Tom Moeller

230228J5.jpg

230228K5.jpg

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that home prices eased 0.1% during December, the same as in November. Prices fell in four of the last six months and were stable in one. Prices increased 6.6% y/y versus a peak of 19.2% y/y reached in February of 2022. 
	
Seasonally adjusted monthly house price changes were mixed amongst Census regions with the largest decline occurring in the Middle Atlantic area, off 0.8% (+6.8% y/y). Following closely behind was a 0.7% decline (+7.4% y/y) in the West South Central region and a 0.3% drop (+3.4%) in the Mountain region. Prices also fell 0.3% (+5.4%) in New England and dipped 0.	2% (+6.3% y/y) in West North Central region. Home prices in the Pacific region eased slightly (+0.6% y/y).

Increasing in December were home prices in the East South Central Region by 0.9% (9.5% y/y) and the East North Central region where they rose 0.2% (6.7% y/y). Home prices also improved 0.1% (10.6% y/y) in the South Atlantic region of the country. Year-to-year price increases in each of the regions of the country were well below the gains reached in 2021 or 2022.

The FHFA house price index is a weighted purchase-only index that measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associated quarterly index includes refinancing the same kind of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included.

The **FHFA** data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

230228L5.jpg

230228M5.jpg

- FHFA Home Price Index slips for second straight month.
- House prices are down in six of the nine census regions.

U.S. FHFA House Prices Edge Lower in December

230227A4.jpg

230227B4.jpg

<i>The National Association for Business Economics forecast for real GDP growth in 2024 of 1.9% (Q4/Q4) compares to 0.3% estimated earlier. For 2023, expected growth of 0.3% was unchanged. These gains follow a 0.9% rise in 2022.</i> Quarterly, GDP is expected to hold steady in Q1’23 then rise 0.1% in Q2'23, increase 0.2% in Q3 and 1.1% in Q4.

Personal consumption expenditures are forecast to grow 1.3% this year and 1.3% in 2024, after a 2.8% gain in 2022. Business fixed investment is expected to rise 0.9% this year and 1.4% in 2024, following a 3.8% rise in 2022. An expected decline in residential investment this year of 14.2% should be followed by a 1.9% rise in 2024; all coming after a 10.7% decline in 2022. After falling 0.6% in 2022, government spending should rise 1.8% in 2023 then increase 1.0% in 2024.

The net export deficit is expected to shrink to $1.231 trillion in 2023 from the record $1.357 trillion in 2022, then marginally narrow to $1.217 trillion in 2024. Exports should rise 3.0% this year, then gain 3.6% in 2024. Imports are expected to decline 1.0% this year then rise 2.9% in 2024. Inventories are expected to rise $37 billion in 2023 after a $125 billion 2022 gain, then rise $40 billion in 2024.

Housing starts are forecasted to decline to 1.31 million in 2023 from 1.55 million in 2022, then rise to 1.35 million units in 2024. Light vehicle sales are projected to rise to 14.8 million this year from 13.8 million in 2022, then improve to 15.5 million in 2024. Sales will remain below the 2016 peak of 17.5 million. An average monthly gain in payroll employment of 61,000 in 2023 compares to 401,000 in 2022; it should then rise to 102,000 in 2024. Expectations for the unemployment rate place it at 3.9% this year compared to 3.6% in 2022; then it is expected to rise further to 4.4% in 2024.

230227C4.jpg

230227D4.jpg

Inflation pressures should ease. After rising 7.1% (Q4/Q4) in 2022, the gain in the Consumer Price Index should moderate to 3.0% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024. Price inflation, as measured by the PCE price index, is expected to slow to 2.8% in 2023 and 2.2% in 2024, after surging to 5.7% in 2022. The chain PCE price index excluding food & energy is projected to slow to 3.0% in 2023 and 2.2% in 2024, after rising 4.8% in 2022. The cost of crude oil is expected to be $79 at the end of this year and stay at $79 per barrel by the end of 2024.

