Viewpoints

The sharp drop in operating profits in 2020 mirrors the decline of 2008. But the mix of profits is markedly different, with the bulk of the decline centered in non-financial industries. The crisis of 2020 is centered more so in the [...]

The Federal Reserve's new policy of inflation "averaging" is a mistake. The trade-off nowadays is between inflation and financial stability. Buying more inflation will eventually create financial imbalances that over time will [...]

Having been at the forefront of globalisation in the last few decades emerging economies in Asia are now under severe strain. That globalisation trend after all was already stalling before the Coronavirus made its mark on China. And [...]

At this week's Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to announce a new policy approach that is intended to give policymakers more flexibility and time to achieve their inflation [...]

State labor markets generally showed further substantive improvement in July. Most saw statistically significant drops in their unemployment rate, led by Michigan's spectacular 6.2 percentage-point plunge. Idaho, Nebraska, and Utah [...]

With each passing day, the failure of Congress and the Administration to reach a deal on extending fiscal stimulus creates a bigger and bigger hole in consumer cash flow. So far investors have brushed off the stalemate. But that’s a [...]

What follows are my comments on various US economic data that have been released recently. Let's start with July 2020 nominal retail sales. As shown in Chart 1, the level of July nominal retail sales exceeded its pre-COVID level set [...]

Retail sales hit new record highs in June and again in July. Record retail sales reflect a new normal in consumer spending patterns. Bans and restrictions emanating from the pandemic have boosted retail sales while curtailing spending [...]