- Three-month payroll growth is weakest since 2021.
- Earnings match expectations m/m, but trend continues to decelerate.
- Unexpected jobless rate increase continues upward trend of last year.
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
USA| Jul 05 2024U.S. Employment Gain Slows in June; Downward Revisions & Rise in Jobless Rate Compromise Picture of Labor Market Strength
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Gain in jobs is weakest in five months; factory jobs decline.
- Service-sector & construction job growth slows; leisure hiring picks up.
- Wage growth for “job stayers” eases y/y.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jul 03 2024U.S. Factory Orders Decline in May After Three Consecutive Gains; Shipments Fall, but Backlogs & Inventories Rise
- Durable goods orders edge higher, but nondurable goods orders decline.
- Total unfilled orders rise but excluding transportation fall.
- Inventories rise slightly.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jul 02 2024U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Rebound in May
- Openings fail to recover April loss and remain well below 2022 high.
- Hiring remains sharply lower y/y.
- Job separations hold steady but quits rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jul 02 2024U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Fall Sharply in June
- Both light truck and passenger car sales decline.
- Imports' market share improves.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Gasoline prices rise to highest level in four weeks.
- Crude oil prices steady.
- Natural gas costs rebound.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jul 01 2024U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Eases in June; Prices Fall Sharply
- Index weakens to lowest point in four months.
- Production & inventories lead decline while new orders & supplier deliveries edge higher.
- Price index falls to six-month low.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 28 2024U.S. PCE Price Index Steadies in May with Core Prices Minimally Higher; Spending Growth Improves
- Price index held down by declines in goods prices.
- Real spending increases modestly.
- Income gain improves.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 27 2024U.S. Durable Goods Orders Are Little Changed in May
- Aircraft orders surge as motor vehicle orders moderate.
- Excluding transportation, orders ease.
- Shipments slip but inventories & backlogs edge higher.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 27 2024U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens in May
- Largest goods trade deficit since May ’22.
- Export decline reverses April increase.
- Imports fall moderately following April surge.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 26 2024U.S. New Home Sales Decline Sharply in May
- Sales fall to six-month low.
- Declines are logged throughout the country.
- Median sales price eases.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 26 2024U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Rise in Latest Week
- Increase last week is third straight gain.
- More purchase applications offset by dip in refinancing.
- 15-year mortgage rate is little changed.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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