Tom Moeller

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>

	 
 
 
 

 <a href="/comment/171027a.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171027a.png"></a>
	 <a href="/comment/171027b.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171027b.png"></a>

Economic growth of 3.0% (2.3% y/y) during Q3'17 roughly
matched growth during Q2. Together, these were the firmest quarters since the
middle of 2014. The latest figure surpassed expectations for a 2.6% rise in the
Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Commerce Department indicated that
Hurricane Harvey reduced oil &amp; gas output, while Hurricane Irma lessened
agriculture production.

The change in business inventories added 0.7 percentage
points to growth last quarter following a one-tenth of a percentage point Q2
addition. Improvement in net exports added a 0.4 percentage point to growth, the
most in a year. Exports grew 2.3% (2.3% y/y), the weakest advance in three
quarters. Imports fell 0.8% (+3.2% y/y), the first decline since Q1'16.

Domestic final sales growth of 1.8% (2.3% y/y) was the
weakest advance since Q1'16 as it decelerated from 2.7% in Q2. Consumer spending
growth slowed to 2.4% (2.6% y/y) from 3.3% as nondurable goods consumption
halved to 2.1% (2.5% y/y). Gasoline &amp; fuel oil consumption declined 4.8%
(-1.3% y/y) while clothing purchases fell 0.5% (+1.6% y/y. Durable goods
consumption growth quickened to 8.3% (6.2% y/y) as motor vehicle buying
strengthened 14.7% (4.3% y/y). Spending on home furnishings and appliances
advanced 7.4% (6.6% y/y), but recreational goods purchases eased 0.2% (+8.5 y/y)
following three straight quarters of double-digit growth. Services spending grew
1.5% (2.1% y/y), the weakest quarterly gain in four years. Housing utilities
spending gained 0.2% (0.6% y/y) after a 3.4% rise. Recreation spending
strengthened 3.7% (3.0% y/y) while restaurant &amp; hotel expenditures rose 2.8% (1.2% y/y).

<a href="/comment/171027c.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171027c.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/171027d.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171027d.png"></a>

Business fixed investment grew 3.9% (4.4% y/y). Three-quarter
growth averaging 5.9% was the quickest in three years and up from a 0.6% decline
last year. Equipment spending grew a steady 8.6% (5.9% y/y) as investment in
information processing equipment jumped 12.9% (8.6% y/y). Industrial equipment
investment grew 5.6% (7.6% y/y) and intellectual property product investment
improved 4.3% (3.3% y/y). Structures investment fell 5.2% (+3.3% y/y) after a 7.0% rise.

Residential investment fell 6.0% following a 7.3% decline.
Year-to-year growth of 0.9% was down from the peak 13.5% advance during all of 2012.

Government sector spending eased 0.1% (-0.2% y/y), off for
the third straight quarter. State &amp; local government spending fell 0.9%
(-0.3% y/y) following a 1.5% decline. Federal government investment increased
1.2% after a 1.9% Q2 gain, but it was unchanged y/y. Defense spending grew 2.3%
(0.1% y/y) after a 4.7% rise. Nondefense spending eased 0.5% (-0.0% y/y), off
for the third straight quarter.

The GDP price index strengthened 2.2% (1.8% y/y), the
quickest increase in five quarters. The gain was led by a 5.1% increase (4.0%
y/y) in the residential investment price index. The government consumption price
index rose 2.5% both q/q and y/y. The personal consumption price index gained
1.5% (1.5% y/y), up from the 0.3% Q2 increase and the business fixed investment
price index rose 1.3% (1.3% y/y).

The GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA
database. USNA contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail
in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the
recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus
estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.

