Tom Moeller

230705F.jpg

230705G.jpg

The Autodata Corporation reported that light vehicle sales during June rose 4.4% (20.9% y/y) to 15.80 million units (SAAR) following a 6.0% decline in May. Sales remain in an uptrend since a low of 12.38 million in early-September 2021.

Sales of light trucks rose 5.1% (22.1% y/y) during June to 12.58 million units after falling 6.3% in May. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks rose 4.7% (23.7% y/y) to 9.86 million units after falling 5.4% in May. Domestic light truck sales have been rising from a September 2021 low of 7.25 million. Sales of imported light trucks gained 6.3% (16.3% y/y) to 2.71 million units after weakening 9.6% during May.

Trucks' share of the light vehicle market improved to 79.6% last month from 79.1%. It was the highest share in three months and compared to 78.8% twelve months earlier.

Auto sales rose 1.6% (16.2% y/y) last month to 3.22 million units following a 5.1% May weakening. Purchases of domestically-produced cars improved 2.2% (19.2% y/y) to 2.36 million units after falling 5.7% in May. Sales of imported autos weakened 1.1% (+10.3% y/y) to 0.86 million after falling 2.2% in May. It as the fourth decline in five months.

Imports' share of the U.S. vehicle market edged higher to 22.7% in June from 22.6% in May. The share compared to 23.8% twelve months earlier. Imports' share of the passenger car market fell to 26.7% in June from 27.4% in May. It reached a high of 37.9% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market was little changed in June at 21.5%.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the **INDUSTRY** database.

The minutes to the latest **FOMC** meeting can be found [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20230614.pdf).

230705H.jpg

230705I.jpg

- Light trucks lead the increase. 
- Imports' market share remains below its high.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Rebound in June

230705C11.jpg

230705D11.jpg

Retail gasoline prices fell last week to an average $3.64 per gallon (-25.3% y/y) for all grades from $3.69 the week before. Prices have been volatile over the year, ranging between $3.20 and $5.11. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel fell to $3.77 per gallon (-33.6% y/y) last week, down from $3.80 the previous week. Prices have ranged this past year between $3.79 per gallon and $5.810 per gallon.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil averaged $69.37 per barrel (-37.0% y/y) in the week ended June 30 versus $70.47 per barrel in the prior week. The latest price was near the recent low of $69.41 per barrel, down from the high of $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. On Monday, the price was $69.79 per barrel. Brent crude prices fell to $73.31 per barrel last week (-39.1% y/y) from $75.26. The recent low price for Brent was $73.89 in the week of June 2, and the recent high was $127.40 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday’s price was $76.23 per barrel.

Natural gas prices averaged $2.60/mmbtu (-59.1% y/y) in the week of June 30 versus $2.28 in the prior week. The price ranged between a low of $1.93 in the first week of June to $8.95 in the second week of June 2022. Yesterday, the price was $2.48/mmbtu.

In the four weeks ended June 23, gasoline demand rose 3.8% from a year earlier after increasing 3.1% y/y in the prior four-week period. Demand for all petroleum products increased 1.3% y/y versus 0.8% y/y in the prior week. Crude oil input to refineries rose 0.5% in the latest four weeks from a year ago.

Gasoline inventories rose 0.2% y/y in the June 23 week after a 1.1% y/y increase the prior week. Inventories of distillate fuel oil rose 1.8% in the latest week after 4.0% the week prior and residual fuel oil inventories were up 9.4% after a 7.9% rise in the prior week. Crude oil inventories including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell 12.2% from a year ago after an 11.9% y/y decrease in the prior week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories in the week of were 23.9, down slightly from 24.0 days in the June 9 week. The recent high was 29.6 days in late December and the recent low was 22.9 days in the May 19 week. The supply of crude oil as of June 23 was 27.5 days, down from 28.1 days in the prior week. The recent high was 31.9 days at the beginning of March.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database.

- Gasoline prices decline to three-week low.
- Crude oil prices ease.
- Natural gas prices continue to rise.

