Global| Jun 28 2019U.S. Chicago Business Barometer Falls to Three-and-a-Half Year Low
Summary
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer dropped to 49.7 in June from an unrevised 54.2 in May. This is the lowest reading since February 2015 and suggests little growth or even contracting activity in the Chicago area. The [...]
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer dropped to 49.7 in June from an unrevised 54.2 in May. This is the lowest reading since February 2015 and suggests little growth or even contracting activity in the Chicago area. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 53.3. The Chicago Purchasing Managers figures are diffusion indexes where readings above 50 indicate growth.
Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Chicago Business Barometer with similar methodology as the ISM Composite Index. This index fell to 52.0, a two-and-a-half year low, but at least suggests continued growth in the Chicago area, though at a meaningfully slower pace than last year (this measure averaged 60.7 last year). The Chicago index has a 68% correlation with the national ISM Manufacturing Index, which is scheduled for release on Monday.
All of the output related indexes declined, led by a 9.0 point drop in new orders to a two-and-a-half year low of 49.6. Production fell 4.2 points to 53.1 while supplier deliveries declined 5.1 points. Inventories increased 3.5 points to 54.9. The prices paid measure rose to 56.4, the second consecutive gain after hitting a three-year low of 50.8 in March.
The employment index gained 2.0 points to 52.0. The proportion of survey respondents that indicated higher employment rebounded to 23% from 17% while the share of respondents cutting payrolls was unchanged at 17% (the respondent share data are not-seasonally adjusted).
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. Summary data are contained in Haver's USECON database, with detail including the ISM-style index in the SURVEYS database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is available in AS1REPNA.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun '18 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Business Barometer | 49.7 | 54.2 | 52.6 | 63.8 | 62.4 | 60.7 | 53.0 |
| ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer | 52.0 | 54.5 | 52.6 | 61.0 | 60.7 | 59.0 | 51.9 |
| Production | 53.1 | 57.3 | 50.5 | 64.7 | 64.5 | 64.2 | 54.5 |
| New Orders | 49.6 | 58.6 | 54.6 | 64.3 | 63.8 | 63.6 | 55.6 |
| Order Backlogs | 40.7 | 41.1 | 51.2 | 61.2 | 58.0 | 55.2 | 47.1 |
| Inventories | 54.9 | 51.4 | 49.9 | 53.9 | 55.3 | 54.9 | 47.2 |
| Employment | 52.0 | 50.0 | 50.4 | 55.9 | 55.2 | 52.9 | 49.4 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 50.3 | 55.4 | 57.4 | 66.1 | 64.8 | 59.4 | 52.8 |
| Prices Paid | 56.4 | 53.8 | 50.8 | 75.9 | 74.0 | 64.1 | 53.2 |
Gerald D. Cohen
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Gerald Cohen provides strategic vision and leadership of the translational economic research and policy initiatives at the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise.
He has worked in both the public and private sectors focusing on the intersection between financial markets and economic fundamentals. He was a Senior Economist at Haver Analytics from January 2019 to February 2021. During the Obama Administration Gerald was Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomic Analysis at the U.S. Department of Treasury where he helped formulate and evaluate the impact of policy proposals on the U.S. economy. Prior to Treasury, he co-managed a global macro fund at Ziff Brothers Investments.
Gerald holds a bachelor’s of science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University and is a contributing author to 30-Second Money as well as a co-author of Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy.
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