- Output revised modestly upward and hours modestly downward.
- Compensation now has more moderate advance in Q1.
- Manufacturing productivity now seen with bigger decline.
Introducing
Carol Stone, CBE
in:Our Authors
Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
Publications by Carol Stone, CBE
USA| Jun 01 2023U.S. Q1 Productivity Move Revised To Be Less Negative
USA| May 31 2023U.S. JOLTS Job Openings Rise in April after 3 Months of Declines
- Openings were mixed by industry with biggest rate increase transportation & trade.
- Hires up after 2 monthly declines.
- Layoffs down after spike in March.
USA| May 26 2023U.S. Manufacturers’ Durable Goods Orders Still Firm in April, but Some Industries Saw Declines
- Transportation orders excluding aircraft & vehicles advanced in April.
- Computers, electrical equipment & metals orders all decreased.
- Shipments of all manufacturers were down, while inventories reversed March decline.
- May 20 week initial claims up 4,000.
- Latest continuing claims decreased 5,000.
- Insured unemployment rate holds steady for 4th straight week.
USA| May 18 2023Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey Still Negative in May, but Less Weak than in April
- Index at -10.4%, markedly less weak than April’s -31.3%.
- New orders & shipments still negative, but less than month before.
- Prices received weaker in May, but prices paid were stronger.
- Total inventories ease by 0.1% in March.
- Total business sales down 1.2%.
- Retailers’ inventories rise 0.7%.
USA| May 16 2023U.S. Energy Prices Mixed, Move Modestly in Latest Week
- Gasoline prices basically steady
- Crude oil and natural gas rise slightly
- Petroleum demand rises for especially crude oil and gasoline
USA| May 11 2023U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims Highest since Oct 2021
- Initial claims up 22,000 in latest week
- Continuing claims rise slightly but still lower than early April
- Insured unemployment rate steady
USA| May 10 2023Mortgage Loan Volume Rebounds in Latest Week
- Mortgage applications rose, pushed by refi activity.
- Effective interest rates decrease slightly for all major types of mortgages.
- Average loan size increases, also reflecting advance in refi loans.
USA| May 04 2023U.S. Productivity Turns Down in Q1
- Output barely rises in Q1.
- Hours worked advance at a 3.0% pace.
- Manufacturing productivity declines outright.
USA| Apr 28 2023U.S. Employment Cost Index Ticks Up Modestly in Q1
- Steady increase in ECI since mid-2021.
- Wages and benefits for all workers both advanced 1.2% in Q1.
- Goods-producing industries slightly stronger than service-providers.
- Initial claims in tight range still just above pre-pandemic amounts.
- Continuing weeks claimed edge slightly lower in latest week.
- Insured unemployment rate steady at 1.3%.
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