U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed

230630T5.jpg

230630U5.jpg

The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer rose to a seasonally adjusted 41.5 during June after falling to 40.4 in May but remained below 50 (the break-even point for rising vs. falling activity) for the tenth consecutive month. The index peaked at 71.3 in May 2021. A reading of 43.7 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Chicago Business Barometer with methodology similar to the ISM Composite Index. This measure fell to 43.0 in June from 44.8 in May, indicating a decline in business activity overall in recent months. The latest reading remains below a 64.4 high in October 2021.

The order backlog measure improved to 33.1 after collapsing to 30.4 in May. Eighteen percent (NSA) of survey respondents reported larger backlogs while 50% reported them smaller. The production measure rose to 42.6 after falling sharply to 39.6 in May. A greatly improved 22% of survey respondents reported higher production while an increased 39% reported it lower.

To the downside, the employment index fell to 45.6 after declining to 48.5 in May. An increased 19% of firms reported higher payrolls while a higher 27% reported a decline. The new orders reading of 39.6 was reduced from 39.7 in May and was the lowest reading in seven months. Twenty-five percent of respondents reported higher order levels while 46% reported a decline. The supplier-delivery series eased to 48.8 from 52.1. The inventories index fell to 38.2 this month from 44.3 in May. It had surged to 58.5 in March.

Inflation pressures continued to diminish in June. The prices paid index weakened to 53.5 from 60.9 in May and remained at the lowest level since April 2020. The index remained below the high of 94.6 in November 2021. A greatly lessened 29% (NSA) of respondents reported an increase in prices, compared to 55% in April, while a much higher 21% reported lower prices.

The Chicago Business Barometer is considered to be a leading indicator of the U.S. economy. An indicator reading above 50 indicates expansion while below 50 suggests contraction. Summary data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database with detail including the ISM-style index in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

230630V5.jpg

230630W5.jpg

- Index rise is minimal after sharp decline.
- Component changes are mixed.
- Prices paid index falls to three-year low.

U.S. Chicago Business Barometer Improves in June

230630J2.jpg

230630K2.jpg

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.1% during May (6.0% y/y) following a 0.6% April advance, revised from 0.8%. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Adjusted for prices, real PCE was little changed (+2.1% y/y) after rising 0.2% in April. Real PCE has been roughly unchanged for three of the last four months.

Real spending on durable goods dropped 1.2% (+2.4% y/y) in May following a 0.8% April increase. Spending on motor vehicle & parts declined 4.3% (+4.3% y/y) after a 0.5% rise. Real spending on furniture & appliances rose 1.0% (0.7% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Real spending on recreational goods & vehicles rose 0.5% (3.8% y/y) after a 1.2% rise in April.

Real spending on nondurable goods held steady last month (0.4% y/y) after a 0.4% April. Real apparel spending fell 0.3% (-1.1% y/y) after a 0.2% gain. Outlays on gasoline & other energy products rose 0.4% (2.4% y/y) last month following a 0.2% decline in April while real food & beverage outlays edged 0.1% higher (-0.7% y/y) following a 0.4% gain.

Real spending on consumer services improved 0.2% (2.6% y/y) in May after a 0.1% uptick. Recreation services buying declined 0.3% (+3.5% y/y) after a 0.5% gain while real hotel & restaurant spending declined 0.2% (+2.0% y/y) following a 0.1% improvement. Real transportation services outlays rose 1.5% (0.9% y/y) for the second consecutive month while real housing & utilities expenditures eased 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) after a 0.4% decline. Real healthcare spending gained 0.2% (6.7% y/y) last month for the second consecutive month. Financial services & insurance expenditures rose 0.5% (2.7% y/y) after a 0.9% April increase.

