U.S. Import and Export Prices Declined in March

Import prices fell 0.6% m/m in March after a downwardly revised 0.2% m/m decline in February (previously -0.1%), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The March reading was the eighth monthly fall in the past nine months to the lowest index level since January 2022. The year-on-year rate fell to -4.6% in March, its lowest since May 2020, from -1.1% in February. Export prices fell 0.3% m/m, their first decline in three months, after rising 0.3% m/m in January and 0.4% m/m in February. The y/y rate fell to 4.8%, its lowest since May 2020. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had looked for 0.2% monthly declines in both import and export prices in March.

The decline in import prices continued to be led by fuels. The price of imported fuels fell 2.9% m/m in March, their ninth consecutive monthly decline, after a 5.7% monthly drop in February. These prices were down 27.5% from a year ago. Prices of imports excluding fuels also declined in March, falling 0.5% m/m, their first monthly decline in four months and the largest since July 2022. These prices were down 1.5% y/y, their first annual decline since June 2020. By end-use categories, the March decline in import prices was widespread with prices in each category falling. The decline in imported fuel prices drove down prices of imported industrial supplies by 2.0% m/m in March but even after excluding fuels, industrial supplies prices were down 1.5% m/m after having edged up 0.1% m/m in February. Prices of imported foods, feeds and beverages fell 0.5% m/m in March, their first decline in five months.

The 0.3% monthly fall in export prices in March was led by a 1.5% decline in agricultural prices after a 1.2% m/m increase in February. Lower prices for corn, soybeans, wheat, and fruit in March more than offset higher meat prices. The y/y change fell to -2.3% in March, its first negative reading since August 2020. Prices of exported nonagricultural commodities also fell but by a much more modest 0.2% m/m. Lower prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials (-0.5% m//m) and nonagricultural foods (-1.1% m/m) in March more than offset slightly higher prices for capital goods (+0.2% m/m) and consumer goods ex autos (+0.1%). The 5.2% y/y decline in nonag export prices was the largest since May 2020.

The import and export price series can be found in Haver’s USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.