Global| Nov 20 2007Italy's Orders Growth Slows as Foreign Orders Hold Erratically Higher
Summary
Italy’s order trends are not as clear as the slowing in some other Euro area countries. True, the 3-month growth rates are lower and sharply lower especially for foreign orders. But the chart on the left shows how erratic foreign [...]
Italy’s order trends are not as clear as the slowing in some other Euro area countries. True, the 3-month growth rates are lower and sharply lower especially for foreign orders. But the chart on the left shows how erratic foreign orders have been. Domestic orders that have slowed by less are negative and in a clearer slowdown mode. On balance Italy’s pattern looks as though its showdown is of domestic, not of foreign, origin. Domestic orders have been weak and are now in negative territory. Sales, which have been relatively firmer and even accelerated in the recent three months, fell sharply in September after a strong rise in August. Orders give us a clearer picture of slowing growth in Italy. The foreign sector is unclear. But domestic orders are sending a pretty clear message of slowdown in progress.
| Italy Orders | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar exept m/m | Sep-07 | Aug-07 | Jul-07 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo |
| Total | 0.3% | -0.8% | -0.6% | -4.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% |
| Foreign | 5.7% | -4.0% | -3.5% | -8.1% | 15.7% | 17.8% |
| Domestic | -2.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | -2.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Memo: | ||||||
| Sales | -3.6% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 5.9% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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