Interest rates are expected to decline. The forecasted 3.55% rate on a ten-year Treasury note at the end of this year compares to 3.88% at the end of 2022. The rate should decline further to 3.42% by the end of 2024. The Federal funds rate is projected to rise, however, to 4.88% by the end of 2023 from 4.375% at the end of 2022. The funds rate is forecasted to decline to 3.50% at the end of 2024.

After-	tax corporate profits are predicted to decline 1.6% this year after rising 7.8% in 2022, then improve 2.5% next year. The expected Federal government budget deficit should fall to $1.185 trillion this year from $1.375 trillion in 2022, then total $1.250 trillion in 2024. The deficit hit a peak of $3.132 trillion in 2020.

The figures from the latest NABE report can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

230227F4.jpg

230227G4.jpg

-	Growth in consumer spending should be slow & steady.
-	Housing starts are predicted to decline this year then rise next year.
-	Vehicle sales should improve this year and next.
-	Price inflation is expected to slow.

NABE Forecast Lifts U.S. Economic Growth in 2024 after Minimal Gain in 2023

230227A2.jpg

230227B2.jpg

The Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) surged 8.1% (-24.1% y/y) to 82.5 in January after increasing 1.1% in December, revised from 2.5%. The index stood at the highest level since August. The pending home sales index remained 35.5% below its August 2020 high of 128.0.

Sales in the West increased 10.1% (-29.3% y/y) in January following a 5.8% December gain. Sales in the South improved 8.3% (-24.7% y/y) after rising 2.9% in December. In the Midwest, home sales increased 7.9% (-21.1% y/y) in January after easing 0.9% in the prior month. Following seven straight months of decline, sales in the Northeast improved 6.0% (-19.8% y/y) after a 5.8% December drop.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **SURVEYW** database.

-	Sales rise to five-month high.
-	Monthly strength logged in all regions.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Surge in January

230224A2.jpg

230224B2.jpg

New single-family home sales during January increased to 670,000 (-19.4% y/y) after rising to 625,000 in December, revised from 616,000. November sales were revised to 583,000 from 602,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 619,000 new homes for last month.

January’s gain in new home sales reflected varied movement amongst the regions of the country. In the South, sales rose 17.1% (-2.2% y/y) to 451,000 after rising 5.5% in December. This increase was offset by a 19.4% decline (-13.8% y/y) in sales in the Northeast to 25,000 following a 6.1% December weakening. New home sales in the West fell 7.3% (-46.9% y/y) to 127,000 after rising 0.7% in December. Also declining last month, new home sales in the Midwest fell 6.9% (-34.3% y/y) to 67,000 following a 46.9% December surge.

The median price of a new home fell 8.2% last month (-0.7% y/y) to $427,500 after rising 1.6% in December. The price has fallen 13.9% since its October peak of $496,800. The average sales price of a new home weakened 12.8% (-5.3% y/y) to $474,400 following a 3.9% December rise. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market fell 2.9% (+11.4% y/y) to a seasonally adjusted 439,000 units, up from a low of 142,000 in July 2012. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale fell to 7.9 months from a high of 10.1 months in September, but remained up from a low of 3.3 months in August 2020. The median number of months a new home stayed on the market rose to 2.4 from the record low of 1.5 months in both September & October. These figures were down from a high of 5.1 months in March 2021. These data date back to January 1975.

New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

230224C2.jpg

230224D2.jpg

- Home sales rise for second straight month.
- Sales changes are mixed regionally.	
- Median sales price falls sharply.

