- A three-month low and the first narrowing since December.
- Exports rebound 2.5% in June, the second m/m gain in three months.
- Imports rise 0.7% m/m vs. a 0.7% May drop.
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
USA| Jul 24 2024U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Narrows to $96.84 Billion in June
- Import prices 0.0% (1.6% y/y) in June vs. -0.2% (+1.4% y/y) in May, reflecting a 1.0% m/m drop in imported fuel prices.
- Excluding fuels, import prices rise 0.2%, up for the seventh time in eight months.
- Export prices fall 0.5% (+0.7% y/y), led by a 0.6% m/m decline in nonag export prices.
- Year-on-year import & export price growth rates rise modestly.
- Affordability continues to fall, w/ HAI down for four straight months.
- Median sales price of a home rises for the fourth consecutive month to a record high.
- Mortgage rates up to a six-month-high 7.14%; mortgage payments up to a record high.
- Median family income rises to a record-high $102,364 (+5.3% y/y).
- 48.8 in June vs. 53.8 in May; 3.3 pts. below the 12-month average of 52.1.
- Business Activity (49.6, the first contraction since May ’20), New Orders (47.3, the first contraction since Dec. ’22), Employment (46.1, the fifth straight contraction), and Supplier Deliveries (52.2, above 50 for the second successive month).
- Prices Index falls to a three-month-low 56.3, albeit remaining above 50 since June ’17.
- May construction spending -0.1% m/m; +6.4% y/y, the lowest since July ’23.
- Residential private construction down 0.2% m/m, led by a 0.7% drop in single-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction down 0.3% m/m, the fourth straight m/m fall.
- Public sector construction up 0.5% m/m, reflecting m/m gains in both residential & nonresidential public buildings.
- 47.4 in June vs. 35.4 in May; 5.4 pts. above the year-to-date average of 42.0.
- All the five subindexes increase in June but three remain below 50.
- New Orders (45.6, the 9th contraction in 10 mths.), Employment (44.1, the 7th straight contraction), Order Backlogs (40.5, the highest reading since Nov.), Production (54.6, the first expansion since Dec.), and Supplier Deliveries (50.7, the first above 50 since Jan.).
- Prices paid index falls 11.9 pts. to 56.5, a one-year low.
USA| Jun 27 2024U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Again in May
- May PHSI at a record low; two straight m/m declines after rises in Mar. and Feb.
- Home sales fall m/m in the Midwest and South but rebound in the Northeast and West.
- Home sales decline y/y in the four regions, w/ the deepest fall in the South (-10.4%).
USA| Jun 25 2024U.S. FHFA House Prices Rise Modestly in April, w/ the Lowest Y/Y Rate Since Sept. ’23
- FHFA HPI +0.2% (+6.3% y/y) in April vs. unchanged (+6.7% y/y) in March.
- House prices rise m/m in six of nine census divisions, w/ the highest rate in East South Central (1.4%).
- House prices gain y/y in all of the nine regions, w/ the highest rate in New England (8.5%).
- The May LEI decline led by a decrease in new orders, weak consumer sentiment on future business conditions, and lower building permits.
- Coincident Economic Index up for the fourth straight month.
- Lagging Economic Index down for the first time since December.
USA| Jun 20 2024U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Falls to a Five-Month Low in June
- Despite the June drop, Current General Activity Index (1.3) remains in positive territory, suggesting expansion.
- Key subindexes remain negative: Shipments (-7.2), New Orders (-2.2), and Employment (-2.5).
- Inflation indicators suggest widespread price increases.
- Future General Activity Index (13.8) remains in positive territory, albeit w/ less widespread expectations for overall future growth.
- Manufacturers’ new orders +0.7% (+1.3% y/y) in April; +0.7% (+1.5% y/y) in March.
- Durable goods orders (0.6%), nondurable goods orders (0.8%) and shipments (1.0%) rise for the third consecutive month.
- Unfilled orders increase 0.2% after a 0.3% March gain.
- Inventories edge up 0.1% after holding steady.
USA| Jun 03 2024U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Eases in April
- April construction spending -0.1% m/m; +10.0% y/y, the lowest since Sept. ’23.
- Residential private construction increases 0.1% m/m, led by a 0.3% rebound in home improvement building.
- Nonresidential private construction falls 0.3% m/m, down for the third month in four.
- Public sector construction declines 0.2% m/m, reflecting m/m drops in both residential & nonresidential public buildings.
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