- The monthly index fell to -0.49 in October with the 3-month average falling to -0.22.
- This indicates that the economy grew slower than its longer-term trend.
- All four major categories made negative contributions.
- However, the October value is still well above the -0.70 value that historically has been associated with recession.
Introducing
Sandy Batten
in:Our Authors
Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
Publications by Sandy Batten
USA| Nov 21 2023Chicago Fed National Activity Index Fell in October
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
- The headline index increased by 3.1 points but remained negative.
- It has been in negative territory for 16 of the past 18 months.
- The new orders sub-index fell but remained positive while the shipments sub-index collapsed into negative territory.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Nov 16 2023U.S. Unemployment Claims Continued to Climb
- Weekly claims increased to 231,000 in the week ended November 11, their highest reading since mid-August.
- Continuing claims also rose further to 1.865 million in the week ended November 4, their highest level since November 27, 2021.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
- The headline PPI fell 0.5% m/m in October, the largest monthly decline since April 2020.
- Gasoline prices plummeted 15.3% m/m after having risen 25% in the previous two months.
- The core index edged up a less-than-expected 0.1% m/m.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
- Applications rose 2.8% w/w with increases in both purchases and refinancings.
- Mortgage interest rates fell further to their lowest levels since late September.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
- Job openings edged up 0.6% in September on top of a downwardly revised 6.5% increase in August.
- Hires were little changed.
- Total separations fell 2.8% led by a 9.8% drop in layoffs.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
- Headline index was unchanged at -8, indicating that pace of decline was the same.
- Most components remained in negative territory.
- Expectations for six months ahead unchanged at an anemic 1.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
- Total orders rose a much larger-than-expected 4.7% m/m.
- Boosted by a 92.5% m/m jump in nondefense aircraft orders.
- Core capex orders increased 0.6% m/m while shipments were unchanged.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Oct 19 2023Initial Unemployment Claims Fell—Lowest Since January
- Claims unexpectedly fell to 198,000 in the week ended October 14.
- This is the lowest weekly level since January 21.
- Continuing claims edged up to their highest level since July 8, but remain low historically.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Oct 11 2023U.S. Mortgage Applications Edged Up as Rates Continued to Rise
- Total applications edged up 0.6% w/w after two consecutive weekly declines.
- Mortgage interest rates continued to rise with the 15-year and 30-year rates reaching 23-year highs.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Oct 04 2023U.S. Factory Orders Rebounded in August
- Total factory orders rose 1.2% m/m after a 2.1% m/m decline in July.
- Transportation orders slipped 0.3%, again led by weaker orders for nondefense aircraft.
- Durable goods orders edged up 0.1% m/m while nondurable orders jumped 2.1% m/m.
- Shipments increased 1.3% m/m, their fourth consecutive monthly gain.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Sep 14 2023U.S. PPI Jumped in August, Driven by Gasoline Prices
- Larger-than-expected 0.7% m/m increase in August.
- About 50% of overall increase attributable to 20% m/m surge in gasoline prices.
- PPI excluding food and energy prices rose just 0.2% m/m.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
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