U.S. New Home Sales Increase in January

230224K1.jpg

230224J1.jpg

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 1.8% (7.9% y/y) during January after easing 0.1% in December, revised from -0.2%. Spending fell 0.2% in November. A 1.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

In January, real PCE increased 1.1% (2.4% y/y) after falling 0.3% in both of the prior two months.  Real spending on durable goods increased 5.2% (0.5% y/y) last month after a 1.7% decline. Spending on motor vehicle & parts surged 11.9% (-1.7% y/y) after falling 3.3% in December. Real spending on furniture & appliances gained 2.0% (0.6% y/y) last month after falling 1.1% December. Real spending on recreational goods & vehicles improved 2.1% (2.8% y/y) following a 0.2% easing.

Real spending on nondurable goods rose 0.5% (-1.4% y/y) in January after declining in each of the prior three months. Real apparel spending increased 3.0% (3.5% y/y) last month after weakening 1.6%. Outlays on gasoline & other energy products declined 2.2% (-0.9% y/y) following a 0.3% fall and real food & beverage outlays eased 0.1% (-5.7% y/y) after falling 0.5% in December.

Real spending on consumer services improved 0.6% last month (4.1% y/y) after holding steady in December. Recreation services buying strengthened 1.4% (7.9% y/y) in January, double the prior month’s gain while real restaurant and hotel spending surged 4.6% (14.0% y/y), after falling 0.7% in December. Real transportation services outlays rose 0.9% (4.1% y/y) after rising 0.4% in December, while real housing & utilities expenditures fell 0.6% (-0.2% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. Real healthcare spending gained 0.4% last month (4.0% y/y) after rising 0.6%. Financial services & insurance expenditures improved 0.3% (2.9% yy) in January after easing 0.1% in December.

Personal income rose 0.6% (6.4% y/y) during January, half the expected 1.2% rise, after increasing 0.3% in December, revised from 0.2%. The gain reflected a 0.9% increase (7.9% y/y) in wages & salaries after two consecutive 0.4% gains. Proprietors' income rose 0.4% (6.6% y/y), the same as in December. Rental income strengthened 1.5% (12.1% y/y) in January following a 1.0% December rise. Receipts on assets rose 0.5% (5.3% y/y) as interest income edged 0.1% higher (8.3% y/y), but dividend income increased 0.9% (2.1% y/y). Personal transfer receipts eased slightly (+3.5% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick.

Disposable income rose 2.0% (8.4% y/y) in January following a 0.4% December rise. Taxes fell 7.9% (-5.1% y/y). Real disposable earnings rose 1.4% (2.8% y/y) after a 0.2% December rise.

The personal saving rate rose to 4.7% in January, the highest level in twelve months. The level of personal savings increased 7.1% last month and increased 8.7% y/y.

The PCE chain price index increased 0.6% (5.4% y/y) following a 0.2% December rise, revised from 0.1%. The index excluding food & energy also rose 0.6% (4.7% y/y), the largest increase since August as it followed a 0.4% December rise. Goods prices rose 0.6% (4.7% y/y) while services prices also gained 0.6% (5.7% y/y). The core services price index excluding energy & housing increased 0.6% (4.6% y/y), the same as in December. Energy prices rose 2.0% (9.6% y/y) after falling 3.6% in December while food prices rose 0.4% (11.1% y/y), the same as in December.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

230224L1.jpg

230224M1.jpg

- Real spending gain led by goods. 
- Personal income increase disappoints.
- Price index growth accelerates.

U.S. Personal Spending Strengthens in January

230223N2.jpg

230223O2.jpg

Real GDP grew 2.7% at an annual rate (0.9% y/y) during Q4'22, revised from the advance report of 2.9% growth. It followed 3.2% growth in Q3. The latest figure compares to expectations for a 3.0% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Faster inventory accumulation added an unrevised 1.5 percentage point to growth last quarter following a 1.2 percentage point subtraction in Q3. Improvement in the foreign trade deficit added 0.5 percentage point to growth, revised from 0.6, last quarter after a 2.9 percentage point addition in Q3. The gain occurred as exports fell 1.6% (+5.2% y/y), revised from 1.3%, after rising 14.6% in Q3. Imports weakened 4.2% (+1.8% y/y), revised from -4.6%, following a 7.3% decline.

