Tom Moeller

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Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 1.8% (7.9% y/y) during January after easing 0.1% in December, revised from -0.2%. Spending fell 0.2% in November. A 1.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

In January, real PCE increased 1.1% (2.4% y/y) after falling 0.3% in both of the prior two months.  Real spending on durable goods increased 5.2% (0.5% y/y) last month after a 1.7% decline. Spending on motor vehicle & parts surged 11.9% (-1.7% y/y) after falling 3.3% in December. Real spending on furniture & appliances gained 2.0% (0.6% y/y) last month after falling 1.1% December. Real spending on recreational goods & vehicles improved 2.1% (2.8% y/y) following a 0.2% easing.

Real spending on nondurable goods rose 0.5% (-1.4% y/y) in January after declining in each of the prior three months. Real apparel spending increased 3.0% (3.5% y/y) last month after weakening 1.6%. Outlays on gasoline & other energy products declined 2.2% (-0.9% y/y) following a 0.3% fall and real food & beverage outlays eased 0.1% (-5.7% y/y) after falling 0.5% in December.

Real spending on consumer services improved 0.6% last month (4.1% y/y) after holding steady in December. Recreation services buying strengthened 1.4% (7.9% y/y) in January, double the prior month’s gain while real restaurant and hotel spending surged 4.6% (14.0% y/y), after falling 0.7% in December. Real transportation services outlays rose 0.9% (4.1% y/y) after rising 0.4% in December, while real housing & utilities expenditures fell 0.6% (-0.2% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. Real healthcare spending gained 0.4% last month (4.0% y/y) after rising 0.6%. Financial services & insurance expenditures improved 0.3% (2.9% yy) in January after easing 0.1% in December.

Personal income rose 0.6% (6.4% y/y) during January, half the expected 1.2% rise, after increasing 0.3% in December, revised from 0.2%. The gain reflected a 0.9% increase (7.9% y/y) in wages & salaries after two consecutive 0.4% gains. Proprietors' income rose 0.4% (6.6% y/y), the same as in December. Rental income strengthened 1.5% (12.1% y/y) in January following a 1.0% December rise. Receipts on assets rose 0.5% (5.3% y/y) as interest income edged 0.1% higher (8.3% y/y), but dividend income increased 0.9% (2.1% y/y). Personal transfer receipts eased slightly (+3.5% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick.

Disposable income rose 2.0% (8.4% y/y) in January following a 0.4% December rise. Taxes fell 7.9% (-5.1% y/y). Real disposable earnings rose 1.4% (2.8% y/y) after a 0.2% December rise.

The personal saving rate rose to 4.7% in January, the highest level in twelve months. The level of personal savings increased 7.1% last month and increased 8.7% y/y.

The PCE chain price index increased 0.6% (5.4% y/y) following a 0.2% December rise, revised from 0.1%. The index excluding food & energy also rose 0.6% (4.7% y/y), the largest increase since August as it followed a 0.4% December rise. Goods prices rose 0.6% (4.7% y/y) while services prices also gained 0.6% (5.7% y/y). The core services price index excluding energy & housing increased 0.6% (4.6% y/y), the same as in December. Energy prices rose 2.0% (9.6% y/y) after falling 3.6% in December while food prices rose 0.4% (11.1% y/y), the same as in December.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Real spending gain led by goods. 
- Personal income increase disappoints.
- Price index growth accelerates.

U.S. Personal Spending Strengthens in January

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Real GDP grew 2.7% at an annual rate (0.9% y/y) during Q4'22, revised from the advance report of 2.9% growth. It followed 3.2% growth in Q3. The latest figure compares to expectations for a 3.0% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Faster inventory accumulation added an unrevised 1.5 percentage point to growth last quarter following a 1.2 percentage point subtraction in Q3. Improvement in the foreign trade deficit added 0.5 percentage point to growth, revised from 0.6, last quarter after a 2.9 percentage point addition in Q3. The gain occurred as exports fell 1.6% (+5.2% y/y), revised from 1.3%, after rising 14.6% in Q3. Imports weakened 4.2% (+1.8% y/y), revised from -4.6%, following a 7.3% decline.

