Tom Moeller

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Retail gasoline prices were unchanged at $3.66 per gallon (-11.0% y/y) last week. It remained highest price since the second week of November and well above the $3.09 low at the end of December. The price remained down from its mid-June 2022 peak of $5.01 per gallon. The retail price of diesel fuel fell	 to $4.08 per gallon (-21.0% y/y) last week from $4.12 per gallon in the previous week. It reached a recent peak of $5.81 per gallon in the third week of June 2022.

The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to $79.22 per barrel (-23.9% y/y) in the week ended April 21 from $81.87 in the prior week. Yesterday, the price was $78.76 per barrel. The average price of Brent crude oil weakened to $84.62 per barrel (-20.0% y/y) last week after strengthening to $87.36 per barrel in the previous week. The price peaked at $127.40 in mid-June of 2022.

The price of natural gas rebounded to $2.21/mmbtu (-68.9% y/y) in the week ended April 21 after declining to $2.09/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices have fallen from their recent high of $6.78/mmbtu in the third week of December and from $9.56/mmbtu in the last week of August of 2022. Yesterday, the price was $2.19/mmbtu.

In the four weeks ended April 14, gasoline demand rose 3.6% from a year earlier after rising 5.5% y/y in the prior week. Demand for all petroleum products rose 2.5% y/y in the latest four weeks after rising 0.7% y/y in the prior week. Crude oil input to refineries eased 0.4% y/y and has been falling since January.

Gasoline inventories declined 3.8% y/y in the week ended April 14 compared to a 4.7% y/y fall in the prior week, while crude oil inventories fell 14.0% y/y. Inventories of distillate fuel oil rose 3.1% y/y, but residual crude oil inventories rose 15.0% y/y.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories in the week ended April 14 edged up to 24.9 days from 24.5 days in the previous week. It remained near the lowest level since late-November, down from a high of 29.7 days in the third week of January. The supply of crude oil fell to 29.7 days but remained above its low of 25.3 days at the end of June 2022.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database.

- Retail gasoline prices hold steady.
- Crude oil prices decline following three weeks of increase.
- Natural gas prices improve, up slightly from March low.

U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed

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Manufacturing activity in Texas continued to weaken this month, according to the Manufacturing Outlook Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The general business activity index of -23.4 compared to -15.7 in March and has been negative since last May.

The latest reading was little changed from a low of -23.7 in July of last year. A lessened 7.4% of respondents reported improved business activity in April, down from 12.6% in March. An increased 30.8% of respondents reported a worsening of business conditions, the most in four months. The company outlook index of -15.6 in April compared to --13.3 in March and has been negative since March, 2022. Data were collected in the April 11-19 period from 82 Texas manufacturers.

The employment index weakened to 8.0 from 10.4, up from -1.0 in February. A lessened 20.2% of respondents reported a rise in hiring, while a lessened 12.2% reported a decline. The production index fell to 0.9 in April from 2.5 in March. A slightly increased 26.3% of respondents reported higher production while a greatly increased 25.4% reported a decline. The unfilled orders series weakened to -11.3 from -9.4 in March.

Many of the other series remained negative. The growth rate of orders index of –11.1 compared to -15.2 in March and has been negative since May of last year. The shipments series rose to -2.8 from -10.5 as an improved 25.3% of respondents reported more shipments and a slightly lessened 28.1% reported a decline. The wages & benefits series improved to 37.6 from 30.5 but was below a high of 54.9 in January, 2022. The capital expenditure series held at 2.8, down from a high of 19.3 in March of last year.

Inflation indicators were mixed this month. The index for prices received for finished goods rose to 8.4 from 7.0 but remained near the lowest reading since November 2020. It was down from a high of 51.3 high in October 2021. A fairly steady 18.3% of respondents reported raising prices while an increased 9.9% reported lowering prices. The index of prices paid for raw materials weakened to 19.5 this month, the lowest level since July 2020 significantly below 73.4 reached last March and an 84.1 high in November 2021.

Expectations for future manufacturing activity deteriorated this month. The future general business activity index of -16.6 in April was its 12th consecutive negative reading. The future production index collapsed to 3.0 from 13.5, but the future employment index improved modestly. The future shipments index weakened significantly. Falling slightly was the future capital spending measure.

Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report rising activity, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase equals the number reporting a decrease. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

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- General business activity & expectations decline.
- Employment & production ease.
- Pricing & wage pressures rise.

