U.S. Retail Sales Decline Broadly in March
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Lower motor vehicle sales & gasoline prices continue to weigh on spending.
- Online sales strengthen again.
- Sales elsewhere are broadly lower.
Consumers continued to spend cautiously during March. Retail sales fell 1.0% (+2.9% y/y) following a 0.2% February dip, revised from -0.4%. These declines followed a 3.1% January surge, revised from 3.2% reported last month. The March decline exceeded a 0.3% weakening expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Despite declines during the last two months, strength in January lifted total Q1 retail sales by 1.7% following a 0.2% Q4 gain. Sales excluding motor vehicles declined 0.8% (+3.6% y/y) after holding steady in February, revised from -0.1%. Sales rose a little-revised 2.3% in January. Expectations for March had been for a 0.1% dip.
Last month’s sales decline reflected a 1.6% drop (+0.1% y/y) in motor vehicle purchases after weakening 1.3% in February. Sales surged 6.8% in January. The latest decline compared to a 1.1% drop in unit vehicle sales which followed a 6.6% February decline. Gasoline station sales fell 5.5% (-14.2% y/y) as prices slid. It was the fifth consecutive monthly decline.
Sales amongst other stores were mixed. Spending in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline & restaurants, fell 0.3% (+5.5% y/y) after strengthening 0.5% in February and 2.4% in January. Sales here declined in both December & November.
Sales of nonstore retailers rose 1.9% (12.3% y/y) last month following strong increases in each of the prior two months. Sporting goods, hobby & book store sales improved 0.2% (3.0% y/y) after a 0.7% February decline. To the downside, furniture & home furnishing store sales weakened 1.2% (-2.4% y/y) after they fell 2.7% in February. Electronics and appliance store sales declined 2.1% (-10.3% y/y) following a 1.5% weakening. General merchandise store sales fell 3.0% (+2.4% y/y) after rising in each of the prior three months. Within that category, department store sales declined 2.5% (-1.2% y/y) after a 3.7% February decline. Also falling were apparel sales which were off 1.7% (-1.8% y/y) following a 2.0% February decline. Building materials & garden equipment store sales fell 2.1% (-3.5% y/y) after little change in February.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales rose 0.3% (7.1% y/y) after a 1.1% February strengthening. Food & beverage store sales eased 0.1% last month (+5.0% y/y) after rising 0.8% in February.
Consumer spending at restaurants & drinking places improved negligibly last month (13.0% y/y) after falling 1.6% in February.
Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