Growth in domestic final demand slowed to a minimally revised 0.7% (+0.9% y/y) following a 1.5% Q3 rise. Real personal consumption expenditure growth of 1.4% last quarter (+1.8% y/y) was revised from 2.1% and followed 2.3% growth in Q3. Durable goods outlays fell 1.9% (+0.5% y/y), revised from 0.5% growth. Spending on motor vehicles & parts gained a downwardly revised 3.8% (-1.5% y/y), and furniture & appliance outlays declined 0.8% (-0.5% y/y), revised from a 0.4% gain. The decline in spending on recreational goods & vehicles was deepened to a 3.9% (+4.2% y/y). In the nondurable goods sector, spending rose 0.2% (-1.7% y/y), revised from 1.5%. Outlays on food & beverages eased 0.3% (-5.2% y/y), revised from a 1.1% gain, following three straight quarters of decline. Clothing outlays slipped 0.1% (+1.2% y/y), revised from a 0.8% gain while gasoline & oil expenditures rose a downwardly revised 1.1% (-3.6% y/y), also following three straight quarters of decline. Purchases of services strengthened a little-changed 2.4% (3.2% y/y) after stronger growth in the prior two quarters. Housing & utilities outlays gained 1.8% (1.4% y/y) and health care outlays increased a strengthened 5.9% (2.8% y/y), about the same as in Q3. Spending on recreation increased a steady 3.4% (4.5% y/y) while spending at restaurants & hotels rose 1.9% (5.6% y/y), the weakest rise in three quarters.

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Business fixed investment rose 3.3% (4.3% y/y) in Q4’22, revised from 0.7% after strengthening 6.2% in Q3. Structures investment strengthened 8.5% (-3.3% y/y), revised from 0.4%, but had been falling since the end of 2019.  Equipment investment fell 3.2% (+4.0% y/y), revised from -3.8%, reflecting an unchanged 23.3% decline (-2.1% y/y) in information processing equipment and a downwardly revised 30.4% rise (27.9% y/y) in transportation equipment. Investment in industrial equipment rose an upwardly revised 6.2% (-0.1% y/y) while investment in intellectual property products rose an upwardly revised 7.4% (8.5% y/y), remaining strong since the end of the 2020 recession.

Residential investment declined for the seventh consecutive quarter, tumbling a little-revised 25.9% (-19.0% y/y) in Q4, about the same as in Q3.

Government spending increased a little-changed 3.6% (0.8% y/y) in Q4’22, about the same as in Q3. Federal government spending surged a little-changed 5.9% (0.1% y/y) as defense spending rose 2.2% (-0.2% y/y). Nondefense outlays jumped 10.9% (0.5% y/y) following a 2.5% increase. State & local government spending rose an unrevised 2.3% (1.3% y/y) after increasing 3.7% in Q3.

The GDP chain price index increased 3.9% (6.4% y/y), revised from 3.5%, last quarter, remaining the weakest increase in two years. It was down from a 9.0% rise in Q2. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 3.5% increase. The PCE price Index rose 3.7% (5.7% y/y), revised from 3.2%, after increasing 4.3% in Q3. The PCE price index less food & energy gained 4.3% (4.8% y/y), revised from 3.9%, down from 5.6% in Q1. The nonresidential investment price index rose a minimally changed 3.4% (6.6% y/y). The equipment price index improved 6.0% (7.2% y/y). The intellectual property products price index slipped 0.6% (+2.2% y/y) after firm increases in the prior six quarters. The residential investment price index rose 6.7% (12.1% y/y), the weakest increase in two years. The government spending price index rose 3.5% (6.8% y/y), also the weakest increase in two years.

The GDP figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts. Both databases include tables of the newly published not seasonally adjusted data. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.


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- Consumer spending growth reduced but capital investment raised.
- Inventories & trade deficit improvement add to growth. 
- Q4 price gain revised higher but trend remains lower.

U.S. GDP Growth Revised Slightly Lower in Q4’22

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that their manufacturing sector business activity index of zero in February compared to modestly negative readings between -1 and -4 in the prior four months. The Kansas City measure is a diffusion index with positive readings indicating more respondents reporting increases than decreases in business activity. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes.

The ISM-Adjusted Index (NSA) of 49.6 compared to 49.7 in January but was increased from 44.5 in December. These readings were down from a high of 68.9 in March 2022.

A modest improvement in the current conditions measure reflected uneven changes amongst the component series. The new orders measure rose to its least negative reading since September while the supplier delivery time measure also improved. Deteriorating sharply m/m was the shipments measure along with materials inventories, production and orders backlogs.

The employment index rose sharply to 11, the highest level since August. An improved 29% of survey respondents reported more hiring while a lessened 16% reported a decline. Moving in the opposite direction, however, was the employee workweek reading which fell to the lowest level in nearly three years.