Texas Manufacturing Activity Index Deteriorates in April

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The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank reported that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) held steady at -0.19 during March. The three-month moving average of the index improved m/m to 0.01 from -0.09, and was higher than the low of -0.38 in December. During the last 20 years, there has been a 74% correlation between the index and the q/q change in real GDP.

The March index reflected mixed performance amongst the component series. The Production & Income component fell to -0.08 from 0.04 in February. It was the first negative figure in three months. The Personal Consumption & Housing component reading of -0.10 was the fourth negative reading in five months. The Sales, Orders and Inventories measure of -0.02 compared to -0.09 in both of the prior two months. On the plus side the Employment, Unemployment and Hours reading rose to 0.01 in March from -0.09 in February.

The diffusion index of the CFNAI, which measures the breadth of component change, rose to 0.14 from 0.10 in February.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

These figures are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- Overall index is unchanged m/m below zero.
- Component series are mostly negative.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Remains Negative

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The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) rose 1.7% (-18.7% y/y) during the four weeks ended April 21 to the highest level since mid-February. The index remained down 18.7% y/y as factory sector production fell 1.1% y/y through March. Most recently, factory output fell 0.5% last month following a 0.6% February gain.

Prices in the **crude oil & benzene** group strengthened 7.5% (-10.1% y/y) in the last four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 16.9% in four weeks to $80.13 per barrel but fell 23.7% y/y, while the price of the petro-chemical benzene improved 7.3% (-2.3% y/y). Excluding crude oil & benzene, the industrial commodity price index rose 0.9% (-18.3% y/y) over the last four weeks.

**Metals** group prices rose 2.5% (-26.3% y/y) in the last four weeks while aluminum prices increased 6.4% (-26.9% y/y). The cost of scrap copper improved 2.4% in the last four weeks (-12.9% y/y) and tin prices rose 15.8% (-38.4% y/y). Lead prices rose 2.0% (-11.4% y/y) in the last four weeks. Working lower, the cost of steel scrap weakened 5.9% (-32.5% y/y) in four weeks while zinc prices declined 2.9% (-37.2% y/y).

Prices in the **textile** group improved 1.6% during the last four weeks but fell 9.1% y/y. Cotton prices rose 6.4% but weakened 40.6% y/y. The cost of burlap improved 5.5% (-11.4% y/y) in the last four weeks.

The **miscellaneous** group price index eased 1.5% (-22.6% y/y) during the last four weeks. Framing lumber prices declined 6.0% (-57.1% y/y) but the cost of natural rubber rose 1.3% (-20.0% y/y) in four weeks.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

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- Gains are registered in most categories.
- Crude oil prices keep rising.
- Metals prices still firm along with nondurable goods costs.

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Improve

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Sales of existing homes fell 2.4% during March (-22.0% y/y) to 4.44 million units (SAAR) after strengthening 13.8% to 4.55 million during February, revised from 4.580 million. Sales remained up from the January low of 4.00 million. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected March sales of 4.49 million units.

Single-family home sales fell 2.7% (-21.1% y/y) to 3.99 million units after rising 14.2% to 4.10 million in February. Sales remained 31.8% lower than the high of 5.85 million in October 2020. Condo and co-op sales held steady (-28.6% y/y) at 450,000 after rising 9.8% in February. Sales have fallen 40% from the January 2021 high of 750,000.

Sales fell m/m across most of the country. In the Midwest, sales slid 5.5% (-17.6% y/y) to 1.03 million after a 13.5% February improvement. Sales in the West declined 3.5% (-30.5% y/y) to 820,000 last month following an 18.1% February rise. Sales in the South also declined in March by 1.0% (-20.4% y/y) to 2.07 million after rising 14.8% in the prior month. Sales in the Northeast held steady (-21.2% y/y) at 520,000 after a 4.0% February rise.

The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) rose 1.0% (+5.4% y/y) to 980,000 in March after falling 1.0% in February. The supply of homes on the market (NSA) held steady at 2.6 months at the current selling rate, but remained higher than the record low of 1.6 months reached in January of last year. These figures date back to January 1999.

The median price of an existing home (NSA) rose 3.3% (-0.9% y/y) to $375,700 following a 0.7% February increase. They were 9.2% below the June peak of $413,800. Prices rose last month in each region of the country. The median price of an existing single-family home rose 3.2% (-1.4% y/y) to $380,000 while the price of existing co-ops and condos rose 4.6% (2.1% y/y) at $337,700.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Sales return to October level.
- Decline occurs throughout most regions of country.
- Home prices improve to five-month high.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Weaken During March

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its Composite Index of Business Conditions declined to -31.3 during April after improving slightly to -23.2 in March. The index remained was at its lowest level since May 2020 and was below its peak of 45.6 in April of 2021. It has been negative for ten of the last eleven months. A reading of -19.2 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The survey responses were collected from April 10 to April 17.		

