Global| Jan 26 2017U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Increase
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims rose to 259,000 (-5.2% y/y) during the week ended January 21 from 237,000 claims in the prior week, revised from 234,000. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey had called for [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims rose to 259,000 (-5.2% y/y) during the week ended January 21 from 237,000 claims in the prior week, revised from 234,000. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey had called for 247,000 claims. The four-week moving average of claims eased to 245,400, the lowest point since November 1973. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance increased to 2.100 million (-7.3% y/y) in the week of January 14 from 2.059 million. The four-week moving average of claimants eased to 2.092 million, but has risen slightly during the prior two months.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.5%, which has been the average since September.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continue to vary widely. For the week ended January 7, the lowest rates were in Florida (0.54%), North Carolina (0.67%), Tennessee (0.81%), Virginia (0.85%), South Dakota (0.96%) and Nebraska (1.01%). The highest rates were found in California (2.58%), Pennsylvania (2.83%), Connecticut (2.98%), New Jersey (3.05%), Montana (3.13%) and Alaska (4.92%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Stuck in Part-Time Employment from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 01/21/17 | 01/14/17 | 01/07/17 | Y/Y % | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 259 | 237 | 249 | -5.2 | 263 | 278 | 308 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,100 | 2,059 | -7.3 | 2,136 | 2,267 | 2,599 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.5 | 1.5 |
1.6 |
1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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