Tom Moeller

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The number of job openings dropped 3.9% during March to 9.590 million from 9.974 million in February, revised from 9.931 million. Falling for three consecutive months, the latest level was the lowest level since April 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings & Labor Turnover report. These declines left openings 20.3% below the March 2022 high of 12.027 million. The job openings rate (job openings as a percentage of the sum of establishment employment plus openings) fell to 5.8% from 6.0% in February. The series high was 7.4% in March 2022.

Within sectors, the job openings rate in construction fell to 4.1% in March from 4.9% during February. The rate eased to 5.1% from 5.2% in manufacturing and to 4.8% from 5.5% in trade, transportation & utilities. The rate in professional services weakened to 7.0% from 7.5%. In the education & health sector, the job openings rate fell to 6.8% from 7.0%, but in the leisure & hospitality sector the job openings rate rose to 8.3%.

New hires were little changed m/m (-6.5% y/y) at 6.149 million in March. That followed a 2.8% decline in February and a 1.2% January increase. It left the level of new hires 10.1% below the November 2021 high of 6.843 million.

The hiring rate held steady at 4.0% during March. It reached a peak of 4.6% in November 2021. The hiring rate in leisure & hospitality fell to 6.7% from 7.2% but in the professional & business sector, it rose to 5.2% from 4.9%. In retail trade, the hiring rate eased to 4.5% from 4.7% while in construction, it improved to 5.1% from 4.7%. The hiring rate in education & health services edged higher to 3.5% from 3.4%. In the factory sector, the hiring rate weakened to 3.0% from 3.2% in February.

The total number of job separations rose 1.6% (-4.2% y/y) during March to 5.932 million from 5.841 million in February. The jobs separations rate held a 3.8%. Layoffs and discharges, involuntary separations, rose 15.9% (29.4% y/y) to 1.805 from 1.557 million. The layoff & discharge rate rose to 1.2% from 1.0%.

The number of jobs quit declined 3.2% (-13.5% y/y) to 3.851 million. Quits in the financial sector rose 15.9% (-23.9% y/y) while in retail trade quits eased 0.2% (-12.6% y/y). Factory sector quits fell 1.1% (19.2% y/y) but in the leisure & hospitality sector they fell 20.2% (-18.4% y/y). The quit rate eased to 2.5% and remained below the April 2022 high of 3.0%.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) are available in Haver's **USECON** database.

- Openings level is lowest in nearly two years.
- Declines are widespread.
- Hiring declines are mixed amongst industries.
- Layoffs & discharges surge.


JOLTS: Job Openings Continue to Fall in March

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Retail gasoline prices fell to $3.60 per gallon (-13.9% y/y) last week from $3.66 during the prior week. The cost remained above the $3.09 low at the end of December but was below the mid-June 2022 peak of $5.01 per gallon. The retail price of diesel fuel declined to $4.02 per gallon (-27.1% y/y) last week from $4.08 per gallon in the previous week. It reached a recent peak of $5.81 per gallon in the third week of June 2022.

The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to $76.31 per barrel (-25.8% y/y) in the week ended April 28 from $79.22 in the prior week. Prices remained above the low of $74.29 in the first week of January. Yesterday, the price was $75.66 per barrel. The average price of Brent crude oil declined to $81.40 per barrel (-21.7% y/y) last week after easing to $84.62 per barrel in the previous week. The price peaked at $127.40 in mid-June of 2022.

The price of natural gas was unchanged at $2.21/mmbtu (-67.5% y/y) in the week ended April 28. Prices have fallen from their recent high of $6.78/mmbtu in the third week of December and from $9.56/mmbtu in the last week of August of 2022. Yesterday, the price was $2.21/mmbtu.

In the four weeks ended April 21, gasoline demand rose 3.9% from a year earlier after rising 3.6% y/y in the prior week. Demand for all petroleum products rose 2.2% y/y in the latest four weeks in contrast to the 14.4% annual growth at the end of 2021. Crude oil input to refineries held steady y/y but has been falling since January.

Gasoline inventories declined 4.2% y/y in the week ended April 21 compared to a 3.8% y/y decline in the prior week, while crude oil inventories fell 14.4% y/y. Inventories of distillate fuel oil rose 3.9% y/y, but residual crude oil inventories increased 15.6% y/y.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories in the week ended April 21 fell to 24.4 days from 24.9 days in the previous week. It was the lowest level since late-November. The supply of crude oil fell to 29.3 days from 29.7, still above its low of 25.3 days at the end of June 2022.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database.