<a href="/comment/171027f.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171027f.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/171027g.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171027g.png"></a>


	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" ><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E701/@E701.HTM" ;>Chained
 2009 $ (%, AR</a>)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q3'17 (Advance Estimate)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q2'17 </th>
 <th scope="col" >Q1'17</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q3'17 Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" >2016</th>
 <th scope="col" >2015</th>
 <th scope="col" >2014</th>
 </tr>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Gross Domestic Product</td>
 <td >3.0</td>
 <td >3.1</td>
 <td >1.2</td>
 <td >2.3</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 <td >2.9</td>
 <td >2.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Inventory Effect</td>
 <td >0.7</td>
 <td >0.12</td>
 <td >-1.5</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >-0.4</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Final Sales</td>
 <td >2.26</td>
 <td >2.95</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 <td >2.2</td>
 <td >1.9</td>
 <td >2.6</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Foreign Trade Effect</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 <td >-0.2</td>
 <td >-0.7</td>
 <td >0.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Domestic Final Sales</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 <td >2.4</td>
 <td >2.3</td>
 <td >2.1</td>
 <td >3.3</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey3">
 <td class="firstcol" colSpan="9" >Demand Components</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td >2.4</td>
 <td >3.3</td>
 <td >1.9</td>
 <td >2.6</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 <td >3.6</td>
 <td >2.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Business Fixed Investment</td>
 <td >3.9</td>
 <td >6.7</td>
 <td >7.1</td>
 <td >4.4</td>
 <td >-0.6</td>
 <td >2.3</td>
 <td >6.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Residential Investment</td>
 <td >-6.0</td>
 <td >-7.3</td>
 <td >11.1</td>
 <td >0.9</td>
 <td >5.5</td>
 <td >10.2</td>
 <td >3.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Government Spending</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 <td >-0.2</td>
 <td >-0.6</td>
 <td >-0.2</td>
 <td >0.8</td>
 <td >1.4</td>
 <td >-0.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey3">
 <td class="firstcol" colSpan="9" >Chain-Type Price Index</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; GDP&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
 <td >2.2</td>
 <td >1.0</td>
 <td >2.0</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >1.1</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Personal Consumption
 Expenditures</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >2.2</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 <td >1.2</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Less Food/Energy</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >0.9</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >1.6</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
 
 

</html>

Economic growth of 3.0% (2.3% y/y) during Q3'17 roughly matched growth during Q2. Together, these were the firmest quarters since the middle of 2014. The latest figure surpassed expectations for a 2.6% rise in the Action Economics [...]

U.S. GDP Growth Remains Firm in Q3, Despite Storm Effects

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>

	 
 
 
 

 <a href="/comment/171027a.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171027a.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/171027g.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171027g.png"></a>

Economic growth of 3.0% (2.3% y/y) during Q3'17 roughly
matched growth during Q2. Together, these were the firmest quarters since the
middle of 2014. The latest figure surpassed expectations for a 2.6% rise in the
Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Commerce Department indicated that
Hurricane Harvey reduced oil &amp; gas output, while Hurricane Irma lessened
agriculture production.

The GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA
database. USNA contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail
in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the
recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus
estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.


