U.K. Inflation Is Too High and Not Falling

Inflation in the U.K. measured by the CPIH rose by 0.3% in July after rising 0.3% in June; these two months reflect a step up from May’s increase of 0.1%. The CPI excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco (core) rose by a sharp 0.5% in July after rising 0.3% in June and 0.2% in May. The pattern and path of the core inflation rate for the U.K. is much more stubborn and worse than for the headline (which, itself is high and stubborn). Nonetheless, in its last meeting, the Bank of England instituted a rate reduction amid split views among Monetary Policy Committee members. At the time, it was noted that the rate cut may turn out to be an isolated one, and it could be some time before the next reduction comes around. A number of members (MPCs) had thought it was premature to cut rates and you can clearly see why by looking at the level and trend for inflation now.

The BOE rate cut was criticized by some as having substantial political overtones and the same charge was made in Japan about its recent rate hike. Meanwhile, with presidential elections coming in the U.S., and inflation over the top of its target for over 40 months and running, the Fed has a policy that seems to be tilted toward producing rate cuts. While, so far, U.S. data seem to be ‘somewhat amenable’ towards that glide path, it still is not a locked-deal that the Fed is going to cut rates in September, although some people think so. Not only does the U.S. have a long period of inflation overshooting but both presidential candidates seem likely to further expand the already massive U.S. fiscal deficit. What exactly should Fed policy consider? Legacy misses? Prospective profligacy? Or short-term inflation that is behaving? Politics seemed to be intruding on monetary policy globally but also in response to very separate and individual national pressures. It’s ice cream everywhere, but in each country a different flavor of the month.

Sequentially headline U.K. inflation is up 3.1% over 12 months; it's up to a 3.2% annual rate over six months and steps down ever-so-slightly to a 2.9% annual rate over three months. The core rate, referred to above, is up by 4.1% over 12 months, accelerates to a 4.9% annual rate over six months, then steps back to a 4.1% annual rate over three months. The core rate is clearly an excessive rate of change, and the headline is certainly stubborn and possibly stuck at its current excessive pace.

Globally, economies have slowed in the wake of the recovery from the Covid recessions; governments are eager to try to either restore or to preserve growth quickly. The task of making monetary policy has been greatly complicated by having had COVID and having had strong responses from fiscal and monetary policy, a legacy that currently is in the late stages of producing lingering stimulus. The success of Covid stimulus in reviving growth has emboldened policy officials. In addition, as the Covid process was winding down, a war was started by Russia by invading Ukraine and that created a secondary inflation surge it has made policy more difficult. Of course, during this period, the U.K. was also undergoing a transition known as Brexit. This is just a little bit like taking all the colors on your palette and mixing them together and wondering what sort of wonderful result you'll get, and being disappointed that all you wind up with is muddy brown.

Inflation diffusion measures the breadth of inflation and shows that inflation is decelerating on a timeline in more places when it's below the 50% mark. Diffusion for the U.K. shows that monthly inflation from May to June to July, which had indicated deceleration was now transformed to acceleration as diffusion in July moved up to 54.5% after having approached the neutral 50% mark with a 45.5% reading in June. Sequential inflation, which compares inflation over three-months to six-months and over six-months to 12-months and over 12-months to the 12-months before, shows a tempered but rising trend. Over 12 months there was a significant deceleration of inflation with diffusion at only 18%, but that stepped up sharply to 63.6% over six months and this has since moderated to just below neutral for a reading of 45.5% over three months. This is not surprising since headline inflation in three-months compared to six-months is slightly weaker at 2.9%, down from 3.2%, and 3-month inflation for the core CPIH is down to 4.1% from 4.9%. So, the headline/core are pointed to some deceleration and having diffusion slightly below 50 suggests that most of the components are moving in that direction as well. That is good news. However, the movement, even though it's in the right direction, appears to be slow. Inflation is still quite stubborn at uncomfortably high levels. U.K. monetary policy is in a rough patch and seems likely to be there for a while.