Growth in domestic final demand slowed to a minimally revised 0.7% (+0.9% y/y) following a 1.5% Q3 rise. Real personal consumption expenditure growth of 1.4% last quarter (+1.8% y/y) was revised from 2.1% and followed 2.3% growth in Q3. Durable goods outlays fell 1.9% (+0.5% y/y), revised from 0.5% growth. Spending on motor vehicles & parts gained a downwardly revised 3.8% (-1.5% y/y), and furniture & appliance outlays declined 0.8% (-0.5% y/y), revised from a 0.4% gain. The decline in spending on recreational goods & vehicles was deepened to a 3.9% (+4.2% y/y). In the nondurable goods sector, spending rose 0.2% (-1.7% y/y), revised from 1.5%. Outlays on food & beverages eased 0.3% (-5.2% y/y), revised from a 1.1% gain, following three straight quarters of decline. Clothing outlays slipped 0.1% (+1.2% y/y), revised from a 0.8% gain while gasoline & oil expenditures rose a downwardly revised 1.1% (-3.6% y/y), also following three straight quarters of decline. Purchases of services strengthened a little-changed 2.4% (3.2% y/y) after stronger growth in the prior two quarters. Housing & utilities outlays gained 1.8% (1.4% y/y) and health care outlays increased a strengthened 5.9% (2.8% y/y), about the same as in Q3. Spending on recreation increased a steady 3.4% (4.5% y/y) while spending at restaurants & hotels rose 1.9% (5.6% y/y), the weakest rise in three quarters.

230223P2.jpg

230223Q2.jpg

Business fixed investment rose 3.3% (4.3% y/y) in Q4’22, revised from 0.7% after strengthening 6.2% in Q3. Structures investment strengthened 8.5% (-3.3% y/y), revised from 0.4%, but had been falling since the end of 2019.  Equipment investment fell 3.2% (+4.0% y/y), revised from -3.8%, reflecting an unchanged 23.3% decline (-2.1% y/y) in information processing equipment and a downwardly revised 30.4% rise (27.9% y/y) in transportation equipment. Investment in industrial equipment rose an upwardly revised 6.2% (-0.1% y/y) while investment in intellectual property products rose an upwardly revised 7.4% (8.5% y/y), remaining strong since the end of the 2020 recession.

Residential investment declined for the seventh consecutive quarter, tumbling a little-revised 25.9% (-19.0% y/y) in Q4, about the same as in Q3.

Government spending increased a little-changed 3.6% (0.8% y/y) in Q4’22, about the same as in Q3. Federal government spending surged a little-changed 5.9% (0.1% y/y) as defense spending rose 2.2% (-0.2% y/y). Nondefense outlays jumped 10.9% (0.5% y/y) following a 2.5% increase. State & local government spending rose an unrevised 2.3% (1.3% y/y) after increasing 3.7% in Q3.

The GDP chain price index increased 3.9% (6.4% y/y), revised from 3.5%, last quarter, remaining the weakest increase in two years. It was down from a 9.0% rise in Q2. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 3.5% increase. The PCE price Index rose 3.7% (5.7% y/y), revised from 3.2%, after increasing 4.3% in Q3. The PCE price index less food & energy gained 4.3% (4.8% y/y), revised from 3.9%, down from 5.6% in Q1. The nonresidential investment price index rose a minimally changed 3.4% (6.6% y/y). The equipment price index improved 6.0% (7.2% y/y). The intellectual property products price index slipped 0.6% (+2.2% y/y) after firm increases in the prior six quarters. The residential investment price index rose 6.7% (12.1% y/y), the weakest increase in two years. The government spending price index rose 3.5% (6.8% y/y), also the weakest increase in two years.

The GDP figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts. Both databases include tables of the newly published not seasonally adjusted data. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.


