Operating profits for the overall economy have been essentially flat since 2014. Yet, during the same 5-year period operating profits for the S&P 500 companies are estimated to be up by a third. Taken at face value, the profits data [...]
Introducing
Joseph G. Carson
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Joseph G. Carson, Former Director of Global Economic Research, Alliance Bernstein. Joseph G. Carson joined Alliance Bernstein in 2001. He oversaw the Economic Analysis team for Alliance Bernstein Fixed Income and has primary responsibility for the economic and interest-rate analysis of the US. Previously, Carson was chief economist of the Americas for UBS Warburg, where he was primarily responsible for forecasting the US economy and interest rates. From 1996 to 1999, he was chief US economist at Deutsche Bank. While there, Carson was named to the Institutional Investor All-Star Team for Fixed Income and ranked as one of Best Analysts and Economists by The Global Investor Fixed Income Survey. He began his professional career in 1977 as a staff economist for the chief economist’s office in the US Department of Commerce, where he was designated the department’s representative at the Council on Wage and Price Stability during President Carter’s voluntary wage and price guidelines program. In 1979, Carson joined General Motors as an analyst. He held a variety of roles at GM, including chief forecaster for North America and chief analyst in charge of production recommendations for the Truck Group. From 1981 to 1986, Carson served as vice president and senior economist for the Capital Markets Economics Group at Merrill Lynch. In 1986, he joined Chemical Bank; he later became its chief economist. From 1992 to 1996, Carson served as chief economist at Dean Witter, where he sat on the investment-policy and stock-selection committees. He received his BA and MA from Youngstown State University and did his PhD coursework at George Washington University. Honorary Doctorate Degree, Business Administration Youngstown State University 2016. Location: New York.
Publications by Joseph G. Carson
Global| Sep 24 2019The Profits Puzzle
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- Global| Sep 03 2019
US Purchasing Managers "Recession" Warning---- Few Firms Report Gains in Orders and Production
The August report from the Institute of Supply Management on the manufacturing sector showed a sharp drop in overall activity, with very few firms reporting gains in new orders and production. The manufacturer's purchasing managers' [...]
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- Global| Aug 29 2019
Corporate Profits--- Long Slide Has Preceded Recessions in Years Past
Corporate profits rebounded in Q2, rising 5.3%, reversing the near 5% decline of the prior two quarters based on the updated figures released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The up and down pattern in profits has become a [...]
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- Global| Aug 13 2019
Recession and the Signal from the Treasury Yield Curve
Recessions are far from being alike and their symptoms and causes differ over time. Despite its many shapes and sizes the historical regularity that an inverted Treasury yield curve has coincided with recession has raised concern now [...]
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- Global| Aug 07 2019
The Federal Budget--- "Unbalanced" Forever?
The Trump Administration, with support and consent from Congress, has cobbled together a lopsided federal budget, loaded with upfront stimulus, financed with huge borrowings, only to be reversed in future years with doubtful spending [...]
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- Global| Jul 26 2019
The "Truth" on Profits – No Gain in Operating Earnings for the Past 5 Years
The happy prophecy of endless growth in the economy generating a continuous flow of strong corporate earnings just ran into trouble—the "truth" on profits. According to GDP data released today Q2 corporate earning posted their largest [...]
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The Phillips curve has been dormant for over two decades, as the dynamic between tight labor markets and inflation has virtually disappeared. Yet, the demise of the Phillips curve should not be used as a reason for policymakers to [...]
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- Global| Jul 12 2019
Preemptive or Bubble-Making Monetary Policy
Preemptive actions is an important feature of monetary policy, but policymakers have never made a preemptive move when the economy's actual performance has been so closely aligned with the Fed's own expectations or when the financial [...]
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- Global| Jul 09 2019
US Equity Market: An "Oasis" of Hope
The strong gains in the US equity markets during the first half of 2019 were mainly driven by the "hope" of new policies than improving fundamentals. Equity investors have been "hoping" that policymakers will reverse course and lower [...]
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- Global| Jun 24 2019
The Fed's "Gamble"
The Federal Reserve appears to be embarking on a new policy. Policymakers appear to be dangling the prospect of more monetary accommodation in order to encourage more risk-taking and use the strength of the asset markets to help them [...]
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- Global| Jun 17 2019
Investors Are Overlooking One (Big) Thing: "Profits"
As mid-year approaches, helping support from falling rates and the hints of more monetary accommodation from the Fed has driven the impressive double-digit gains in equity markets. Yet, corporate profits, the ultimate driver of [...]
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- Global| Jun 11 2019
Is The Fed At Risk of Repeating the Mistakes of the Past?
Before policymakers decide to provide an insurance cut, or two, against potential destabilizing events in the financial markets, or react to any economic weakness that may be linked to trade disputes it would be prudent on their part [...]
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