Personal income rose 0.4% (5.5% y/y) after increasing 0.3% in February, revised from 0.4%. A 0.4% rise had been expected. The gain reflected a 0.5% increase (5.7% y/y) in wages & salaries which followed a 0.4% increase in April. Proprietors' income rose 0.3% (3.8% y/y) last month following a 0.6% decline. Rental income edged 0.1% higher (11.7% y/y) after a 0.8% April rise. Receipts on assets rose 0.3% (5.0% y/y) after a rise of 0.4% while interest income rose 0.5% (6.7% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Dividend income improved 0.1% (3.2% y/y) following a 0.3% gain. Personal transfer receipts rose 0.3% (5.4% y/y) in May after easing 0.1% in April.

Disposable income rose 0.4% (8.0% y/y) in May following a 0.3% rise in April. Taxes rose 0.2% (-9.0% y/y) after holding steady in February. Real disposable earnings rose 0.3% (4.0% y/y) last month, following a 0.1% dip in April.

The personal saving rate rose to 4.6% in May from 4.3% in April. It equaled the highest rate since January 2022. The level of personal savings increased 7.6% (47.8% y/y) last month.

The PCE chain price index edged 0.1% higher (3.8% y/y) last month after a 0.4% April gain. The index excluding food & energy rose 0.3% (4.6% y/y), about as it did in the prior three months. Goods prices eased 0.1% (+1.1% y/y), while services prices gained 0.3% (5.3% y/y). The PCE services price index excluding energy & health care increased 0.3% (6.3% y/y), down from highs of 0.7% in both August & September of last year. Energy prices fell 3.9% (-13.4% y/y) in May following a 0.7% rise (-13.4% y/y) in April, while food prices edged up 0.1% (5.8% y/y) after easing modestly in both of the prior two months.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

230630L2.jpg

230630M2.jpg

- Real spending has been steady for roughly four months.
- Personal income growth reflects firm wages.
- Price index growth slows.

U.S. Personal Spending Slows in May but Income Improves; Prices Rise Minimally

230629F8.jpg

230629G8.jpg

The Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) weakened 2.7% in May (-22.2% y/y) to 76.5 from a little-revised 78.6 in April. The index has declined in each of the last three months and was 40.2% below its August 2020 high of 128.0. The index level in May was the lowest since December.

The decline in sales occurred as the average rate on a 30-year mortgage rose to 6.43% last month from 6.34% in April. That was the highest monthly average since 6.81% in November of last year. The rate rose to 6.67% last week.

In the West, sales declined 6.1% in May (-26.6% y/y) after rising 4.7% in April. Sales in the Midwest fell 5.3% last month (-23.5% y/y) after rising 3.8% in April.  Home sales in the South weakened 4.4% (-19.6% y/y) in May after falling 0.8% in April. Moving the other way, pending home sales in the Northeast rose 12.9% (-21.9% y/y) last month and reversed an 11.3% April decline.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **SURVEYW** database.

- Sales fall to five-month low.
- Most regions record declines.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline in May as Interest Rates Rise

230629A5.jpg

230629B5.jpg

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 239,000 during the week ended June 24 from 265,000 in the prior week, revised from 264,000 reported initially. Initial claims ranged between 262,000 and 265,000 during the first three weeks of June. These figures were the highest since October 2021. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 260,000 initial claims in the latest week.

The four-week moving average of initial claims edged up to 257,500 last week from 256,000 in the prior week. This was the highest level since the second week of November 2021.

The number of continued weeks claimed, or “insured unemployment,” fell to 1.742 million in the week ended June 17, down from a little-revised 1.761 million in the prior week. It was the lowest level since the third week of February. The four-week moving average of continued weeks claimed declined to 1.758 million from 1.771 million in the prior week. The latest level remained the lowest since the first week of March, down from a high of 1.833 million in the second week of April.

The insured unemployment rate, that is, continued claims as a percent of covered employment, held at 1.2%. This rate has been between 1.2% and 1.3% since late-January and compares with 0.9% in September and early-October of last year.

In the week ended June 10, the total number of continued weeks claimed for all unemployment insurance programs rose to 1.698 million (29.2% y/y), the highest level in seven weeks. The recent high was 2.000 million in late February. The total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs and is not seasonally adjusted. Claims in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release.

The insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely across states. In the week ended June 10, the highest insured rates of unemployment were in California (2.27%), New Jersey (2.09%), Massachusetts (1.79%), New York (1.60%) and Oregon (1.56%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.20%), Virginia (0.35%), North Dakota (0.38%), New Hampshire (0.38%) & Kansas (0.39%). Rates in other large states include Illinois (1.48%), Pennsylvania (1.47%), Texas (1.13%) and Florida (0.43%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims go back to 1967 and are contained in Haver's **WEEKLY** database, and they are summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW**. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the **AS1REPNA** database.

**Not Just “Stimulus” Checks: The Marginal Propensity to Repay Debt** from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available [here](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/06/not-just-stimulus-checks-the-marginal-propensity-to-repay-debt/).

230629C5.jpg

230629D5.jpg

- Claims fall to lowest level in four weeks.
- Continuing claims drop sharply to February low.
- Insured unemployment rate steady & low for 9th straight week.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline Sharply

230628H4.jpg

230628I4.jpg

The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $91.1 billion in May after widening to $97.1 billion in April, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A $92.0 billion deficit had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit averaged $94.1 billion so far in Q2 versus $88.0 billion during Q1.

Total exports fell 0.6% (-7.5% y/y) in May after a 5.3% April decline. It was the third decline in four months. Exports of foods, feeds & beverages dropped 14.2% (-21.1% y/y) while industrial supplies & materials exports slumped 3.0% in May (-21.8% y/y). To the upside, auto & parts exports gained 8.7% (16.3% y/y) and nonauto consumer goods exports rose 4.3% (2.7% y/y). Capital goods exports rose 1.1% (5.1% y/y) while exports of other goods rose 2.4% in May (14.4% y/y).

The value of imports declined 2.7% in May (-8.8% y/y) and reversed the 2.1% April rise. It was the third decline in four months. Imports of nonauto consumer goods fell 7.3% (-16.6% y/y). Also falling, industrial supplies & materials imports fell 5.9% (-22.1% y/y) in May as foods, feeds & beverage imports weakened 3.0% (-11.0% y/y). Working higher, imports of capital goods imports rose 1.3% (0.5% y/y) while auto imports improved 0.9% (11.7% y/y). Imports of other goods rose 6.7% in May (11.3% y/y).

The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in **AS1REPNA**.

- Deficit average in Q2 suggests moderate subtraction from GDP growth.
- Exports decline modestly following April slump.
- Imports shortfall fall back again.

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Narrows in May

230628A12.jpg

230628B12.jpg

Mortgage applications rose 3.0% (-33.0% y/y) in the week ending June 23 after a 0.5% increase in the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. It was the third consecutive weekly rise.

Applications for loans to purchase a house increased 2.8% (-29.9% y/y) last week after rising 1.5% in the week prior. It was the third straight weekly increase. Applications for loan refinancing rose 3.3% (-39.5% y/y) after falling 2.1% in the prior week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 27.2% of total applications in the June 23 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity eased to 6.1%, the lowest since the first week of April.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan of 6.94% last week compared to 6.92% in the prior week and was below the 7.15% high at the end of May. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages slipped to 6.40% after falling to 6.43% in the previous week. The rate on a 30-year Jumbo loan edged up to 7.11% from 6.94%. The rate on a 5-year ARM loan rose to a record 6.66% from 6.61% in the previous week. It was increased from 5.83% at the end of last year.

The average size of a mortgage loan increased to $384,200 from the average $347,600 at the end of last year. The average size of a purchase loan was little changed at $428,000 (3.5% y/y) while the average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage increased to $267,100 (-2.3% y/y) from $260,700 in the prior week.

The Mortgage Bankers Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- Sharp increase follows a small gain in prior week.
- Purchase & refinancing applications rise.
- Mortgage rates remain below late-May high.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Increase as Interest Rates Are Little Changed

230627N2.jpg

230627O2.jpg

The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence Index strengthened 7.0% (11.5% y/y) to 109.7 following a 1.2% decline to 102.5 during June, revised from 102.3. It was the highest level of confidence since January 2022, up 15.1% from its recent low in July of last year. A reading of 104.1 for June had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

The Expectations Index strengthened 10.9% (20.5% y/y) to 79.3 following a 0.3% easing to 71.5 in May. The index was at the highest level in six months. The Present Situation Index rose 4.3% (5.5% y/y) to 155.3 following a 1.9% May decline to 148.6. It stood at the highest level since July 2021.

