Global| Mar 13 2019Mixed U.S. Durable Goods Report
Summary
New orders for durable goods unexpectedly rose 0.4% (8.4% year-on-year) during January following small offsetting revisions in November and December. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.8% decline in January. A 13.1% [...]
New orders for durable goods unexpectedly rose 0.4% (8.4% year-on-year) during January following small offsetting revisions in November and December. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.8% decline in January. A 13.1% jump in volatile aircraft orders (34.4% y/y) drove the gain; orders for motor vehicles decreased 1.0% (+9.7% y/y). Excluding the transportation sector, durable goods bookings edged down 0.1% (+4.5% y/y). Nondefense capital goods orders less aircraft, which is a forward-looking indicator of capital spending, gained 0.8% (4.1% y/y), following declines in the previous two months. In the fourth quarter, inflation-adjusted nonresidential fixed investment grew at a 6.2% annual rate (7.2% y/y).
Machinery orders increased 1.4% in January (3.4% y/y). Electrical equipment rose 1.7% (6.6% y/y), while fabricated metals were unchanged (7.0% y/y). Orders for primary metals fell 1.5% (+8.6% y/y) and computers declined 1.3% (+5.7% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods decreased 0.5% during January (+6.0% y/y) following a slightly downwardly-revised 0.7% gain. Excluding the transportation sector, shipments were unchanged (4.3% y/y). Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft grew 0.8% (4.4% y/y).
Unfilled orders for durable goods edged up 0.1% (4.3% y/y); excluding transportation, order backlogs also grew 0.1% (4.7% y/y). Inventories of durable goods increased 0.4% (4.9% y/y). Excluding transportation, inventories gained 0.2% (5.5% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | 0.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 5.4 | -1.7 |
| Transportation | 1.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 16.1 | 9.6 | 3.4 | -0.7 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -0.1 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 6.5 | -2.3 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 2.5 | 4.4 | 0.2 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 9.1 | -5.8 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 0.8 | -0.9 | -1.1 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 6.7 | -4.5 |
| Shipments | -0.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | -2.4 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.0 | -1.2 |
| Inventories | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.6 | -3.0 |
Gerald D. Cohen
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Gerald Cohen provides strategic vision and leadership of the translational economic research and policy initiatives at the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise.
He has worked in both the public and private sectors focusing on the intersection between financial markets and economic fundamentals. He was a Senior Economist at Haver Analytics from January 2019 to February 2021. During the Obama Administration Gerald was Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomic Analysis at the U.S. Department of Treasury where he helped formulate and evaluate the impact of policy proposals on the U.S. economy. Prior to Treasury, he co-managed a global macro fund at Ziff Brothers Investments.
Gerald holds a bachelor’s of science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University and is a contributing author to 30-Second Money as well as a co-author of Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy.
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