- FHFA HPI +0.2% (+6.3% y/y) in April vs. unchanged (+6.7% y/y) in March.
- House prices rise m/m in six of nine census divisions, w/ the highest rate in East South Central (1.4%).
- House prices gain y/y in all of the nine regions, w/ the highest rate in New England (8.5%).
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
USA| Jun 25 2024U.S. FHFA House Prices Rise Modestly in April, w/ the Lowest Y/Y Rate Since Sept. ’23
- The May LEI decline led by a decrease in new orders, weak consumer sentiment on future business conditions, and lower building permits.
- Coincident Economic Index up for the fourth straight month.
- Lagging Economic Index down for the first time since December.
USA| Jun 20 2024U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Falls to a Five-Month Low in June
- Despite the June drop, Current General Activity Index (1.3) remains in positive territory, suggesting expansion.
- Key subindexes remain negative: Shipments (-7.2), New Orders (-2.2), and Employment (-2.5).
- Inflation indicators suggest widespread price increases.
- Future General Activity Index (13.8) remains in positive territory, albeit w/ less widespread expectations for overall future growth.
- Manufacturers’ new orders +0.7% (+1.3% y/y) in April; +0.7% (+1.5% y/y) in March.
- Durable goods orders (0.6%), nondurable goods orders (0.8%) and shipments (1.0%) rise for the third consecutive month.
- Unfilled orders increase 0.2% after a 0.3% March gain.
- Inventories edge up 0.1% after holding steady.
USA| Jun 03 2024U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Eases in April
- April construction spending -0.1% m/m; +10.0% y/y, the lowest since Sept. ’23.
- Residential private construction increases 0.1% m/m, led by a 0.3% rebound in home improvement building.
- Nonresidential private construction falls 0.3% m/m, down for the third month in four.
- Public sector construction declines 0.2% m/m, reflecting m/m drops in both residential & nonresidential public buildings.
- 35.4 in May vs. 37.9 in April.
- All the five subindexes remain below 50.
- New Orders (28.7, lowest since May ’20), Employment (37.2, lowest since June ’20), Production (43.6, contracting for the fifth straight month), Order Backlogs (26.3, a four-year low), and Supplier Deliveries (48.1 vs. 47.3).
- Prices paid index dips 0.9 pt. to 68.4, remaining at an elevated level.
USA| May 30 2024U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Widens to $99.41 Billion in April
- Largest goods trade deficit since May ’22 and larger than expected.
- Exports rebound 0.5% in April, the fourth m/m gain in five months.
- Imports rise 3.1% vs. a 1.7% March drop.
USA| May 28 2024U.S. FHFA House Prices Edge Up in March
- FHFA HPI +0.1% (+6.7% y/y) in Mar. vs. +1.2% (+7.1% y/y) in Feb.
- House prices rise m/m in four of nine census divisions, w/ the highest rate in Middle Atlantic (1.5%).
- House prices gain y/y in all of the nine regions, w/ the highest rate in Middle Atlantic (11.0%).
- May Composite Index at -2 reflects negative readings in new orders (-13) and production (-1), while employment (9) expands to the highest level since Mar. ’23.
- Price indexes increase, w/ both prices paid (19) and prices received (7) up to a four-month high.
- Expectations for future activity grow modestly, w/ prices paid (40) continuing to rise at a faster pace than prices received (26).
- +0.02% (+3.0% y/y) in Apr.; downward revisions for Mar. and Feb.
- Ex-auto sales up for the fourth month in five.
- Auto sales down for the third month in four.
- Gasoline sales post the largest of three straight m/m increases.
- Nonstore retail sales fall for the third time in four months.
USA| May 14 2024U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Edges Up in April While Inflation Remains the Number One Problem
- Apr. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index inches up 1.2 pts. to 89.7, the first m/m gain since December.
- Expected real sales increase to -12% after falling to -18%, still indicating pessimism.
- Business conditions in the next six months decline to -37%, down for the third month in four.
- Inflation (22%) is top business problem, followed by Quality of Labor (19%).
- 49.2 in April vs. 50.3 in March, lower than expected.
- Production expands for the third month in four.
- Employment contracts for the seventh straight month.
- New orders contract to a four-month low after March’s expansion.
- Amid ongoing inflationary pressures, prices index rises to 60.9, the highest since June ’22.
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