Consumers' assessment of current business conditions improved m/m as 23.7% of respondents characterized conditions as good in June, up from a low of 16.3% last July. Labor market readings were slightly better this month. The jobs gap, representing the difference between respondents indicating that jobs are plentiful versus those saying jobs are hard to get, rose to 34.4% from 30.7% in May. Calculated by Haver Analytics, this series has a 64% correlation with the unemployment rate over the last ten years. The jobs plentiful measure rose to 46.8%, but remained down from the March 2022 high of 56.7. The jobs hard to get measure was little changed at 12.4%, which was increased from a 10.5% low in February.

Consumers assessment of future business conditions improved as an increased 14.2% of respondents felt that conditions would get better in six months, up from a low of 13.2% in May. Sixteen percent of respondents felt there would be more jobs in six months, up from a low of 13.8% in May. A lessened 16.9% expected income to increase in six months, down from a high of 19.6% in October of last year.

The expected inflation rate in twelve months eased to 6.0% from 6.1% in May. It remained below the 7.9% high in June of last year, but it was above the 4.4% low in January 2020.

A lessened 59.8% of respondents felt that interest rates would be higher in twelve months while an increased 13.3% thought they would be lower. A higher 34.7% of respondents thought that stock prices would be higher in twelve months and a lessened 30.2% thought they would be lower versus a high of 44.7% in July of last year.

The share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months eased to 5.5%, below the October high of 7.4%. It nevertheless remained higher than its 4.5% low in July of last year. The percentage of respondents planning to buy a major appliance eased to 46.8% and has fallen from a high of 52.4% in October.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver's **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

230627P2.jpg

230627Q2.jpg

- Expectations rise to six-month high.
- Present situation index improves to roughly two-year high.
- Inflation expectations continue to moderate.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Rebounds in June

230627J5.jpg

230627K5.jpg

House prices rose 0.7% during April following a 0.5% March gain, revised from 0.6%. These increases followed a 0.9% February rise, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index. The monthly increases were the strongest since the spring of last year. The 3.1% y/y gain remained well below its high of 19.2% in February 2022. Greatly reduced y/y gains were evident throughout the country.

Monthly strength in house prices was led in April by a 2.4% increase (6.0% y/y) in New England and the Middle Atlantic region where the price index rose 1.4% (5.5% y/y). House prices improved 0.9% (5.1% y/y) in the South Atlantic region of the country.

These gains were followed by a 0.7% rise (5.1% y/y) in the East North Central region and the Mountain region where the price index also rose 0.7% (-2.5% y/y). Home prices increased 0.6% (3.2% y/y) in the West South Central region of the country.

House prices were weakest during April in the West North Central region where the price index improved 0.4% (3.9% y/y) and in the East South Central region which posted a 0.3% gain (6.1% y/y). Home prices ticked 0.1% higher (-3.8% y/y) in the Pacific region of the country.

The FHFA house price index is a weighted purchase-only index that measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associated quarterly index includes refinancing the same kind of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included.

The FHFA data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

230627L5.jpg

230627M5.jpg

- Rise is fourth consecutive monthly increase.
- Strength spreads through most regions of country.
- Year-to-year home price gains continue to moderate.

U.S. FHFA House Prices Strengthen in April

230626A2.jpg

230626B2.jpg

Downward pressure on manufacturing sector activity in Texas eased modestly this month, according to the Manufacturing Outlook Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The general business activity index of -23.2 compared to -29.1 in May, but it has been negative since May of last year. An increased 11.3% of respondents reported improved business activity in June, up from 6.5% in May. A lessened 34.5% of respondents reported a worsening of business conditions.