- Retail gasoline prices weaken.
- Crude oil prices decline to four-week low.
- Natural gas prices steady.

U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Decline

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The U.S. ISM manufacturing index rose to 47.1 during April from 46.3 in March, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The index failed to recover all of the March decline. It stood below the break-even level of 50 for the sixth straight month and it remained under the peak of 63.8 in March 2021. The figure remained at the lowest level since May 2020. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 46.5 in April.

Movement amongst the component series was mixed last month. The employment index rose to 50.2 from 46.9, placing it at the highest level since January. The figure recently peaked at 56.9 in March 2021. An increased 17.9% (NSA) of respondents reported higher employment and a lessened 15.6% reported decline.

The new orders index improved to 45.7 in April from 44.3, but remained below 53.8 twelve months earlier. It was the eighth consecutive month below the break-even level of 50. An increased 25.2% (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders last month while an increased 26.6% reported a decline. The production index rose to 48.9 from 47.8 in March. It stood at 54.4 in April of last year. An increased 24.4% (NSA) of respondents reported higher production levels while a fairly steady 19.6% reported lower output.

Working lower, the inventories series fell to 46.3 from 47.5. It has collapsed from 57.0 in November of 2021. Just 15.1% of respondents added to inventories while 22.5% lowered inventory levels. The supplier deliveries index slipped to 44.6 from 44.8. It represented the quickest pace of product delivery since March 2009.

The prices index improved to 53.2 (NSA) in April from 49.2 in March. It stood well below its high of 92.1 in June of 2021, though it remained above the December 2022 low of 39.4. An increased 26.3% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices while a lessened 20.0% reported price declines.

In other ISM series, the new export orders index rose to 49.8 in April from 47.6 in March. It remained down from the recent high of 57.1 in February 2022. The imports index rose to 49.9 and recovered its decline from 47.9 in March. It nevertheless was below the high of 61.0 in June 2021. The order backlog index slipped to 43.	1 from 43.9, below the break-even level of 50 for the seventh consecutive month.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 manufacturing purchasing executives from 20 industries, which correspond to their contribution to GDP in 50 states. These data are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver's **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Index recovers a bit after hitting three-year low.
- Employment, new orders & production improve.
- Pricing power hits nine-month high.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Improves in April

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The value of construction put in place increased 0.3% during March after falling 0.3% in February, revised from -0.1%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The y/y increase weakened to 3.8%, down from an 11.7% y/y high last February. A 0.1% March increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Private construction rose 0.3% (1.0% y/y) in March after declining in each of the prior three months. Residential private construction eased 0.2% (-10.0% y/y), the tenth straight monthly fall, after a 1.5% February decline. Single-family building weakened 0.8% (-22.9% y/y), the tenth consecutive decline, after a 1.6% February drop. Multi-family building, however, rose 0.4% (23.0% y/y), the ninth rise in the last ten months. Home improvements improved 0.3% (-2.0% y/y) following two months of sharp decline.

Private nonresidential construction improved 1.0% (21.3% y/y) in March, the tenth gain in 11 months, after a 0.4% February improvement. The latest gain reflected a 4.6% surge (62.5% y/y) in manufacturing construction and a 1.5% gain (17.9% y/y) in education construction. Lodging building rose 0.3% (38.9% y/y) and amusement construction improved 0.4% (14.9% y/y). Working lower, transportation building fell 1.1% (+33.8% y/y) and communication building fell 0.5% (+4.8% y/y) while power construction dropped 0.3% (-4.7% y/y).

The value of public construction edged 0.2% higher (15.0% y/y) in March following a 1.1% gain. Residential public construction rose 0.8% (9.7% y/y) while nonresidential public construction rose 0 2% (15.1% y/y). Commercial construction rose 0.7% (25.7% y/y) and water supply building rose 1.1% (25.5% y/y). Educational building gained 0.7% (9.1% y/y) while conservation & development surged 12.4% (25.8% y/y).  Transportation construction declined 1.6% (+4.8% y/y) and highway & street building eased 0.1% (+21.4% y/y). Water supply construction rose 1.1% (25.5% y/y) and waste disposal building increased 0.7% (24.2% y/y).

 The construction figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Residential building continues to decline.
- Nonresidential building moves up for third straight month.
- Public sector building growth slows.

