The results of the December Hometrack Survey of real estate agents in England and Wales regarding the prices at which houses are being sold and the ease or difficulty in making sales was released today. The year to year decline in [...]
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Global| Dec 23 2008GDP Data For Third Quarter Of 2008: Paths To Recession
The United Kingdom, the United States, Denmark, the Netherlands and New Zealand released their, for the most part, final estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter of 2008 today. The quarterly percent changes in GDP for [...]
Japan announced today a 233 billion yen deficit in its foreign trade for the month of November. Monthly deficits in foreign trade are rare in Japan and this was the third deficit in the last four months. On a three month moving [...]
- Global| Dec 16 2008
Vanishing Inflation and the Decline in Commodity Prices
More countries are reporting declining rates of inflation. Recently published inflation rates in the four largest countries of Europe--Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom--continue to trend downward, as can be seen in the [...]
- Global| Dec 15 2008
Growth in Chinese Industrial Production Slows: A Proxy for GDP Growth
Chinese industrial production increased 5.4% in November, the smallest increase since 2002. Growth in industrial production declined intermittently for a year after reaching a monthly year to year peak of 19.5% in June, 2007, but in [...]
- Global| Dec 09 2008
German Investors Slightly Less Pessimistic About The Outlook, But See Current Conditions Worsening
The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim, Germany released the results of its December survey today. In spite of an increase of 8.3 percentage points in the balance of opinion of German investors and analystsregarding the macroeconomic outlook, they are still about as pessimistic as they ever have been. The recent decline in sentiment began in mid 2007 with the spreading effects of the United States housing crisis and reached a low in July of this year when the excess of pessimists over optimists reached 63.9%. The only other period when pessimists exceeded optimists for a prolonged period took place in 1992 and early 1993. At that time, the excess of pessimists reached a peak of 62.2% in December1993 as shown in the attached chart, which shows the history of the ZEW indicators.
The reduction in the key interest rate of the European Central Bank, which now stands at 2.5%, down from 5.25% in September and the recent passage of a 32 billion euro stimulus plan by the German government may have helped to arrest the downward trend in pessimism regarding the outlook and to lead to the modest improvement in sentiment.
In contrast to the improvement in sentiment regarding the outlook, investors and analysts became more pessimistic in December about current conditions . The excess of pessimists over optimists regarding current condition now stands at 64.5%, up from 50.4% in November and not far from the high negatives of 1993 and 2003, as can be seen in the attached chart. While the fiscal and monetary measures undertaken in recent weeks may have improved sentiment concerning the outlook, there have been few, if any, encouraging developments in the real economy.
GERMANY Dec 08 Nov 08 Dec 07 M/M chg Y/Y chg 2007 2006 2005 ZEW INDICATOR (% BALANCE) - - - - - - - - Current Situation -64.5 -50.4 63.5 -14.1 -128.0 7.3 75.9 18.3 Future Conditions -45.2 -53.5 -37.2 8.3 -8.0 -47.5 -3.0 22.3 - Global| Dec 08 2008
Japan's Current Account Balance In Sharp Deterioration
Japan's current account balance has deteriorated severely this year. The balance for the first 10 months of 2008 was a surplus 14,943 billion yen, compared with 21,206 billion yen surplus in the comparable period of 2007, a decline of [...]
- Global| Dec 02 2008
The Economic Slowdown in Asia
GDP Growth in Asia is clearly decelerating. South Korea, one of the last Asian countries to release their third quarter GDP report, did so today. GDP in Korea increased 0.51% in the third quarter, down from 0.83% in the second quarter [...]
- Global| Dec 01 2008
The Recent Rise of the U.S. Dollar
J.P. Morgan's broad effective exchange rate for the U. S. hasstaged a dramatic reversal in its long decline since 2001 by appreciating 17% from July 15 to last Friday. The first chart shows the daily values of this index over that [...]
- Global| Nov 24 2008
Comparing Current Trends with Those in the Great Depression
Haver Analytics has a number of series that may prove useful in comparing and contrasting current conditions with those in the Great Depression.Among them are the annual series of real and nominal gross domestic product, its [...]
- Global| Nov 18 2008
Inflation in the U.K. Declines in October
The United Kingdom released inflation numbers today. The acceleration in inflation in the previous months came to a halt in October. The official measure, the year- to- year percent change in the consumer price index, fell to 4.5% in [...]
- Global| Nov 17 2008
Euro Area's September Trade Deficit of 5.7 Billion Euros Shows Little Change from August
The Euro Areatrade balance in September was -5,742 million euros virtually unchanged fromthe -5,705 million euros in August. It was, however, 8,549 million euros below the trade surplus of 2,807 million euros in September 2007. Since [...]
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