The ISM-Adjusted Composite Index, constructed by Haver Analytics, improved to 42.2 this month from 39.4 in March. It remained below the break-even level of 50 and continued to indicate contraction in overall factory sector activity. It stood well below its high of 65.4 in November 2021.

The component series remained mostly below zero this month. The new orders series rose to -22.7 from -28.2 in March. An improved 15.2% of respondents reported more orders while an increased 37.9% reported orders deterioration. The shipments index of -7.3 compared to -25.4 in March and remained below the latest high of 32.1 last May. A greatly increased 20.4% of respondents reported shipments improvement while a lessened 27.7% reported a decline. The unfilled orders series rose to -11.1 from -21.3 but has been negative since June 2022. The delivery times reading eased to -25.0, indicating the quickest product delivery speeds since March 2009. The inventories index declined sharply to -17.9 from -11.2, indicating an acceleration in the pace of inventory decumulation.

On the labor front, the employment index improved to -0.2 in April. It remained well below its April 2022 peak of 38.4. An increased 16.0% of respondents reported more hiring and a steady 16.2% reported less. The hours-worked index rose to -8.4 after plunging to -22.0 in April. It remained below its high of +35.3 in March of 2021.

The prices paid index fell sharply to 8.2 this month from 23.5 in March. It has fallen from a high of 83.6 in November 2021. A greatly lessened 18.5% of respondents reported higher prices while an easier 10.3% reported price declines. The prices received index fell sharply to -3.3 this month from +7.9 in March. It remained down from a high of 65.8 in November 2021. Seven percent of respondents reported price increases, down from 22.8% in March, while a slightly lessened 10.4% reported price declines.   

The future business conditions index of -1.5 this month compared to -8.0 in March. Movement amongst the component series was mixed. The new orders, shipments & inventory series improved while unfilled orders, delivery times, employment and hours worked deteriorated. The expected prices paid index weakened last month, but prices received improved modestly from its seven-year low.
			
These diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. The Philadelphia Fed data can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

The Fed’s latest **Beige Book** covering regional economic conditions can be found [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202304-summary.htm).

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- Index declines to lowest level since May 2020.
- Components are mostly negative.
- Prices paid index falls to three-year low.

Philadelphia Fed Factory Index Falls Sharply during April

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Mortgage loan applications fell 8.8% (-44.1% y/y) in the week ended April 14 following a 5.3% increase during the prior week. These data are from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.

Purchase loan applications fell 10.0% (-36.4% y/y) last week after rising 7.8% during the week prior. Applications to refinance an existing loan declined 5.8% (-56.0% y/y) following a minimal rise in the prior week.

The percentage of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 27.6% from 27.0%. The percentage of applications for an ARM loan increased to 6.3% from 6.0% in the prior week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose to 6.61% in the week ended April 14, up from 6.46% in the prior week. This compares to a 7.02% high at the beginning of March. The effective rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 6.06% from 5.92% in the previous week. The rate on 30-year Jumbo loans edged up to 6.43% from 6.38% in the week prior. The rate on a 5-year ARM was little changed at 5.83%.

The average loan size rose 0.4% (-1.7% y/y) to $389,200 last week. The series high of $401,900 was reached in the week ended May 6, 2022. The average size of a purchase loan rose 1.3% (-3.5% y/y) to $437,700. The average loan size to refinance an existing mortgage fell 2.0% (-10.0% y/y) to $262,400.

The Mortgage Bankers Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications reverse prior week’s increase.
- Purchase & refinancing loans decline. 
- Interest rates edge higher.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Decline Sharply

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Total housing starts slipped 0.8% (-17.2% y/y) during March to 1.420 million units (SAAR) from 1.432 million in February, revised from 1.450 million. Starts were 21.3% below the April 2022 peak of 1.805 million units. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.40 million starts in March.

The slip in total starts last month was led by a 5.9% decline (+6.5% y/y) in multi-family starts to 559,000. The decline followed a 16.2% February increase. Single-family starts rose 2.7% (-27.7% y/y) to 861,000 after rising 1.8% in February. They remained 34.2% below the December 2020 peak.