On the inflation front, the prices received index for finished products rose slightly to 17 but remained well below the high of 60 in August 2021. Twenty-six percent of respondents reported higher prices while a lessened 10% reported a decline.  The raw materials price measure rose to its highest level since October.

The future composite index (expectations in six months) fell sharply to 1, its lowest level since 	May 2020. Expected orders, shipments, employment and delivery times each declined, but expected production and inventories improved. Expectations for finished goods prices received also improved to the highest level in three months. The expected raw materials price measure similarly rose.

The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. The September survey was conducted during the third week of the month and included 95 responses from plants in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, northern New Mexico and western Missouri. Data for the Kansas City Fed Survey can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

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- Expectations continue to deteriorate.
- Pricing power remains weak.

Kansas City Fed Factory Index Is Unchanged in February

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Mortgage applications declined 13.3% (-57.2% y/y) in the week ended February 17 following a 7.7% fall during the prior week. The decline brought them to the lowest level since the first week of January, down 21.7% during the last four weeks. These data are from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.

Applications for home purchase loans plunged 18.1% (-41.3% y/y) in the latest week following a 5.5% decline in the week prior. Applications to refinance an existing loan fell 2.2% (-72.0% y/y) following a 12.5% decline in the prior week.

The percentage of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 32.5% in the week ended February 17, up from 26.1% at the end of November. The percentage of ARM loans rose to 7.6% but remained down from a recent high of 12.8% in the second week of October.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose w/w to 6.84% from 6.36% two weeks earlier. It remained below a high of 7.42% in the third week of October. The effective rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 6.22% last week from 6.06% in the prior week and 5.80% one week earlier. The rate on 30-year Jumbo loans increased to 6.59% from 6.38%. The rate on a 5-year ARM rose to 6.02% from 5.80% in the prior week. It was the highest rate since the third week of November.

The average loan size fell 1.1% (+1.6% y/y) to $378,400 in the week ended February 17 from $382,500 in the prior week. The series high of $401,900 was reached in the week ended May 6. The average size of a purchase loan fell to $431,900 (-4.1% y/y) from $433,300 in the week prior. The average loan size to refinance a mortgage declined to $267,200 (-9.3% y/y) from $274,300. It was the lowest level in five weeks.

The Mortgage Bankers Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

-	Purchase applications fall sharply; refinancing applications ease.
-	Mortgage interest rate on 30-year loan jumps.


U.S. Mortgage Applications Decline as Interest Rates Rise

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Retail gasoline prices eased in the week ended February 20 to $3.38 per gallon (-4.3% y/y) from $3.39 per gallon in the previous week. Prices remained below the mid-June 2022 peak of $5.01 per gallon but above their late December 2022 low of $3.09. The retail price of diesel fuel fell to $4.38 per gallon (+7.9% y/y) last week from $4.44 per gallon in the previous week. The price reached a peak of $5.81 per gallon in the third week of June 2022 but the latest cost was the lowest since February of last year.

The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to $78.53 per barrel (-15.4% y/y) in the week ended February 17 after climbing to $77.51 in the week prior. Prices have been near that level since early-December. Its recent high was $120.46 in the second week of June 2022. Yesterday, the price was $76.16 per barrel. The average price of Brent crude oil rose to $84.82 per barrel last week from $82.96 per barrel in the previous week. The price peaked at $124.05 in mid-June of 2022. Yesterday, the price was $82	.96 per barrel.

The price of natural gas moved up to $2.41/mmbtu (-45.1% y/y) in the week ended February 17 after falling to $2.34 in the prior week. Warm winter temperatures had caused prices to fall in the prior eight weeks from $6.78 in the third week of December. The current price is near the lowest level since October 2020. The most recent peak was $9.56/mmbtu in the last week of August. Yesterday, the price was $2.42/mmbtu.
	
In the four weeks ended February 10, gasoline demand declined 3.2% from a year earlier and has been falling since mid-2021. Demand for all petroleum products fell 10.2% y/y in the latest four weeks and also has been falling since 2021. Crude oil input to refineries fell 1.4% y/y, after it trended sideways through much of 2022. 

Gasoline inventories declined 2.1% y/y in the week ended February 10 but have risen sharply since early-November. Crude oil inventories slumped 15.4% y/y but have jumped since late-December.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories in the week ended February 10 edged up w/w to 29.0 days from 28.9 days in the previous week. The low had been 23.3 days in early-November. The supply of crude oil rose to 31.2 days and has been rising since a low of 25.2 days in the first week of December.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** and **DAILY** databases. Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data are in **USENERGY**.