	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" ><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E701/@E701.HTM" ;>Chained
 2009 $ (%, AR</a>)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q3'17 (Advance Estimate)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q2'17 </th>
 <th scope="col" >Q1'17</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q4'16</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q3'17 Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" >2016</th>
 <th scope="col" >2015</th>
 <th scope="col" >2014</th>
 </tr>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Gross Domestic Product</td>
 <td >3.0</td>
 <td >3.1</td>
 <td >1.2</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 <td >2.3</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 <td >2.9</td>
 <td >2.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Inventory Effect</td>
 <td >0.7</td>
 <td >0.12</td>
 <td >-1.5</td>
 <td >1.1</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >-0.4</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Final Sales</td>
 <td >2.26</td>
 <td >2.95</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 <td >0.7</td>
 <td >2.2</td>
 <td >1.9</td>
 <td >2.6</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Foreign Trade Effect</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >-1.6</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 <td >-0.2</td>
 <td >-0.7</td>
 <td >0.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Domestic Final Sales</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 <td >2.4</td>
 <td >2.3</td>
 <td >2.3</td>
 <td >2.1</td>
 <td >3.3</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey3">
 <td class="firstcol" colSpan="9" >Demand Components</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td >2.4</td>
 <td >3.3</td>
 <td >1.9</td>
 <td >2.9</td>
 <td >2.6</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 <td >3.6</td>
 <td >2.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Business Fixed Investment</td>
 <td >3.9</td>
 <td >6.7</td>
 <td >7.1</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >4.4</td>
 <td >-0.6</td>
 <td >2.3</td>
 <td >6.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Residential Investment</td>
 <td >-6.0</td>
 <td >-7.3</td>
 <td >11.1</td>
 <td >7.1</td>
 <td >0.9</td>
 <td >5.5</td>
 <td >10.2</td>
 <td >3.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Government Spending</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 <td >-0.2</td>
 <td >-0.6</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >-0.2</td>
 <td >0.8</td>
 <td >1.4</td>
 <td >-0.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey3">
 <td class="firstcol" colSpan="9" >Chain-Type Price Index</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; GDP&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
 <td >2.2</td>
 <td >1.0</td>
 <td >2.0</td>
 <td >2.0</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >1.1</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Personal Consumption
 Expenditures</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >2.2</td>
 <td >2.0</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 <td >1.2</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Less Food/Energy</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >0.9</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >1.6</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
 
 

</html>

<html>

<head>
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=windows-1252">
<meta name="GENERATOR" content="Microsoft FrontPage 4.0">
<meta name="ProgId" content="FrontPage.Editor.Document">
<title>U</title>
</head>



 

Economic growth of 3.0% (2.3% y/y) during Q3'17 roughly
matched growth during Q2. Together, these were the firmest quarters since the
middle of 2014. The latest figure surpassed expectations for a 2.6% rise in the
Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Commerce Department indicated that
Hurricane Harvey reduced oil &amp; gas output, while Hurricane Irma lessened
agriculture production.
The change in business inventories added 0.7 percentage
points to growth last quarter following a one-tenth of a percentage point Q2
addition. Improvement in net exports added a 0.4 percentage point to growth, the
most in a year. Exports grew 2.3% (2.3% y/y), the weakest advance in three
quarters. Imports fell 0.8% (+3.2% y/y), the first decline since Q1'16.
Domestic final sales growth of 1.8% (2.3% y/y) was the
weakest advance since Q1'16 as it decelerated from 2.7% in Q2. Consumer spending
growth slowed to 2.4% (2.6% y/y) from 3.3% as nondurable goods consumption
halved to 2.1% (2.5% y/y). Gasoline &amp; fuel oil consumption declined 4.8%
(-1.3% y/y) while clothing purchases fell 0.5% (+1.6% y/y. Durable goods
consumption growth quickened to 8.3% (6.2% y/y) as motor vehicle buying
strengthened 14.7% (4.3% y/y). Spending on home furnishings and appliances
advanced 7.4% (6.6% y/y), but recreational goods purchases eased 0.2% (+8.5 y/y)
following three straight quarters of double-digit growth. Services spending grew
1.5% (2.1% y/y), the weakest quarterly gain in four years. Housing utilities
spending gained 0.2% (0.6% y/y) after a 3.4% rise. Recreation spending
strengthened 3.7% (3.0% y/y) while restaurant &amp; hotel expenditures rose 2.8%
(1.2% y/y).&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Business fixed investment grew 3.9% (4.4% y/y). Three-quarter
growth averaging 5.9% was the quickest in three years and up from a 0.6% decline
last year. Equipment spending grew a steady 8.6% (5.9% y/y) as investment in
information processing equipment jumped 12.9% (8.6% y/y). Industrial equipment
investment grew 5.6% (7.6% y/y) and intellectual property product investment
improved 4.3% (3.3% y/y). Structures investment fell 5.2% (+3.3% y/y) after a
7.0% rise.
Residential investment fell 6.0% following a 7.3% decline.
Year-to-year growth of 0.9% was down from the peak 13.5% advance during all of
2012.
Government sector spending eased 0.1% (-0.2% y/y), off for
the third straight quarter. State &amp; local government spending fell 0.9%
(-0.3% y/y) following a 1.5% decline. Federal government investment increased
1.2% after a 1.9% Q2 gain, but it was unchanged y/y. Defense spending grew 2.3%
(0.1% y/y) after a 4.7% rise. Nondefense spending eased 0.5% (-0.0% y/y), off
for the third straight quarter.
The GDP price index strengthened 2.2% (1.8% y/y), the
quickest increase in five quarters. The gain was led by a 5.1% increase (4.0%
y/y) in the residential investment price index. The government consumption price
index rose 2.5% both q/q and y/y. The personal consumption price index gained
1.5% (1.5% y/y), up from the 0.3% Q2 increase and the business fixed investment
price index rose 1.3% (1.3% y/y).&nbsp; 
The GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA
database. USNA contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail
in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the
recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus
estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.