Starts in the Northeast surged 72.4% in March (-14.2% y/y) to 181,000 after falling 16.0% in February. In the South, starts increased 6.8% (0.2% y/y) to 848,000 following a 1.3% February rise. Starts in the Midwest fell 23.6% (-44.4% y/y) to 133,000, following a 34.9% February increase. Starts in the West weakened 28.1% (-38.6% y/y) to 258,000 after rising 21.3% in February.

Building permits fell 8.8% (-24.8% y/y) to 1.413 million from 1.550 in February, revised from 1.524 million. Multi-family permits fell 22.1% (-16.9% y/y) to 595,000 after a 23.8% February increase. Single-family permits gained 4.1% (-29.7% y/y) to 818,000 after an 8.9% February increase.

The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Multi-family starts decline moderately; single-family units rise.
- Starts are mixed across the country.
- Building permits decline led by multi-family.

U.S. Housing Starts Ease in March

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Retail gasoline prices increased to $3.66 per gallon (-9.9% y/y) last week from $3.60 during the prior week. It was the highest price since the second week of November and well above the $3.09 low at the end of December. Still, the price remained down from its mid-June 2022 peak of $5.01 per gallon. The retail price of diesel fuel rose to $4.12 per gallon (-19.3% y/y) last week from $4.10 per gallon in the previous week. It reached a recent peak of $5.81 per gallon in the third week of June 2022.

The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to $81.85 per barrel (-19.4% y/y) in the week ended April 14 from $80.60 in the prior week. Prices were at the highest level since the third week of November. Yesterday, the price dropped to $80.83 per barrel. The average price of Brent crude oil rose to $87.20 per barrel (-17.3% y/y) last week after strengthening to $85.99 per barrel in the previous week. The price peaked at $127.40 in mid-June of 2022. Yesterday, the price fell to $85.63.

The price of natural gas eased to $2.09/mmbtu (-68.5% y/y) in the week ended April 14 from $2.14/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices have fallen from their recent high of $6.78/mmbtu in the third week of December and from $9.56/mmbtu in the last week of August of 2022. Yesterday, the price was $2.21/mmbtu.

In the four weeks ended April 7, gasoline demand rose 5.5% from a year earlier after rising 3.9% y/y in the prior week. Demand for all petroleum products rose 0.7% y/y in the latest four weeks in contrast to the 14.4% annual growth at the end of 2021. Crude oil input to refineries fell 1.4% y/y and has been falling since January.

Gasoline inventories declined 4.7% y/y in the week ended April 7 compared to a 6.0% y/y decline in the prior week, while crude oil inventories fell a steady 14.5% y/y. Inventories of distillate fuel oil rose 0.9% y/y, but residual crude oil inventories rose 9.1% y/y.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories in the week ended April 7 fell to 24.5 days from 24.7 days in the previous week. It was the lowest level since late-November. The supply of crude oil held steady at 30.2 days, well above its low of 25.3 days at the end of June 2022.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database.

- Retail gasoline prices continue to rise.
- Crude oil prices improve.
- Natural gas prices slip.

U.S. Petroleum Prices Strengthen

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The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo rose 2.3% this month (-41.6% y/y) to 45 from 44 in March. The reading is up from its December low of 31 and the highest level since last September. A reading of 44 had been expected in the INFORMA Global Markets survey. The seasonally-adjusted index reached a record of 90 in November 2020.

Performance amongst the composite index's three components was positive this month. The index of present sales conditions improved to 51 (-40.7% y/y) from 49 and was at the highest level since September. The index of expected sales over the next six months increased to 50 (-31.5% y/y) from 47 and was higher than a low of 31 last November. The index measuring traffic of prospective buyers held m/m at 31 (-49.2% y/y) but was improved from the low of 20 in both November & December 2022.

The regional indexes were mixed this month. The index for the Midwest increased 8.3% (-37.1% y/y), up for the third month in the last four. The index for the West improved 13.9% (-51.2% y/y) and was at the highest level since August. The index for the South held steady (-39.0% y/y) but increased 51.5% during the last five months. The index for the Northeast also held steady for the second straight month (-37.8% y/y) but increased 43.8% in the last four months. These regional series begin in December 2004.

The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions which ask builders to rate sales and sales expectations as "good," "fair" or "poor" and traffic as "very high," "average" or "very low." The figures are diffusion indexes with values over 50 indicating a predominance of "good"/"very high" readings. In constructing the composite index, the weights assigned to the individual index components are: 0.5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, 0.1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months, and 0.2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. These data are included in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

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- Activity is measurably above its December low.
- Buyer traffic held steady but improves from yearend.
- Regional performance is mixed.