-	Gasoline prices edge lower.
-	Crude oil prices improve.
-	Natural gas prices move up.

U.S. Energy Prices Remain Mixed

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Sales of existing homes eased 0.7% during January (-36.9% y/y) to 4.00 million (SAAR) from 4.03 million in December, revised from 4.02 million. Sales stood at the at the lowest level since October 2010. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected January sales of 4.020 million units.

Single-family home sales fell 0.8% (-36.1% y/y) in January to 3.59 million units. Sales have fallen in each month since January 2022. Condo and co-op sales held steady at 410,000 (-43.1% y/y), following a 6.8% December drop.

Sales were mixed m/m across the country. In the Midwest, sales declined 5.0% (-33.3%y/y) to 960,000 after a 1.9% December decline. Sales in the Northeast fell 3.8% (-35.9% y/y) to 500,000 following a 3.7% December drop. Working 2.9% higher (-42.4% y/y) were sales in the West to 720,000, following m/m stability in December. Also rising were sales in the South. The 1.1% January increase to 1.82 million (-36.6% y/y) came after a 2.7% December drop.

The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) rose 2.1% (15.3% y/y) in January, the first increase after five straight months of decline. The months' supply of homes on the market (NSA) held at 2.9 months at the current selling rate, up from a record low of 1.6 months reached in January of last year. These figures date back to January 1999.

The median price of an existing home (NSA) fell 2.0% (+1.3% y/y) to $359,000 following six straight months of decline. They were 13.2% below the June peak of $413,800. Prices declined last month in all four regions of the country.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Sales fall for twelfth straight month.	
- Changes were mixed across regions.
- Prices slide to twelve-month low.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Dip to Lowest Since 2010

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The Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicators Index fell 0.3% (-5.9% y/y) during January following a 0.8% December drop, revised from -1.0%. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.4% decline in the index for January.

Four of the Leading Index's ten components made negative contributions to the index change in January. Declining influences came from the ISM new orders diffusion index, the interest rate yield curve, consumer expectations for business/economic conditions and the leading credit index. Positive contributions came from the average workweek, initial claims for jobless insurance, factory orders for consumer goods, orders for nondefense capital goods and stock prices. Building permits were unchanged.

The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators edged up 0.2% last month (1.3% y/y) after a holding steady in December, revised from a 0.1% rise. Each of the four index components rose minimally, including payroll employment, real personal income less transfers, real business sales and industrial production. The diffusion index of the percent of components rising over the last six months has been zero since November.

The Index of Lagging Economic Indicators increased 0.2% in January (6.9% y/y) following a 0.6% December rise, revised from 0.3%. A rise in the banks’ prime rate, the consumer credit-to-personal income ratio and the 6-month change in the services CPI contributed positively to the index change. The average duration of unemployment, unit labor cost growth and C&I loans outstanding contributed negatively. The six-month change in the lagging index stood at 5.6%, down from its May high of 9.4%.

The ratio of the Coincident index to the Lagging index also is seen as a leading indicator as it measures current economic performance versus excesses. The ratio held steady last month but has been steadily declining since December of 2021, suggesting rising recession risks.

The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's **BCI** database; the components are available there, and most are also in **USECON**. The expectations are in the **AS1REPNA** database. Visit the Conference Board's [site](https://www.conference-board.org/) for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.

**Disinflation: Progress and Prospects** from James Bullard, President & CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available [here](https://www.stlouisfed.org/-/media/project/frbstl/stlouisfed/files/pdfs/bullard/remarks/2023/bullard-greater-jackson-chamber-16-feb-2023.pdf?sc_lang=en&hash=3AB128AC00BADE0564654D6EF816A351).

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- Index declines for tenth straight month.
- Coincident indicators rise slightly.
- Lagging indicators continue to increase.

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Ease in January

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Online retail sales edged a seasonally adjusted 0.1% lower (+6.5% y/y) in Q4’22 following increases of 1.6% and 3.1% in the prior two quarters, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. E-Commerce sales accounted for 14.7% of total retail sales in Q4'22 and has been steady at that level since 2020.

The following details of the E-Commerce data by sector are not seasonally adjusted.

