur when successive rounds of policy-stimulus have worked to extend the economic cycle and the policy-fuel runs out or cannot be provided in the same scale? We may soon find out. The current [...]
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- Global| Oct 10 2019
A Policy Recession
Is it possible for a policy recession to occur when successive rounds of policy-stimulus have worked to extend the economic cycle and the policy-fuel runs out or cannot be provided in the same scale? We may soon find out. The current [...]
- Global| Oct 07 2019
Payroll Data & Business Surveys Indicate Hiring Slump, Weak Growth And Profit Decline
In September, payroll employment rose close to consensus estimates and the jobless rate dropped to a 50-year low, easing fears, at least for the moment, of a broad slump in hiring and a deep economic slowdown. Yet, the employment [...]
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- Global| Sep 30 2019
"Solving" The Profits Puzzle
The profits puzzle is no more. A recent report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) stated that the primary reason that the GDP measure of operating profits does not show the "large run-up in profits" in other "popular measures" [...]
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- Global| Sep 24 2019
The Profits Puzzle
Operating profits for the overall economy have been essentially flat since 2014. Yet, during the same 5-year period operating profits for the S&P 500 companies are estimated to be up by a third. Taken at face value, the profits data [...]
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- Global| Sep 03 2019
US Purchasing Managers "Recession" Warning---- Few Firms Report Gains in Orders and Production
The August report from the Institute of Supply Management on the manufacturing sector showed a sharp drop in overall activity, with very few firms reporting gains in new orders and production. The manufacturer's purchasing managers' [...]
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