 
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="575"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E701/@E701.HTM" ;>Chained
 2009 $ (%, AR</a>)</th>
 <th scope="col" width="148">Q3'17 (Advance Estimate)</th>
 <th scope="col" width="148">Q2'17 </th>
 <th scope="col" width="149">Q1'17</th>
 <th scope="col" width="149">Q3'17 Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" width="149">2016</th>
 <th scope="col" width="149">2015</th>
 <th scope="col" width="149">2014</th>
 </tr>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="575">Gross Domestic Product</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">3.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">3.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="575">&nbsp; Inventory Effect</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">0.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">0.12</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">-1.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">-0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">0.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">-0.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="575">Final Sales</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">2.26</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">2.95</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.2&nbsp;</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="575">&nbsp; Foreign Trade Effect</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">-0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">-0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">-0.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">0.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="575">Domestic Final Sales</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">&nbsp;1.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">3.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey3">
 <td class="firstcol" colSpan="8" width="1616">Demand Components</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="575">&nbsp; Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">2.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">3.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">3.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="575">&nbsp; Business Fixed Investment</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">3.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">6.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">7.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">4.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">-0.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">6.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="575">&nbsp; Residential Investment</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">-6.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">-7.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">11.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">0.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">5.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">10.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">3.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="575">&nbsp; Government Spending</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">-0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">-0.2&nbsp;</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">-0.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">-0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">0.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">-0.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey3">
 <td class="firstcol" colSpan="8" width="1616">Chain-Type Price Index</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="575">&nbsp; GDP&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">2.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">&nbsp;1.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="575">&nbsp;&nbsp; Personal Consumption
 Expenditures</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">1.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">0.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">0.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="575">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Less Food/Energy</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">&nbsp;1.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">0.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.6</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>






</html>

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>
	 
 
 
 

 <a href="/comment/171026h.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171026h.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/171026i.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171026i.png"></a>

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its
index of regional manufacturing sector business activity jumped to 23 in October
following an unrevised uptick to 17 during September. The figure was at the
highest level since March 2011. The ISM-Adjusted index strengthened to 62.2
(NSA), also its highest level since March 2011. During the last ten years, there
has been a 57% correlation between this index and the q/q change in real GDP.

Movement amongst the index components was mixed. Inventory
measures surged. Export orders along with domestic new &amp; unfilled orders
also rose last month. Shipments held steady, while supplier delivery times
backed away from a ten-year high, signifying sharply slower product delivery speeds.

Employment jumped to the highest level since March 2011.
Thirty-four percent of respondents reported increased hiring while 11% reported
a decline in job levels. The employee workweek measure also strengthened.

The index of finished goods prices held steady after last
month's sharp increase. It remained up significantly since the January 2015 low.
The raw materials prices index improved m/m, and also significantly improved
versus the 2015 low.

The overall expectations index increased sharply to the
highest level since March. Expected new orders, shipments, employment, the
employee workweek, exports and production each strengthened. Capital spending
improved modestly.

Expectations for finished goods prices ticked higher m/m and
remained up sharply since the September 2015 low. Expected raw material prices
also gained moderately and remained up compared to 2015.