Sales of nonstore retailers, which accounted for 59.2% of total E-Commerce, rose 19.1% last quarter (12.4% y/y) following a 1.8% rise in Q3. Clothing accessory store sales surged 41.3% (5.1% y/y) after easing 0.4% in Q3. Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument & book sales strengthened 34.3% (5.6% y/y) after rising 4.6% inQ3. General merchandise store sales jumped 26.3% last quarter (-0.3% y/y) after falling 2.3% in Q3. Sales of furniture & home furnishings improved 10.7% in Q4 (1.1% y/y) after rising 3.0% in Q3. Food & beverage purchases rose 14.4% (5.8% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick.

Building materials & garden equipment sales rose 3.2% in Q4 (7.1% y/y) after falling 11.4%. Miscellaneous sales including gasoline stations rose 3.9% (8.2% y/y) after falling 5.1% in Q3. Motor vehicle & parts sales weakened 4.0% (-2.5% y/y) following a 5.1% decline.

E-commerce sales are goods and services ordered over an internet, mobile device (M-commerce), extranet, Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) network, electronic mail, or other comparable online system. Payment may or may not be made online and sometimes sale & price are negotiated. Total sales estimates are adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes. They are also adjusted for trading-day differences and moving holidays.

E-Commerce sales data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database.

-	Decline follows four straight quarters of increase.
-	Changes in sales are uneven across categories.

U.S. E-Commerce Sales Slip in Q4'22

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The housing market continues to suffer under the weight of higher interest rates and reduced demand. Total housing starts fell 4.5% (-21.4% y/y) during January to 1.309 million units (SAAR) from 1.371 million in December, revised from 1.382 million. Starts have fallen for five straight months and were 27.5% below the April 2022 peak of 1.805 million units. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.37 million starts in January. 

The decline in starts last month occurred as single-family starts fell 4.3% (-27.3% y/y) to 841,000 after rising 8.9% in December. They have fallen 35.7% since the December 2020 peak. Multi-family starts weakened 4.9% (-8.1% y/y) last month to 468,000 after falling 19.6% in the prior month. They were 25.9% below the April 2022 peak.

Starts in the Northeast fell 42.2% (+13.3% y/y) to 119,000 after surging 136.8% in December. Starts in the Midwest declined 25.9% (-37.2% y/y) to 123,000 after falling 30.3% in December. To the upside, starts in the South increased 7.3% (-17.3% y/y) to 760,000 after two months of decline. Starts in the West rose 5.5% (-31.2% y/y) to 307,000 after falling 16.9% in December.

Building permits rose 0.1% (-27.3% y/y) to 1.339 million units during January from 1.337 million in December, revised from 1.330 million. Single-family permits declined 1.8% (-40.0% y/y) to 718,000 after falling for ten consecutive months. Multi-family permits rose 2.5% (-3.6% y/y) to 621,000 after rising 6.3% in December.

The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Single-family and multi-family starts weaken.
- Starts are mixed across the country.
- Building permits are little changed.


U.S. Housing Starts Decline in January

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its Composite Index of Business Conditions plunged to -24.3 during February from -8.9 in January. The index now stands at the lowest level since May 2020 and remained below its peak of 45.6 in April of 2021. It has been negative for eight of the last nine months. A reading of -7.4 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

The ISM-Adjusted Composite Index fell to 48.6 this month from 49.2 in January and continued to indicate a contraction in overall factory sector activity. It was well below its high of 65.4 in November 2021.

Movement amongst the component series varied. The new orders series fell to -13.6 in February from -10.9 in January. A lessened 21.7% of respondents reported orders improvement while a smaller 35.3% reported orders deterioration. The shipments index declined to 8.7 this month from 11.1 in January. These figures are down from 32.1 last May. A lessened 26.6% of respondents reported shipments improvement while a lessened 17.9% reported a decline. The delivery times reading dropped to -13.6 from -5.6, indicating a significant pick-up in product delivery speeds. The unfilled orders index remained negative for the ninth straight month. Working the other way, the inventories index surged to 15.3 after having been negative for most of the last nine months.

On the labor front, the employment index fell to 5.1 in February from 10.9 in January. It remained well below its April 2022 peak of 38.4 as a lessened 20.5% of respondents reported more hiring and an increased 15.4% reported less. The hours-worked index weakened to -3.2 and remained below its high of 35.3 in March of 2021.

The prices paid index edged higher to 26.5 from 24.5 in January. It has fallen from a high of 83.6 in November 2021. A lessened 34.2% of respondents reported higher prices while a fewer 7.7% reported price declines. The prices received index fell sharply to 14.9 from 29.9 in January. It stood at it its lowest point in two years, down from a high of 65.8 in November 2021.

