Global| Jan 10 2008French Industrial Production: Losing Momentum
Summary
French IP sank by more than excepted dropping by 1.5% in November. We can thank a French rail strike for some of this weakness. It’s one of the reasons the declines spread across sectors - the rail strike hit all sectors. But in the [...]
French IP sank by more than excepted dropping by 1.5% in
November. We can thank a French rail strike for some of this weakness.
It’s one of the reasons the declines spread across sectors - the rail
strike hit all sectors.
But in the fourth quarter-to-date total IP is up at a 2.5%
pace despite the flattering momentum. Consumer output is weak in Q3,
however, and is dropping at a 3.5% annual rate. Capital goods output is
strong in the quarter, up at a 3% pace in Q4. Intermediate goods output
is up at a very tame 0.3% pace in Q4 but auto output is leading the
pace with a 10.5% annual rate gain in Q4 with two months of hard data
in.
| French IP Excluding Construction | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAAR except m/m | Nov-07 | Oct-07 | Sep-07 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo | Quarter-to-date |
| IP total | -1.5% | 2.1% | -1.3% | -3.0% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Consumer goods | -0.3% | 0.2% | -1.6% | -6.6% | -1.0% | 0.6% | -3.5% |
| Capital goods | 0.3% | 1.2% | -1.2% | 1.4% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.0% |
| Intermediate goods | -1.6% | 1.8% | -1.1% | -3.6% | -2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Memo | |||||||
| Auto | -5.3% | 7.5% | -4.2% | -9.6% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 10.5% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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