The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of
total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines.
The survey included 94 responses from plants in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska,
Oklahoma, Wyoming and northern New Mexico. Data for the Kansas City Fed Survey
can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.

<a href="/comment/171026j.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171026j.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/171026z.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171026z.png"></a>

<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" >Kansas City Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (SA)</th>
 <th>Oct</th>
 <th>Sep</th>
 <th>Aug</th>
 <th>Oct '16</th>
 <th>2016</th>
 <th>2015</th>
 <th>2014</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Conditions Versus One Month Ago (% Balance)</td>
 <td >23</td>
 <td >17</td>
 <td >16</td>
 <td >4</td>
 <td >-2</td>
 <td >-6</td>
 <td >6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >ISM-Adjusted Composite Index (NSA)</td>
 <td >62.2</td>
 <td >59.2</td>
 <td >57.9</td>
 <td >51.1</td>
 <td >48.5</td>
 <td >46.8</td>
 <td >52.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; New Orders Volume</td>
 <td >27</td>
 <td >10</td>
 <td >25</td>
 <td >9</td>
 <td >-1</td>
 <td >-8</td>
 <td >7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Number of Employees</td>
 <td >21</td>
 <td >18</td>
 <td >14</td>
 <td >3</td>
 <td >-6</td>
 <td >-10</td>
 <td >5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Production</td>
 <td >20</td>
 <td >22</td>
 <td >22</td>
 <td >12</td>
 <td >1</td>
 <td >-5</td>
 <td >7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Prices Received for Finished Product</td>
 <td >13</td>
 <td >13</td>
 <td >8</td>
 <td >-6</td>
 <td >-7</td>
 <td >-5</td>
 <td >5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Expected Conditions in Six Months</td>
 <td >32</td>
 <td >26</td>
 <td >23</td>
 <td >16</td>
 <td >9</td>
 <td >4</td>
 <td >17</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; New Orders Volume</td>
 <td >45</td>
 <td >27</td>
 <td >39</td>
 <td >17</td>
 <td >19</td>
 <td >11</td>
 <td >26</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Number of Employees</td>
 <td >35</td>
 <td >26</td>
 <td >26</td>
 <td >18</td>
 <td >8</td>
 <td >6</td>
 <td >18</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Production</td>
 <td >47</td>
 <td >38</td>
 <td >38</td>
 <td >30</td>
 <td >20</td>
 <td >11</td>
 <td >28</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Prices Received for Finished Product</td>
 <td >32</td>
 <td >29</td>
 <td >34</td>
 <td >8</td>
 <td >6</td>
 <td >9</td>
 <td >26</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
 </table>
 
</body></html>

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity jumped to 23 in October following an unrevised uptick to 17 during September. The figure was at the highest level since [...]

Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens

Robert Brusca

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>

	 
 
 
 
 

<a href="/comment/171026l.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171026l.png" align="left"></a>
The chart shows that year-on-year growth rates for money and credit flows in the EMU have stabilized at less-than-strong growth rates. Both have steadied over the past year with money growth at a pace of about 5% and credit growth at a pace of 1.5% for private credit. In real terms, credit growth has been flat or even contracting. Money growth in real terms has been at a 3.5% pace. Obviously, the growth in nominal money supply is more than sufficient to support economic growth, but there is a down shift in monetary velocity that is robbing even 5% nominal money growth from creating much stimulus. While some recent ECB comments have looked favorably at some categories of credit that have picked up, in the overall scene the gruel is thin. There is not much here to cheer about and that is the main reason that the ECB is so tentative in legging out of its stimulative policy.