The future business conditions index declined to 1.7 this month from 4.9 in January. These were first positive readings since June of 2022. Components were weak and most declined from January, except new orders & employment which improved. The expected prices paid index plunged to the lowest level since the recession.

The Philadelphia Fed data can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Index plunges to lowest level since 2020. 
- New orders, shipments and employment readings weaken.
- Prices paid index remains near recent low.

Philadelphia Fed Factory Index Tumbles in February

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After showing restraint for two months, consumers’ inclination to spend kicked into high gear last month as employment grew and core goods price inflation behaved. Retail sales jumped 3.0% during January (6.4% y/y), the largest monthly increase since March 2021. It followed an unrevised 1.1% December decline and a little-revised 1.1% November drop. A 2.0% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The widespread nature of the increase is highlighted by the 2.3% strengthening (7.3% y/y) in nonauto sales last month. It recovered declines of 0.9% and 0.8% in December and November, respectively. Expectations had been for a 0.8% increase.  

Last month’s sales strength was led by a 5.9% surge (2.8% y/y) in motor vehicle sales after they weakened 1.8% in December and 2.2% in November. The increase compared to a 19.2% rise in unit vehicle sales which also recovered two months of sharp decline. Gasoline station sales held steady last month (+5.7% y/y) after falling sharply in five of the prior six months. 

Sales amongst other stores were strong. Spending in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline & restaurants, jumped 1.7% (4.4% y/y) after easing 0.7% in December and 0.5% in November. 

Furniture and home furnishing store sales surged 4.4% (3.8% y/y) after declining 1.6% in December. Electronics and appliance store sales improved 3.5% (-6.3% y/y) after sharp declines during each of the prior eight months. Sales of nonstore retailers rose 1.3% (3.0% y/y) last month after a 1.0% decline while apparel sales improved 2.5% (6.3% y/y) in January after easing modestly in each of the prior three months. General merchandise sales improved 3.2% (4.5% y/y) after three months of slight decline. Within that category, department store sales strengthened 17.5% (5.4% y/y) after sharp declines from October through December. Sporting goods	 & hobby shop store sales improved 0.2% (6.9% y/y), the same as in December. Building materials store sales rose 0.3% (1.1% y/y) after December’s 1.1% jump.

In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales rebounded 1.9% (3.6% y/y) after a 1.8% December decline. Food & beverage store sales rose 0.1% last month (6.2% y/y) and recovered December’s 0.1% dip. 

Consumers drove sales at restaurant & drinking places up by 7.2% in January (25.2% y/y) after holding roughly steady in December and November.

Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Increases are widespread.
- Discretionary outlays lead the upturn.
- Gasoline spending is unchanged.

U.S. Retail Sales Surge in January

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The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo rose 20.0% (-48.1% y/y) during February to 42 after rising 12.9% to 35 in January. It was the highest level since September 2022. A February reading of 37 had been expected in the Informa Global Markets survey.

Performance amongst the components of the index was uniformly strong this month. The index of current sales conditions rose 15.0% (-48.3% y/y) to 46. It also was the highest level in five months but remained well below the record-high of 96 in November 2020. The index of expected sales over the next six months improved 29.7% in February (-40.0% y/y) to 48, a seven-month high. The index measuring traffic of prospective buyers increased 26.1% (-55.4% y/y) after a 15.0% January improvement.

Amongst the regions of the country, the Housing Market Index in the Northeast rose 35.3% (-39.5% y/y) to 46, a four-month high. The index in the West increased 27.6% (-59.3% y/y) to 37, a six-month high. In the South, the index improved 15.4% (-46.4% y/y) to 45, the third straight month of increase. The index in the Midwest rose 12.5% (-49.3% y/y) to 36, a four-month high.

The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions which ask builders to rate sales and sales expectations as "good," "fair" or "poor" and traffic as "very high," "average" or "very low". The figures are diffusion indexes with values over 50 indicating a predominance of "good"/"very high" readings. In constructing the composite index, the weights assigned to the individual index components are: 0.5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, 0.1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months, and 0.2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. These data are included in Haver's **SURVEYS** database. The Informa Global Markets survey is in Haver's **MMSAMER** database.

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- Current sales & prospects improve.
- Traffic of prospective buyers strengthens.
- Improvement seen across the country.

U.S. Home Builder Index Increases in February

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