Global| Nov 02 2007PMIs in MFG are All Losing Momentum… but Still Showing Growth
Summary
Is the thrill gone?EMU indexes stand more or less mid range. In October the MFG PMIs are losing momentum. The chart on the left shows the year-over-year percentage drops in the levels of the index for key EMU countries. Although the [...]
Is the thrill gone?EMU indexes stand more or less mid range.
In October the MFG PMIs are losing momentum. The chart on the
left shows the year-over-year percentage drops in the levels of the
index for key EMU countries. Although the various nations are at
different levels in terms of their respective MFG indexes they are all
declining in a very sympathetic bunched fashion.
The big countries - Germany, France, Italy and Spain – all
have indexes clustered just north of their 50 breakeven marks. Spain
has slipped below 50, the breakeven point for expansion/contraction. In
terms of their respective range of values we find France and Spain are
lower in their range percentiles. France’s raw reading of 50.54 is in
the bottom 38 percentile of its range even though that PMI reading is
above 50. The MFG PMI in France has simply tended to be stronger than
in other countries.
Some of the smaller countries (Ireland, Greece, Austria and
the Netherlands) have PMI ratings that are much higher in their
respective ranges with raw PMI scores as high as 56. Greece has a PMI
reading that ranks in the top 79th percentile of its range. Right now,
the small countries of Europe are the ones pressing the advance for MFG
for EMU as a region.
The UK, an EU member but not an EMU member, has a raw PMI
score of 52.93, higher than any large EMU county and a range reading of
68.8% showing that the UK is also strong in its range of values.
| NTC MFG Indexes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct-07 | Sep-07 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | Percentile | |
| Euro-13 | 51.52 | 53.21 | 53.02 | 54.09 | 54.96 | 52.2% |
| Germany | 51.67 | 54.87 | 54.17 | 55.44 | 56.67 | 55.2% |
| France | 50.54 | 50.51 | 51.20 | 52.50 | 53.27 | 38.1% |
| Italy | 51.34 | 52.39 | 52.45 | 53.28 | 53.74 | 56.1% |
| Spain | 49.58 | 50.80 | 50.85 | 52.35 | 54.27 | 44.7% |
| Austria | 52.77 | 55.37 | 54.21 | 54.00 | 55.24 | 60.8% |
| Greece | 55.27 | 53.83 | 54.22 | 54.03 | 53.13 | 79.6% |
| Ireland | 52.27 | 54.35 | 53.66 | 53.33 | 52.94 | 67.9% |
| Netherlands | 56.15 | 56.36 | 56.23 | 56.98 | 56.72 | 78.6% |
| EU | ||||||
| UK | 52.93 | 54.73 | 54.54 | 54.75 | 54.21 | 68.8% |
| percentile is over range since March 2000 | ||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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