<a href="/comment/171026m.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171026m.png" align="left"></a>
Not much money surprise from global money supplies 
While globally PMI gauges continue to post firm-to-strong readings, key monetary center countries are showing a steady-as-she-goes tact with no pick up for monetary stimulus. Japan is a minor exception here with a very gradual upturn in its money growth rate in train. But in the EMU, M2's growth rate has been flat. In the U.K., M4 is now decelerating relatively sharply. And in the U.S., money growth has been eroding around last year, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's commencement of rate hikes. In fact, the divergence in year-over-year money growth rates is extremely small. Since 1991, there is only one two-month period in early-1998 when money growth rate divergence has come anywhere close to the consensus pace of monetary expansion that exists today in the EMU, the U.S., Japan, and the U.K. Despite this convergence, credit expansion is quite varied in these economies.


At its policy meeting today, the ECB made the following announcements <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2017/html/ecb.mp171026.en.html">(ECB monetary policy decisions here)</a>.
ECB on rates: The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council continues to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.

Nonstandard policy: As regards non-standard monetary policy measures, purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) will continue at the current monthly pace of 60 billion euros until the end of December 2017. From January 2018 the net asset purchases are intended to continue at a monthly pace of 30 billion euros until the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. If the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, the Governing Council stands ready to increase the APP in terms of size and/or duration.

Reinvestment: The Eurosystem will reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time after the end of its net asset purchases, and in any case for as long as necessary. This will contribute both to favourable liquidity conditions and to an appropriate monetary policy stance.

Commentary on ECB action/statements 
The ECB is not making any change or announcing plans to make any changes in interest rates. It will reduce its purchase program amount from January 2018 and will extend purchases at the reduced pace through September (as always depending on events). Repurchase programs will remain in place to maintain the size of the portfolio apart from the phase down activity.

Summing up 
Despite the fact that this is a step to reduce ECB intrusion into the capital markets, German commentators are not happy that the program is going to be kept even though it is being shrunk. However, the ECB has undertaken its decision relative to events conditions in the EMU and should events change these policies could be altered as well. Inflation continues to undershoot the ECB's goal. Of course, there is unhappiness with these programs in Germany, partly for ideological reasons and partly because of German economic circumstances. German inflation is now one of the higher rates among EMU members and the German economy shows evidence of having little slack left with a record low rate of unemployment since German reunification. However, EMU-wide conditions show more resource and labor market slack than what exists in Germany alone.



<img border="0" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171026.png" width="660" height="280">
</html>

The chart shows that year-on-year growth rates for money and credit flows in the EMU have stabilized at less-than-strong growth rates. Both have steadied over the past year with money growth at a pace of about 5% and credit growth at [...]

ECB Meets and Makes Plan to Reduce Purchases; Germans Are Hot But Money and Credit Are Not

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>
	 
 
 
 

 <a href="/comment/171026f.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171026f.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/171026g.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171026g.png"></a>

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that
pending home sales held steady (-3.5% y/y) during September at an index level of
106.0 (2001=100). This followed a revised 2.8% August decline, initially
reported as -2.6%. Sales remained at the lowest level since January 2016 and
were 6.7% below the peak during April 2016.

Changes in pending home sales were mixed m/m across regions of
the country. In the South, the index declined 2.3% (-5.0% y/y), off 10.4% from the
March 2017 peak. The index for the Midwest gained 1.4% (-2.5% y/y), but remained down
8.4% from its March 2016 peak. The index for the West rose 1.9% (-2.9% y/y) and remained
up sharply versus early this month. The index for the Northeast improved 1.2% (-2.4% y/y)
from the lowest level since late-2015.

The pending home sales index measures home sales when the
sales contract is signed, analogous to the new home sales report. In contrast,
existing home sales are recorded when the sale is closed. In developing the
pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract
activity parallels the level of closed existing home sales in the following two
months. The series dates back to 2001, and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database.