230223R2.jpg

230223S2.jpg

- Consumer spending growth reduced but capital investment raised.
- Inventories & trade deficit improvement add to growth. 
- Q4 price gain revised higher but trend remains lower.

U.S. GDP Growth Revised Slightly Lower in Q4’22

230223J2.jpg

230223K2.jpg

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that their manufacturing sector business activity index of zero in February compared to modestly negative readings between -1 and -4 in the prior four months. The Kansas City measure is a diffusion index with positive readings indicating more respondents reporting increases than decreases in business activity. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes.

The ISM-Adjusted Index (NSA) of 49.6 compared to 49.7 in January but was increased from 44.5 in December. These readings were down from a high of 68.9 in March 2022.

A modest improvement in the current conditions measure reflected uneven changes amongst the component series. The new orders measure rose to its least negative reading since September while the supplier delivery time measure also improved. Deteriorating sharply m/m was the shipments measure along with materials inventories, production and orders backlogs.

The employment index rose sharply to 11, the highest level since August. An improved 29% of survey respondents reported more hiring while a lessened 16% reported a decline. Moving in the opposite direction, however, was the employee workweek reading which fell to the lowest level in nearly three years.

On the inflation front, the prices received index for finished products rose slightly to 17 but remained well below the high of 60 in August 2021. Twenty-six percent of respondents reported higher prices while a lessened 10% reported a decline.  The raw materials price measure rose to its highest level since October.

The future composite index (expectations in six months) fell sharply to 1, its lowest level since 	May 2020. Expected orders, shipments, employment and delivery times each declined, but expected production and inventories improved. Expectations for finished goods prices received also improved to the highest level in three months. The expected raw materials price measure similarly rose.

The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. The September survey was conducted during the third week of the month and included 95 responses from plants in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, northern New Mexico and western Missouri. Data for the Kansas City Fed Survey can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

230223L2.jpg

230223M2.jpg

- Expectations continue to deteriorate.
- Pricing power remains weak.

Kansas City Fed Factory Index Is Unchanged in February

230222A4 b.jpg

Mortgage applications declined 13.3% (-57.2% y/y) in the week ended February 17 following a 7.7% fall during the prior week. The decline brought them to the lowest level since the first week of January, down 21.7% during the last four weeks. These data are from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.

Applications for home purchase loans plunged 18.1% (-41.3% y/y) in the latest week following a 5.5% decline in the week prior. Applications to refinance an existing loan fell 2.2% (-72.0% y/y) following a 12.5% decline in the prior week.

The percentage of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 32.5% in the week ended February 17, up from 26.1% at the end of November. The percentage of ARM loans rose to 7.6% but remained down from a recent high of 12.8% in the second week of October.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose w/w to 6.84% from 6.36% two weeks earlier. It remained below a high of 7.42% in the third week of October. The effective rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 6.22% last week from 6.06% in the prior week and 5.80% one week earlier. The rate on 30-year Jumbo loans increased to 6.59% from 6.38%. The rate on a 5-year ARM rose to 6.02% from 5.80% in the prior week. It was the highest rate since the third week of November.

The average loan size fell 1.1% (+1.6% y/y) to $378,400 in the week ended February 17 from $382,500 in the prior week. The series high of $401,900 was reached in the week ended May 6. The average size of a purchase loan fell to $431,900 (-4.1% y/y) from $433,300 in the week prior. The average loan size to refinance a mortgage declined to $267,200 (-9.3% y/y) from $274,300. It was the lowest level in five weeks.

The Mortgage Bankers Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

-	Purchase applications fall sharply; refinancing applications ease.
-	Mortgage interest rate on 30-year loan jumps.