U.S. Home Builders Index Edges Higher in April

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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that its index of factory sector activity jumped to 10.8 from -24.6 in March and from -5.8 in February. A reading of -16.5 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Thirty-five percent of respondents reported improved business conditions over the month while 24% reported deterioration. The most recent survey was taken between April 3 and April 10. The headline index reflects the answer to only one question concerning general business conditions and is not calculated from components. 

Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-adjusted series, which is comparable to the ISM manufacturing index. This calculated index jumped to 54.9 from 44.5, above the critical level of 50, which is the break-even point between rising and falling activity. It had been below 50 for three straight months. 

Individual components were mixed in April, strength was led by the new orders reading which surged to 25.1 from -21.7. Shipments jumped to 23.9 from -13.4 and inventories increased to 8.2 from -1.9. Unfilled orders improved to zero from -6.7 and the delivery time index rose also to zero from -7.6, suggesting longer delivery times. The employment index rose to -8.0 from -10.1, but it was the third consecutive reading suggesting lower employment levels. The average workweek index of -6.4 was the fifth consecutive negative figure, thus again indicating fewer hours worked.

Pricing power weakened this month. The prices paid index fell to 33.0 from 41.9. It reached a high of 86.4 twelve months ago. A greatly lessened 36.1% of respondents reported paying higher prices for inputs while only 3.1% reported paying less. The prices received index improved slightly to 23.7 from 22.9 in March. Twenty-nine percent of respondents reported receiving higher prices while 5.2% reported receiving lower prices.

The index of expected general business conditions in six months rose to 6.6 from 2.9, continuing to suggest that firms do not expect much improvement over the next six months. New orders, shipments and employment are expected to increase modestly, but the employment measure rose sharply. The indexes of expected prices paid and prices received both rose slightly but remained sharply below earlier highs. Capital expenditures are still expected to rise but at a slow pace.

The N.Y. Fed survey data are contained in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations series is in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Index jumps to highest level in nine months.
- New orders and shipments surge.
- Prices paid weaken.
- Expectations improve modestly.

Empire State Manufacturing Activity Rebounds During April

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Consumers continued to spend cautiously during March. Retail sales fell 1.0% (+2.9% y/y) following a 0.2% February dip, revised from -0.4%. These declines followed a 3.1% January surge, revised from 3.2% reported last month. The March decline exceeded a 0.3% weakening expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Despite declines during the last two months, strength in January lifted total Q1 retail sales by 1.7% following a 0.2% Q4 gain. Sales excluding motor vehicles declined 0.8% (+3.6% y/y) after holding steady in February, revised from -0.1%. Sales rose a little-revised 2.3% in January. Expectations for March had been for a 0.1% dip.

Last month’s sales decline reflected a 1.6% drop (+0.1% y/y) in motor vehicle purchases after weakening 1.3% in February. Sales surged 6.8% in January. The latest decline compared to a 1.1% drop in unit vehicle sales which followed a 6.6% February decline. Gasoline station sales fell 5.5% (-14.2% y/y) as prices slid. It was the fifth consecutive monthly decline.

Sales amongst other stores were mixed. Spending in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline & restaurants, fell 0.3% (+5.5% y/y) after strengthening 0.5% in February and 2.4% in January. Sales here declined in both December & November.

Sales of nonstore retailers rose 1.9% (12.3% y/y) last month following strong increases in each of the prior two months. Sporting goods, hobby & book store sales improved 0.2% (3.0% y/y) after a 0.7% February decline. To the downside, furniture & home furnishing store sales weakened 1.2% (-2.4% y/y) after they fell 2.7% in February. Electronics and appliance store sales declined 2.1% (-10.3% y/y) following a 1.5% weakening. General merchandise store sales fell 3.0% (+2.4% y/y) after rising in each of the prior three months. Within that category, department store sales declined 2.5% (-1.2% y/y) after a 3.7% February decline. Also falling were apparel sales which were off 1.7% (-1.8% y/y) following a 2.0% February decline. Building materials & garden equipment store sales fell 2.1% (-3.5% y/y) after little change in February.

In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales rose 0.3% (7.1% y/y) after a 1.1% February strengthening. Food & beverage store sales eased 0.1% last month (+5.0% y/y) after rising 0.8% in February.

Consumer spending at restaurants & drinking places improved negligibly last month (13.0% y/y) after falling 1.6% in February.

Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Lower motor vehicle sales & gasoline prices continue to weigh on spending.
- Online sales strengthen again.
- Sales elsewhere are broadly lower.

 U.S. Retail Sales Decline Broadly in March

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