U.S. Construction Spending Rebounds in March

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The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer rose to 48.6 during April from 43.8 in March, but remained below 50 (the break-even point for overall activity) for the eighth consecutive month. It has risen, however, from a low of 37.9 in November. The index peaked at 71.3 in May 2021. A reading of 43.5 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Chicago Business Barometer with methodology similar to the ISM Composite Index. This measure rose to 49.7 in April from 46.8 in March. Remaining below 50 for the eighth consecutive month, it still indicates a decline in business activity overall. The latest reading stands below a 64.4 high in October 2021.

The employment index strengthened to 51.2 from 42.7 in March. It stood at an eight-month high. An improved 15% (NSA) of firms reported higher payrolls and a greatly lessened 12% reported a decline. The production index surged to 47.9 from 41.0 and stood at a three-month high. The new orders reading of 45.7 was increased from 42.6 in March and up from a low of 31.0 in November. The supplier-delivery series rose to a still low 54.8.

The inventories index fell to 48.7 this month after surging to 58.5 in March. The order backlog index was little changed at 45.5 but still increased from a low of 35.5 in January. A lessened 27% of survey respondents reported higher backlogs while 33% reported lower.

Inflation pressures picked up in April as the prices paid index rose to a three-month high of 70.3 from 65.6 in March. The index remained, however, below the high of 94.6 in November 2021. Fifty-five percent (NSA) of respondents reported an increase in prices while nine percent reported lower prices compared to one percent during all of 2021.

The Chicago Business Barometer is considered to be a leading indicator of the U.S. economy. An indicator reading above 50 indicates expansion while below 50 suggests contraction. Summary data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database with detail including the ISM-style index in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Index surges to eight-month high.
- Employment, production & new orders lead improvement.		
- Prices paid index also increases moderately.

U.S. Chicago Business Barometer Strengthens in April

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Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) were unchanged (+6.2% y/y) during March after a 0.1% uptick in February, revised from 0.2%. A 0.1% slip had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Adjusted for a 0.1% rise in the chain price index, real PCE eased slightly (+1.9% y/y) following a 0.2% decline, revised from -0.1%.

Real spending on durable goods dropped 0.8% (+2.5% y/y) following a little-revised 1.3% February decline. Real spending on motor vehicle & parts fell 1.8% last month (+4.1% y/y) the fourth sharp decline in five months. Real spending on furniture & appliances weakened 0.7% (+1.2% y/y) after a 1.7% drop. Real spending on recreational goods & vehicles edged 0.1% higher (4.1% y/y) after a 0.4% February decline.

Real spending on nondurable goods slipped 0.1% (+0.1% y/y) after a 0.2% improvement. Apparel spending fell 1.4% (+0.7% y/y) in real terms last month after a 1.4%% February shortfall. Outlays on gasoline & other energy products rose 2.4% (0.4% y/y) last month following a 2.6% February decline. Real food & beverage outlays eased 0.1% (-2.1% y/y) following a 0.2% rise in February.

Real spending on consumer services rose 0.1% (2.4% y/y) in March after a 0.2% decline. Recreation services buying declined 0.5% (+3.3% y/y) following a 0.9% decline, while real food services and accommodations eased 0.2% (+3.2% y/y) following a 2.3% decline. Real transportation services outlays weakened 1.3% (0.3% y/y) following two months of strong increase while real housing & utilities expenditures rose 0.9% (1.4% y/y) after a 0.2% gain. Real healthcare spending gained 0.4% (4.8% y/y) for the third straight month. Financial services & insurance expenditures fell 0.2% (+1.5% y/y) and reversed February’s gain.

Personal income rose 0.3% (6.0% y/y) in March after an unrevised 0.3% February rise. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The gain reflected a 0.3% (7.0% y/y) rise in wages & salaries following a 0.3% increase in February. Proprietors' income eased 0.1% (+2.2% y/y) last month following a 0.2% decline in February. Rental income rose 1.4% (13.5% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Receipts on assets rose 0.5% (5.8% y/y) after a rise of 0.1% in February as dividend income surged 1.3% (3.9% y/y) and interest income eased 0.1% (+7.7% y/y) for the third straight month. Personal transfer receipts slipped marginally (+4.5% y/y) in March after a 0.7% February rise.

Disposable income rose 0.4% (8.3% y/y) last month following a 0.5% rise in February. Taxes fell 0.1% (-7.3% y/y), after five months of decline. Real disposable earnings rose 0.3% (4.0% y/y) last month following a 0.2% gain in February.

The personal saving rate rose to 5.1% from 4.8% in February. The level of personal savings increased 5.3% (44.0% y/y) after rising 7.5% in February.

