- The headline index was below the boom-bust 50 level for sixth consecutive month.
- New orders and production indexes increased but remained below 50.
- The employment index fell to further below 50.
Introducing
Sandy Batten
in:Our Authors
Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
Publications by Sandy Batten
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Sep 26 2024Q2 2024 U.S. GDP Unrevised in Third Estimate
- GDP grew at a solid 3.0% q/q SAAR in the third estimate of Q2, unrevised from the second estimate.
- Q2 PCE, fixed investment revised slightly weaker.
- Bigger boost from inventories; bigger drag from trade in Q2.
- In the benchmark revisions back to 2019, GDP and PCE growth were notably stronger, especially in each of the past three years.
- Meaningful upward revisions to both corporate profits and personal income over the past several years.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Sep 19 2024U.S. Existing Home Sales Fell in August
- Second lowest level since October 2010.
- Sales fell in the South, West, and Northeast, while the Midwest registered no change.
- The median price fell for the second consecutive month, but from a record high in June.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Sep 19 2024U.S. Current Account Deficit Widened Markedly in Q2 2024
- Second largest deficit on record.
- Goods deficit key factor, widening by more than $20 billion.
- Services surplus essentially unchanged.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
- IP rebounded 0.8% m/m in August with downward revisions to June and July.
- Swing in auto production major factor; motor vehicle output soared 9.8% m/m in August after an 8.9% m/m collapse in July.
- Mining output also rebounded in August while utilities output was unchanged.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Sep 04 2024U.S. Factory Orders Rebound in July
- Total orders rose 5.0% m/m in July after a 3.3% decline in June.
- Aircraft orders surged more than 4385% after having plummeted in June.
- Total shipments increased 0.9% m/m.
- Unfilled orders rose 0.2% m/m; inventories edged up 0.1% m/m.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Sep 04 2024U.S. International Trade Deficit Widens in July
- Trade deficit widened to $78.8 billion in July, the widest since June 2022.
- The goods deficit widened to $103.1 billion while the services surplus narrowed slightly to $24.3 billion.
- Exports edged up 0.5% m/m while imports jumped 2.1% m/m.
- The real deficit widened further, indicating that net exports may be a further drag on GDP growth in Q3.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Aug 29 2024Q2 2024 U.S. GDP Revised Up in Second Estimate
- GDP grew 3.0% q/q SAAR in Q2, up from 2.8% in the advance report.
- The upward revision was due completely to an upward revision to PCE growth.
- All other major expenditure components were revised slightly weaker.
- Corporate profits rebounded in Q2, rising 1.7% q/q after falling 1.4% in Q1.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Aug 27 2024Consumer Confidence Rises Slightly in August
- The overall index increased more than expected to 103.3, its highest reading since February.
- Both the present situation and the expectations indexes rose.
- Labor market indicators continued to decline.
- Inflation expectations fell to lowest since March 2020.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
- The index rose to -3 from -13, indicating that the pace of decline had slowed.
- Expectations for future activity remained positive, rising in August from July.
- The production index increased to 6, the first positive reading in six months.
- All other major components of the headline index improved in August but remained at zero or below.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
- Index increase slightly to -4.7 but remained in negative territory for ninth consecutive month.
- Haver calculated ISM-type index also remained in contraction territory.
- New orders still negative while shipments were positive for third straight month.
- Employment indicators still weak.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Aug 15 2024Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Falls Markedly in August
- The headline index unexpectedly slumped to -7.0 in August from 13.9 in July.
- The first negative reading since January.
- However, the ISM PMI version calculated by Haver remained above 50 at 52.5.
- Employment fell to back below zero.
- Expectations also fell markedly.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
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