U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fall Sharply in Latest Week
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Initial claims stand at lowest level in five weeks.
- Continuing claims fall to four-week low.
- Insured unemployment rate reverses earlier week’s increase.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 201,000 (-7.4% Y/Y)) during the week ended February 17 from 213,000 in the prior week, revised from 212,000. Claims in the week ended February 3 were 220,000. The latest amount was the lowest since 189,000 in the week of January 13. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 217,000 initial claims in the latest week. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 215,250 in the latest week from 218,750 in the prior week. It was higher than the 202,500 low in the third week of January.
Insured unemployment (continued weeks claimed) fell to 1.862 million from 1.889 million in the prior week, revised from 1.895 million. The four-week moving average of continuing claims rose to 1.878 million from 1.869 million in the prior week, higher than the 1.834 low in the second week of January.
The insured unemployment rate fell to 1.2% in the week of February 10 and reversed the increase to 1.3% in the prior week. This rate reflects the amount of continuing claims as a percentage of covered employment, which was 149.9 million.
Insured unemployment rates vary widely by states and territories. In the week of February 3, the highest rates were in New Jersey (2.89%), Rhode Island (2.72%), Minnesota (2.52%), California (2.46%) and Massachusetts (2.39%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.40%), Virginia (0.42%), North Carolina (0.44%), Kansas (0.46%) and Alabama (0.50%). Rates in other major states include Illinois (2.23%), Connecticut (1.96%), Pennsylvania (2.05%), New York (2.03%) and Texas (1.05%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They go back to 1967 and are contained in Haver’s WEEKLY database and summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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