The PCE chain price index increased 0.1% (4.2% y/y) in March following a 0.3% gain. The core index excluding food & energy prices rose 0.3% (4.6% y/y), the same as in February. Goods prices slipped 0.2% (+1.6% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick while services prices gained 0.2% (5.5% y/y), down from 0.4% in February and 0.6% in January. The PCE services price index excluding energy & healthcare increased 0.2% (6.3% y/y) after a 0.5% February increase. Energy prices fell 3.7% (-9.8% y/y) in March following a 0.5% dip while food prices fell 0.2% (+8.0% y/y) and reversed the February rise.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Spending on goods declines; services increase.
- Real disposable income improves.
- Core price inflation weakens further.

U.S. Consumer Spending Unexpectedly Holds Steady in March

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Real GDP grew 1.1% at an annual rate (1.6% y/y) during Q1'23 following a 2.6% Q4 rise. It was the weakest rise since negative growth during Q2’22. The latest figure compared to expectations for a 2.1% gain in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

A reduction of inventories subtracted 2.26 percentage points from GDP growth last quarter following a 1.47 percentage point addition in Q4. Improvement in the foreign trade deficit added 0.11 percentage point to growth after adding 0.42 percentage point in Q4. The gain occurred as exports rose 4.8% (7.1% y/y) after falling 3.7% in Q4. Imports rose 2.9% in Q1 (-2.0% y/y) following declines during the prior two quarters.

Growth in domestic final demand strengthened to 3.2% (1.4% y/y) following a 0.7% Q4 rise. Real personal consumption expenditures strengthened 3.7% (2.3% y/y) following 1.0% growth in Q4. Durable goods outlays surged 16.9% (2.7% y/y). Spending on motor vehicles & parts strengthened 45.3% (4.4% y/y), and furniture & appliance outlays rose 2.6% (1.0% y/y). Recreational goods & vehicle buying improved 6.7% (3.5% y/y). In the nondurable goods sector, spending rose 0.9% (-0.3% y/y). Outlays on food & beverages eased 0.3% (-3.4% y/y) following declines in three of the prior four quarters. Clothing outlays fell 2.0% (+2.1% y/y) while gasoline & oil expenditures rose 2.6% (-0.3% y/y). Purchases of services improved 2.3% (3.0% y/y) after a 1.6% rise. Housing & utilities outlays weakened 0.9% (+0.5% y/y) and health care outlays increased 5.7% (4.6% y/y). Spending on recreation increased 5.9% (5.8% y/y) while spending at restaurants & hotels rose 4.8% (6.9% y/y).

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Business fixed investment edged 0.7% higher (2.7% y/y) in Q1’23 after strengthening 4.0% in Q4	. Structures investment rose 11.2% (2.0% y/y) but had been falling since 2019. Equipment investment fell 7.3% (-0.8% y/y), reflecting a 1.7% decline (-6.5% y/y) in information processing equipment and a 0.9% easing (-3.3% y/y) in industrial equipment outlays. Transportation equipment investment plummeted 18.3% (+22.7% y/y) while investment in intellectual property products rose 3.8% (6.4% y/y), remaining strong since the end of the 2020 recession.

Residential investment declined for the eighth consecutive quarter, weakening 4.2% (-19.0% y/y) in Q1.

Government spending increased 4.7% (2.6% y/y) in Q1’23, the third consecutive quarter of firm growth. Federal government spending surged 7.8% (3.4% y/y) as defense spending rose 5.9% (3.6% y/y). Nondefense outlays surged 10.3% (3.2% y/y) following a similar increase in Q4. State & local government spending rose 2.9% (2.2% y/y), about as it has for three straight quarters.

The GDP chain price index increased 4.0% (5.3% y/y) last quarter, roughly the weakest increase since the end of 2020. It was down from a high of 9.0% in Q2’22. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 3.8% increase. The PCE chain price index rose 4.2% (4.9% y/y), after increasing 3.7% in Q4. The PCE price index less food & energy gained 4.9% (4.7% y/y). The nonresidential investment price index rose 7.0% (6.6% y/y). The structures price index increased 7.3% (13.0% y/y) and the equipment price index improved 7.7% (7.2% y/y). The intellectual property products price index improved 6.1% (3.2% y/y). The residential investment price index declined 1.9% (+6.5% y/y) after a peak 18.9% rise in Q1’22. The government spending price index rose 1.6% (5.0% y/y).

