Global| Mar 29 2017U.S. Pending Home Sales Jump
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales increased 5.5% in February to an index level of 112.3, the highest point since April 2016. The NAR suggested that warm temperatures helped lift sales. The [...]
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales increased 5.5% in February to an index level of 112.3, the highest point since April 2016. The NAR suggested that warm temperatures helped lift sales. The gain followed declines in two of the prior three months. The index, which is reported on a 2001=100 basis, hovered in a range near 109 for the past year before the February increase.
The pending sales figures showed strength across regions. The index in the Midwest jumped 11.4% (-0.6% y/y) to 110.8, the highest reading since April of last year. Meanwhile, pending sales in the Northeast gained 3.4% (6.6% y/y) to a reading of 102.1, the highest level since April 2006. In the South, the index increased 4.3% (4.2% y/y) to 127.8, and the index in the West rose 3.1% (-0.2% y/y) following a 9.8% decline. The latest level of 97.5 was 8.5% below the July high.
The pending home sales index measures home sales when the sales contract is signed, analogous to the new home sales report. In contrast, existing home sales are recorded when the sale is closed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity parallels the level of closed existing home sales in the following two months. The series dates back to 2001, and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database.
| Pending Home Sales (SA) | Feb | Jan | Nov | Feb Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 112.3 | 106.4 | 109.5 | 2.6 | 109.8 | 108.8 | 101.2 |
| Northeast | 102.1 | 98.7 | 96.5 | 6.6 | 96.3 | 90.7 | 83.9 |
| Midwest | 110.8 | 99.5 | 104.7 | -0.6 | 107.3 | 107.1 | 100.3 |
| South | 127.8 | 122.5 | 122.0 | 4.2 | 122.8 | 123.0 | 115.5 |
| West | 97.5 | 94.6 | 104.9 | -0.2 | 102.5 | 102.4 | 93.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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