AsiaIn this week's newsletter, we examine monetary policy in the Asia-Pacific region. Fed Chair Powell’s recent Jackson Hole remarks have further solidified expectations of an imminent easing cycle. And this has removed a big barrier to many central banks in Asia in their pursuit of a domestic easing cycle as well. Nonetheless, some central banks in the region have already begun implementing interest rate cuts ahead of any Fed moves. We also take a closer look at Japan, which stands out among major economies due to its distinct approach to monetary policy calibration. While Japan is also pursuing monetary normalization, its path remains unique. Additionally, we address key themes in the Asian region, focusing on semiconductor stocks and the electric vehicle (EV) sector. In the semiconductor space, there may be overly optimistic investor expectations, given that extraordinary growth rates are unlikely to be sustainable indefinitely. As for the EV sector, trade measures against Chinese imports are both intensifying and expanding across more economies, reflecting deeper geopolitical entanglements.
Overall, monetary policy in most of the region is shifting towards easing, with domestic inflation under control and major central banks already implementing rate cuts. Japan, however, continues to follow its own course with policy tightening. Meanwhile, uncertainty persists in the semiconductor and EV markets due to evolving investor expectations and escalating geopolitical tensions.
Monetary policy Central banks in the Asia-Pacific region are increasingly transitioning towards easing monetary policy, though policy rates have largely remained stable in recent months (Chart 1). Nonetheless, some economies have already begun reducing interest rates. For example, China cut its rates further in July to boost demand and support struggling sectors like the property market and household sector. In August, New Zealand's central bank implemented its first rate cut in four years and signalled the possibility of further easing. Additionally, the central bank of the Philippines also lowered its policy rate in August, becoming the first Asian central bank to do so in this cycle, aside from China. Recent comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who stated in his Jackson Hole speech that “the time has come” for the Fed to begin lowering rates, have bolstered expectations for increased monetary easing in the Asia-Pacific region. Powell’s remarks align with the broader trend of most major central banks shifting from tightening policies to easing measures.
