U.S. CPI Firms During January
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Higher shelter costs fuel latest upturn.
- Goods price inflation is tame.
- Energy prices rebound; food prices remain strong.
The Consumer Price Index rose an expected 0.5% during January following a 0.1% uptick in December, revised from -0.1%. It was the strongest increase in three months. It left the y/y increase at 6.4%, remaining down from June’s high of 9.1%. The 0.4% rise in prices excluding food & energy also was as expected and followed a 0.4% December increase. The 5.6% y/y gain was down from a 6.6% September high. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The CPI less food, energy & shelter, another measure of core pricing power, increased 0.2% during January following three consecutive months of 0.1% gain. The 4.0% y/y increase is below the 7.6% peak in February of last year.
Service costs increased 0.5% (7.2% y/y). Shelter prices rose 0.7% (7.9% y/y) as owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.7% (7.8% y/y). Rents rose 0.8% (8.0% y/y). Education & communication prices increased 0.5% (2.8% y/y), while transportation service prices rose 0.9% (14.6% y/y). Recreation service prices improved 0.7% (5.8% y/y), but medical care service costs fell 0.7% (+3.0% y/y).
Goods prices excluding food & energy rose 0.1% in January (1.4 % y/y). Used car & truck prices fell 1.9% (-11.6% y/y) but new vehicle prices improved 0.2% (5.8% y/y). Home furnishing prices rose 0.5% (6.4% y/y) while appliance prices strengthened 1.4% both m/m and y/y. Apparel prices increased 0.8% (3.1% y/y) and recreation product prices edged 0.1% higher (3.3% y/y) for a second straight month. Medical care product prices rose 1.1% (3.4% y/y) while sporting goods prices gained 0.5% (1.5% y/y).
Energy prices surged 2.0% last month (8.7% y/y) and followed declines in five of the preceding six months. Gasoline prices rose 2.4% (1.5% y/y). Fuel oil costs fell 1.2% (NSA) but rose 27.7% y/y. Natural gas prices jumped 6.7% (26.7% y/y) and electricity prices increased 0.5% (11.9% y/y).
Food prices rose 0.5% in January (10.1% y/y) as egg prices strengthened 8.5% (70.1% y/y). Meat, poultry & fish prices eased slightly (+4.2% y/y) but cereal & bakery product prices surged 1.0% (15.6% y/y). Fruit & vegetable prices fell 0.5% (+7.2% y/y) and dairy prices were little changed (14.0% y/y). Nonalcoholic beverage prices rose 0.4% (13.1% y/y).
The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
Global