U.S. Mortgage Applications Decline as Interest Rates Rise

230222C.jpg

230222D.jpg

Retail gasoline prices eased in the week ended February 20 to $3.38 per gallon (-4.3% y/y) from $3.39 per gallon in the previous week. Prices remained below the mid-June 2022 peak of $5.01 per gallon but above their late December 2022 low of $3.09. The retail price of diesel fuel fell to $4.38 per gallon (+7.9% y/y) last week from $4.44 per gallon in the previous week. The price reached a peak of $5.81 per gallon in the third week of June 2022 but the latest cost was the lowest since February of last year.

The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to $78.53 per barrel (-15.4% y/y) in the week ended February 17 after climbing to $77.51 in the week prior. Prices have been near that level since early-December. Its recent high was $120.46 in the second week of June 2022. Yesterday, the price was $76.16 per barrel. The average price of Brent crude oil rose to $84.82 per barrel last week from $82.96 per barrel in the previous week. The price peaked at $124.05 in mid-June of 2022. Yesterday, the price was $82	.96 per barrel.

The price of natural gas moved up to $2.41/mmbtu (-45.1% y/y) in the week ended February 17 after falling to $2.34 in the prior week. Warm winter temperatures had caused prices to fall in the prior eight weeks from $6.78 in the third week of December. The current price is near the lowest level since October 2020. The most recent peak was $9.56/mmbtu in the last week of August. Yesterday, the price was $2.42/mmbtu.
	
In the four weeks ended February 10, gasoline demand declined 3.2% from a year earlier and has been falling since mid-2021. Demand for all petroleum products fell 10.2% y/y in the latest four weeks and also has been falling since 2021. Crude oil input to refineries fell 1.4% y/y, after it trended sideways through much of 2022. 

Gasoline inventories declined 2.1% y/y in the week ended February 10 but have risen sharply since early-November. Crude oil inventories slumped 15.4% y/y but have jumped since late-December.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories in the week ended February 10 edged up w/w to 29.0 days from 28.9 days in the previous week. The low had been 23.3 days in early-November. The supply of crude oil rose to 31.2 days and has been rising since a low of 25.2 days in the first week of December.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** and **DAILY** databases. Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data are in **USENERGY**.

-	Gasoline prices edge lower.
-	Crude oil prices improve.
-	Natural gas prices move up.

U.S. Energy Prices Remain Mixed

230221J5.jpg

230221K5.jpg

Sales of existing homes eased 0.7% during January (-36.9% y/y) to 4.00 million (SAAR) from 4.03 million in December, revised from 4.02 million. Sales stood at the at the lowest level since October 2010. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected January sales of 4.020 million units.

Single-family home sales fell 0.8% (-36.1% y/y) in January to 3.59 million units. Sales have fallen in each month since January 2022. Condo and co-op sales held steady at 410,000 (-43.1% y/y), following a 6.8% December drop.

Sales were mixed m/m across the country. In the Midwest, sales declined 5.0% (-33.3%y/y) to 960,000 after a 1.9% December decline. Sales in the Northeast fell 3.8% (-35.9% y/y) to 500,000 following a 3.7% December drop. Working 2.9% higher (-42.4% y/y) were sales in the West to 720,000, following m/m stability in December. Also rising were sales in the South. The 1.1% January increase to 1.82 million (-36.6% y/y) came after a 2.7% December drop.

The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) rose 2.1% (15.3% y/y) in January, the first increase after five straight months of decline. The months' supply of homes on the market (NSA) held at 2.9 months at the current selling rate, up from a record low of 1.6 months reached in January of last year. These figures date back to January 1999.

The median price of an existing home (NSA) fell 2.0% (+1.3% y/y) to $359,000 following six straight months of decline. They were 13.2% below the June peak of $413,800. Prices declined last month in all four regions of the country.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

230221L5.jpg

230221M5.jpg

- Sales fall for twelfth straight month.	
- Changes were mixed across regions.
- Prices slide to twelve-month low.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Dip to Lowest Since 2010

230217R4.jpg

230217S4.jpg

The Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicators Index fell 0.3% (-5.9% y/y) during January following a 0.8% December drop, revised from -1.0%. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.4% decline in the index for January.

