Import Prices Rise Driven by Energy

Import prices grew a less-than-expected 0.2% during April (-0.2% year-on-year) following an unrevised 0.6% gain in March. Prices were up 1.0% in February. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.7% increase in April. These figures are not seasonally adjusted and do not include import duties.

The rise in import prices last month was driven by a 6.1% jump (7.0% y/y) in petroleum import costs, followed gains of 10.2% and 5.3% in February and March. Nonpetroleum import prices declined 0.6% (-1.0 y/y) after 0.2% growth in the prior two months. Among end-use categories, industrial supplies & materials costs excluding petroleum fell 3.3% (-2.6% y/y). Capital goods prices decreased 0.4% (-1.2% y/y). Motor vehicle & parts prices edged down 0.1% (-0.6% y/y). Nonauto consumer goods prices declined 0.3% (-0.6% y/y). Meanwhile, foods, feed and beverage prices jumped 2.8% (1.2% y/y).

Export prices increased a less-than expected 0.2% (0.3% y/y), following a slightly downwardly-revised 0.6% gain in March (was 0.7%). Forecasters' anticipated 0.6% growth in April. Agricultural commodities prices dropped 1.5% last month (-2.8% y/y), more than reversing March's 1.0% rise. Nonagricultural export costs grew 0.4% (0.7% y/y), the third consecutive monthly gain following three months of decline from November to January. The cost of industrial supplies & materials rose 0.9% (0.1% y/y). Motor vehicle & parts prices were up 0.2% (0.6% y/y). Capital goods and nonauto consumer goods prices were both unchanged (1.0% y/y and 0.1% y/y respectively). Meanwhile, nonagricultural food (ie fish) & distilled beverage prices fell 2.0% (-2.9% y/y).

The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.

In February, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco estimated that tariffs implemented on Chinese imports at that time added 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to consumer price inflation and 0.4 ppt to price inflation for business investment goods. They forecasted an across the board 25% tariff on all Chinese imports would raise consumer prices by an additional 0.3 ppt and investment prices an additional 1 ppt.