The GDP figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts. Both databases include tables of the newly published not seasonally adjusted data. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Inventories subtract substantially from growth.
- Consumer spending strengthens; investment slows.
- Price index remains reduced.

U.S. GDP Growth Disappoints in Q1’23

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The Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) weakened 5.2% (-23.2% y/y) to 78.9 in March following an unrevised 0.8% February increase. The index stood 38.4% below its August 2020 high of 128.0.

Sales in the Midwest tumbled 10.7% last month (-21.5% y/y) after a 0.2% February uptick. In the Northeast, sales fell 8.1% (-24.3% y/y) last month following a 6.5% February gain. In the West, sales dropped 8.0% in March (-32.2% y/y) after falling 2.4% in February. Edging higher, home sales in the South improved 0.2% (-19.8% y/y) in March after rising 0.8% in the prior month.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **SURVEYW** database.

- Sales retrace two monthly increases.
- Monthly declines are sharp in most regions.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in March

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The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $84.6 billion in March from $92.0 billion in February, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This was the first time in the past four months that the goods deficit narrowed. A $90.0 billion deficit had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit reached a peak of $125.1 billion in March 2022. In Q4 2022, a narrower trade deficit in goods and services (net exports) added 0.4 percentage point to quarterly real GDP growth. Today’s report suggests the goods deficit will make another slight addition to GDP growth.

Total exports rose 2.9% (2.7% y/y) in March after falling 3.8% in February. Changes were mixed across end-use categories. Industrial supplies & materials exports rose 6.4% (-3.5% y/y). Auto exports grew 4.3% (11.4% y/y) in March following an 11.9% decline. Nonauto consumer goods exports improved 2.0% (10.5% y/y) while capital goods exports edged 0.3% higher (6.6% y/y). Exports of foods, feeds & beverages declined 4.5% (-6.8% y/y) but “other” exports strengthened 7.6% (20.0% y/y).

Total imports declined 1.0% (-12.3% y/y) in March after falling 2.2% in February. The decline reflected a 2.9% drop (-3.7% y/y) in capital goods imports, the first decline since September 2020. Industrial supplies & materials imports declined 2.7% (-24.1% y/y) and auto imports eased 0.1% (+9.3% y/y). Imports of consumer goods ex-autos rebounded 2.4% (-20.6% y/y) while foods, feeds & beverage imports rose 0.9% (-3.9% y/y). Imports of “other goods” goods fell 3.3% (-2.5% y/y).

The advance international trade data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in **AS1REPNA**.

- Deficit is smallest in four months.
- Exports rise but imports decline.
- Quarterly deficit is shallower than Q4’22.

U.S. Advance Goods Trade Deficit Narrows in March

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In this Advance Report, Durable Goods Orders rose 3.2% (4.6% y/y) in March after weakening 1.2% in February and falling 5.0% in January. Expectations had been for a 0.7% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

A 9.1% increase (13.0% y/y) in transportation sector orders led last month’s gain, following sharp declines in the prior two months. Orders for nondefense aircraft & parts surged 78.4% last month after falling 8.4% in February. Orders for defense aircraft also were strong and increased 10.4% (28.2% y/y) and followed a 7.7% drop. Elsewhere in the transportation sector, motor vehicle & parts orders eased 0.1% (+6.3% y/y) following a 1.0% decline in February. Subtracting transportation sector orders, durable goods orders rose 0.3% (0.5% y/y) and reversed the February shortfall.

Machinery orders were little changed (+1.9% y/y) after falling 1.1% in February. Computer & electronic product orders rose 1.9% (4.0% y/y) after two consecutive 0.2% improvements. Rising by 0.8% (5.4% y/y) were electrical equipment & appliance orders, which added to a 0.3% February increase. Fabricated metals orders improved 0.1% (-2.0% y/y) after rising 0.7%. Primary metals orders also rose 0.1% (-3.3% y/y), following a 0.3% decline.

Capital goods orders rose 8.7% (8.2% y/y) after sharp declines in three of the prior four months but nondefense capital goods orders less aircraft eased 0.4% (+2.0% y/y) following a 0.7% decline. Defense capital goods orders fell 0.5% (+11.0% y/y) following a 6.8% drop.

Shipments of durable goods rose 1.1% (4.9% y/y) after weakening 0.8% in February. Shipments of nondurable goods fell 1.4% (-1.7% y/y) after a 1.1% February decline. Total manufacturing shipments eased 0.1% (+1.6% y/y) in March after declining 1.0%. Transportation equipment shipments strengthened 3.7% (13.0% y/y) last month and made up most of the prior two months’ decline. Excluding transportation, shipments of durable goods eased 0.2% (+1.2% y/y), down for the fourth month in the last five. Core capital goods shipments weakened 0.4% (+	4.3% y/y) for the second straight month.