The company outlook index of -10.7 in June compared to -22.3 in May but has been negative since March, 2022. An increased 17.2% of respondents expected improved business activity while a lessened 27.9% expected deterioration. Data were collected between June 13 and 21 from 85 Texas manufacturers.

The index of unfilled orders rose to -8.5 from -15.5 as an increased 13.4% of respondents reported an increase in backlogs while a lessened 21.9% reported a decline. The delivery time series rose to -4.3, but that failed to recover its May deterioration to -7.3, which was the lowest level in three years. The capital expenditures series rose to 0.3 from -3.7.

Most of the other series deteriorated in June. The shipments series plunged to -17.0 from -3.0 and was the lowest figure in roughly three years. The growth rate of orders index of -23.7 compared to -20.7 in May and has been negative since May of last year. The employment reading fell to 2.2 from 9.6, the lowest figure in four months. A lessened 17.0% of respondents reported more hiring while an increased 14.8% reported less. The production series declined to -4.2, down from a high of 48.8 in in March 2021.

Inflation indicators deteriorated this month. The index for prices received for finished goods fell to -1.9 from 0.4. It was the first negative rea	ding in three years and was down from a high of 51.3 in October 2021. A lessened 10.6% of respondents reported raising prices while a fairly steady 12 .5% reported lowering prices. The index of prices paid for raw materials collapsed to 1.4 this month from 13.8 in May and was significantly below an 84.1 high in November 2021.

Expectations for future manufacturing activity improved this month. The future general business activity index of -4.5 compared to -12.7 in May but was its 14th consecutive negative reading. The future production index improved sharply to 24.2, up from 3.0 in April while orders expectations also strengthened. The future employment index rose to its highest level in nine months. The future shipments index series surged and the future capital spending measure rose moderately. The wages expectations series fell slightly and remained well below its February 2022 high.

Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report rising activity, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase equals the number reporting a decrease. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

**Global Supply Chain Pressures and U.S. Inflation** from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found [here](https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/el2023-14.pdf).

230626C2.jpg

230626D2.jpg

- General business activity & expectations rise.
- Employment & production fall.
- Pricing & wage pressures weaken sharply.

Texas Manufacturing Activity Index Improves Slightly in June

230623A4.jpg

230623D4.jpg

The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) rose 1.0% during the four weeks ended June 23 to the highest level in six weeks. The index remained down 13.6% y/y as factory sector production fell 0.3% y/y through May, though output has firmed so far this year.

Prices in the **metals** group led the recent improvement with a 4.7% rise (-7.8% y/y) in the last four weeks. Tin prices jumped 15.5% (-5.5% y/y) and copper scrap prices increased 6.6% (-3.4% y/y). Lead prices rose 6.1% (7.5% y/y) while the cost of zinc improved 2.4% in four weeks (-33.7% y/y). Steel scrap prices rose 1.4% in the last four weeks (2.4% y/y). To the downside, aluminum prices fell 2.5% in four weeks (-11.6% y/y).

The **miscellaneous** group price index rose 1.2% (-15.6% y/y) during the last four weeks. Framing lumber prices increased 6.2% in four weeks (-40.2% y/y) but the cost of natural rubber fell 3.1% (-11.6% y/y) in four weeks.

Offsetting these gains, prices in the **crude oil & benzene** group fell 3.2% (-26.2% y/y) in the last four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined	 2.1% in four weeks to $70.99 per barrel and fell by roughly one-third y/y, while the price of the petro-chemical benzene weakened 11.8% (-53.3% y/y). Excluding crude oil & benzene, the industrial commodity price index rose 1.2% (-12.2% y/y) over the last four weeks.

Prices in the **textile** group weakened 0.6% during the last four weeks and fell 8.6% y/y. Cotton prices declined 3.9% and weakened 37.9% y/y. The cost of burlap improved 0.7% (-12.7% y/y) in the last four weeks.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

230623C4.jpg

230623B4.jpg

- Price movement is mixed amongst categories.
- Metals & lumber prices dominate rise.
- Oil & cotton prices decline.

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Price Index Improves

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.