Four of the Leading Index's ten components made negative contributions to the index change in January. Declining influences came from the ISM new orders diffusion index, the interest rate yield curve, consumer expectations for business/economic conditions and the leading credit index. Positive contributions came from the average workweek, initial claims for jobless insurance, factory orders for consumer goods, orders for nondefense capital goods and stock prices. Building permits were unchanged.

The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators edged up 0.2% last month (1.3% y/y) after a holding steady in December, revised from a 0.1% rise. Each of the four index components rose minimally, including payroll employment, real personal income less transfers, real business sales and industrial production. The diffusion index of the percent of components rising over the last six months has been zero since November.

The Index of Lagging Economic Indicators increased 0.2% in January (6.9% y/y) following a 0.6% December rise, revised from 0.3%. A rise in the banks’ prime rate, the consumer credit-to-personal income ratio and the 6-month change in the services CPI contributed positively to the index change. The average duration of unemployment, unit labor cost growth and C&I loans outstanding contributed negatively. The six-month change in the lagging index stood at 5.6%, down from its May high of 9.4%.

The ratio of the Coincident index to the Lagging index also is seen as a leading indicator as it measures current economic performance versus excesses. The ratio held steady last month but has been steadily declining since December of 2021, suggesting rising recession risks.

The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's **BCI** database; the components are available there, and most are also in **USECON**. The expectations are in the **AS1REPNA** database. Visit the Conference Board's [site](https://www.conference-board.org/) for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.

**Disinflation: Progress and Prospects** from James Bullard, President & CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available [here](https://www.stlouisfed.org/-/media/project/frbstl/stlouisfed/files/pdfs/bullard/remarks/2023/bullard-greater-jackson-chamber-16-feb-2023.pdf?sc_lang=en&hash=3AB128AC00BADE0564654D6EF816A351).

230217T4.jpg

230217U4.jpg

- Index declines for tenth straight month.
- Coincident indicators rise slightly.
- Lagging indicators continue to increase.

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Ease in January

230217F3.jpg

230217G3.jpg

Online retail sales edged a seasonally adjusted 0.1% lower (+6.5% y/y) in Q4’22 following increases of 1.6% and 3.1% in the prior two quarters, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. E-Commerce sales accounted for 14.7% of total retail sales in Q4'22 and has been steady at that level since 2020.

The following details of the E-Commerce data by sector are not seasonally adjusted.

Sales of nonstore retailers, which accounted for 59.2% of total E-Commerce, rose 19.1% last quarter (12.4% y/y) following a 1.8% rise in Q3. Clothing accessory store sales surged 41.3% (5.1% y/y) after easing 0.4% in Q3. Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument & book sales strengthened 34.3% (5.6% y/y) after rising 4.6% inQ3. General merchandise store sales jumped 26.3% last quarter (-0.3% y/y) after falling 2.3% in Q3. Sales of furniture & home furnishings improved 10.7% in Q4 (1.1% y/y) after rising 3.0% in Q3. Food & beverage purchases rose 14.4% (5.8% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick.

Building materials & garden equipment sales rose 3.2% in Q4 (7.1% y/y) after falling 11.4%. Miscellaneous sales including gasoline stations rose 3.9% (8.2% y/y) after falling 5.1% in Q3. Motor vehicle & parts sales weakened 4.0% (-2.5% y/y) following a 5.1% decline.

E-commerce sales are goods and services ordered over an internet, mobile device (M-commerce), extranet, Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) network, electronic mail, or other comparable online system. Payment may or may not be made online and sometimes sale & price are negotiated. Total sales estimates are adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes. They are also adjusted for trading-day differences and moving holidays.

E-Commerce sales data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database.

-	Decline follows four straight quarters of increase.
-	Changes in sales are uneven across categories.

U.S. E-Commerce Sales Slip in Q4'22

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.