Unfilled durable goods orders rose 0.4% last month (5.4% y/y) after holding roughly steady in February. Manufacturing inventories declined 0.8% (+2.3% y/y) in March after negligible declines during the prior two months. Durable goods inventories fell 0.9% (+2.7% y/y) while nondurable goods inventories fell 0.5% (+1.6% y/y) and have been falling since July of last year.

Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable goods, as well as nondurable goods, are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Unfilled orders and inventories are also included. The Action Economics forecast data are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Increase in total orders is first in three months.
- Orders improve modestly in most categories.
- Shipments and order backlogs rise, but inventories decline.

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Recover in March as Aircraft Orders Rebound

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The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence Index fell 2.6% (-6.7% y/y) to 101.3 after rising 0.6% to 104.0 in March, revised from 104.2. The index remained 21.4% below its most recent peak in June 2021. A reading of 104.1 for April had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Performance amongst the component series remained mixed. The Expectations Index weakened 8.0% (-13.8% y/y) to 68.1 following a 5.1% March increase to 74.0, revised from 70.4. The index was 39.1% below its March 2021 peak. The Present Situation Index improved 1.5% (-1.2% y/y) to 151.1. It stood 5.3% below its June 2021 peak.

Consumers' assessment of current business conditions held steady m/m as 18.8% of respondents characterized conditions as good in April. Labor market readings deteriorated sharply this month. The jobs gap, representing the difference between respondents indicating that jobs are plentiful versus those saying jobs are hard to get, rose slightly to 37.3% in April from a downwardly revised 36.5% in March. Calculated by Haver Analytics, this series has a 67% correlation with the unemployment rate over the last ten years. The jobs plentiful measure rose to 48.4%, reversing a small part of its March decline. The jobs hard to get measure eased to 11.1%, which was down from 13.7% in November.

Consumers assessment of future business conditions fell as a lessened 13.5% of respondents felt that conditions would get better in six months. It was close to the lowest percentage in seven years. Thirteen percent of respondents felt there would be more jobs in six months, the fewest since May 2016. A lessened 15.7% expected income to increase in six months, down from a 19.6% high this past October.

The expected inflation rate in twelve months edged down to 6.2% from 6.3% in March. Fairly stable in the last two months, it remained below the 7.9% high in June of last year. Nevertheless, it remained well above the 4.4% low in January 2020.

A lessened 59.3% of respondents felt that interest rates would be higher in twelve months while a steady 11.3% thought they would be lower. A lessened 29.3% of respondents thought that stock prices would be higher in twelve months and a lessened 34.5% thought they would be lower.

The share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months fell sharply to 5.0%, the least since September 2022 and below the October high of 7.4%. It nevertheless remained higher than its 4.5% low in July of last year. Those planning to buy a major appliance dropped sharply to 41.0% of respondents this month. It’s fallen from a high of 52.4% six months ago.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver's **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Expectations decline to nine-month.
- Present situation index improves slightly.
- Inflation expectations slip.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Weakens in April

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House prices rose 0.5% during February after increasing 0.1% in January, revised from 0.2% according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index. The February increase was the strongest in nine months. Nevertheless, the 4.0% y/y increase was well below its high of 19.2% in February 2022.

Monthly strength in house prices was evident in the in the East South Central region where they rose 2.3% (8.3% y/y) and in the West North Central region where they rose 1.1% (4.9% y/y). Prices in the West South Central region increased 1.0% (5.2% y/y).

Moderate price gains were registered in New England where prices increased 0.8% (5.4% y/y), the East North Central region where prices increased 0.6% (5.1% y/y) and in the Mountain region where prices increased 0.5% (0.3% y/y).

Smaller monthly price changes were recorded in the Middle Atlantic region where they rose 0.3% (4.5% y/y). Home prices declined 0.3% (-2.7% y/y) in the Pacific region of the country, where they fell for the fifth straight month. Home prices also fell 0.3% (+6.2% y/y) in the South Atlantic region.

The FHFA house price index is a weighted purchase-only index that measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associated quarterly index includes refinancing the same kind of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included.

The FHFA data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

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- Monthly gains extend throughout most regions of country.
- Year-to-year price increases weaken.

U.S. FHFA House Prices Strengthen in February

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