This week, we look at the state of US–Asia trade talks as the July 9 expiration of the US’ 90-day tariff pause approaches. Despite early activity, few deals have been finalized. So far, the US has reached only a limited agreement with the UK and rolled back mutual tariffs with China, alongside a framework on rare earth exports. Much of the action has focused on undoing previous measures rather than making new advances. Still, Asian markets have shown signs of stability (chart 1), though volatility may return as the tariff deadline nears. The outcome remains uncertain. President Trump has indicated flexibility on the deadline, and Treasury Secretary Bessent has suggested more deals may come only by Labor Day in September. Meanwhile, US effective tariff rates have already risen (chart 2), though inflation impacts have been muted, likely due in part to importers absorbing costs.
Among Asian partners, India shows the most near-term promise, with ongoing talks focused on mutual market access, though barriers remain in agriculture and dairy (chart 3). Japan has made no breakthroughs despite pressing concerns over auto and metal tariffs—sectors key to exports and GVA (chart 4). South Korea, just emerging from political transition, is only beginning substantive talks (chart 5). In Southeast Asia, Indonesia and Vietnam are among the most likely to reach agreements. Both face steep tariff hikes if talks fail, particularly Vietnam with a potential 46% rate. Indonesia has submitted proposals, while Vietnam remains optimistic. Thailand, still early in talks and politically distracted, is unlikely to meet the July 9 deadline (chart 6).
US trade deals so far this year We have already reached the end of the first half of the year, and the US’ flurry of trade-related actions has so far yielded tangible outcomes with only a few countries. To date, the US has concluded a limited trade deal with the UK and reached an agreement with China to roll back many of the tariffs both sides imposed earlier this year. More recently, the US and China also established a framework concerning China’s rare earth export controls. That said, much of the world remains without new US trade deals. Most of the developments thus far have focused on partially reversing measures implemented earlier this year, rather than advancing beyond the pre-inauguration day baseline. Still, a measure of market calm has returned—at least in Asia—as reflected in recent rallies across some of the region’s equity indexes (chart 1). However, renewed volatility may lie ahead as the July 9 expiration of the US’ 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs approaches.