<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Pending Home Sales (SA,
 2001=100)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Sep</th>
 <th scope="col" >Aug</th>
 <th scope="col" >Jul</th>
 <th scope="col" >Sep Y/Y %</th>
 <th scope="col" >2016</th>
 <th scope="col" >2015</th>
 <th scope="col" >2014</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Total</td>
 <td >106.0</td>
 <td >106.0</td>
 <td >109.1</td>
 <td >-3.5</td>
 <td >109.8</td>
 <td >108.8</td>
 <td >101.2</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Northeast</td>
 <td >94.5</td>
 <td >93.4</td>
 <td >97.7</td>
 <td >-2.4</td>
 <td >96.3</td>
 <td >90.7</td>
 <td >83.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Midwest</td>
 <td >102.9</td>
 <td >101.5</td>
 <td >103.3</td>
 <td >-2.5</td>
 <td >107.3</td>
 <td >107.1</td>
 <td >100.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >South</td>
 <td >115.9</td>
 <td >118.6</td>
 <td >123.1</td>
 <td >-5.0</td>
 <td >122.8</td>
 <td >123.0</td>
 <td >115.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >West</td>
 <td >102.7</td>
 <td >100.8</td>
 <td >102.3</td>
 <td >-2.9</td>
 <td >102.5</td>
 <td >102.4</td>
 <td >93.1</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
 </table>
 
</body></html>

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales held steady (-3.5% y/y) during September at an index level of 106.0 (2001=100). This followed a revised 2.8% August decline, initially reported as -2.6%. [...]

U.S. Pending Home Sales Hold Steady

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>
	 
 
 
 

<a href="/comment/171026a.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171026a.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/171026b.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171026b.png"></a>

Initial unemployment insurance applications rose to 233,000
(-9.5% y/y) during the week ended October 21 following a decline to 223,000 in
the prior week, revised from 222,000. The figure remained near its 1973 low. The
Labor Department indicated that the number of claims continued to be disrupted
in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by recent hurricanes. Expectations had
been for 235,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week
moving average declined to 239,500, its lowest level since late August.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell to 1.893
million (-8.2% y/y) in the week ended October 14 from 1.896 million the week
before. It was the lowest level since December 1973. The four-week moving
average of claimants fell to 1.904 million.

The insured unemployment rate remained at the&nbsp; record
low of 1.3%.

Insured rates of unemployment varied across the country. For
the week ended October 7, the recently high insured rate of unemployment in
Texas rose to 1.25%. The lowest insured rates of unemployment were in South
Dakota (0.22%), Nebraska (0.41%), Indiana (0.44%), North Carolina (0.48%), Utah
(0.51%) and Florida (0.59%). The highest rates continued to be in Massachusetts
(1.51%), Pennsylvania (1.58%), California (1.71%), Connecticut (1.75%), New
Jersey (1.97%) and Alaska (2.36%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in
Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON.
Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is
from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.

<a href="/comment/171026c.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171026c.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/171026d.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171026d.png"></a>

<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" >Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s)</th>
 <th>10/21/17</th>
 <th>10/14/17</th>
 <th>10/07/17</th>
 <th>Y/Y %</th>
 <th>2016</th>
 <th>2015</th>
 <th>2014</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Initial Claims</td>
 <td >233</td>
 <td >223</td>
 <td >244</td>
 <td >-9.5</td>
 <td >263</td>
 <td >278</td>
 <td >308</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Continuing Claims</td>
 <td >--</td>
 <td >1,893</td>
 <td >1,896</td>
 <td >-8.2</td>
 <td >2,136</td>
 <td >2,267</td>
 <td >2,599</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Insured Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
 <td >--</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >
 1.5 
 (Oct 2016)
 </td>
 <td >1.6</td>
 <td >1.7</td>
 <td >2.0</td>
 </tr>
	 </tbody>
	 </table>
	 
	</body></html>

Initial unemployment insurance applications rose to 233,000 (-9.5% y/y) during the week ended October 21 following a decline to 223,000 in the prior week, revised from 222,000. The figure remained near its 1973 low. The Labor [...]

U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Rise

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>
	 
 
 
 

 <a href="/comment/171025j.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171025j.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/171025k.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171025k.png"></a>

The Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) index of U.S.
house prices rose 6.6% y/y during August, roughly the same as during the last
three months. This compared to a peak 7.1% y/y gain in April. During the last
three months, prices improved at a slower 4.8% annual rate. During August alone,
prices rose 0.7%, the best increase in five months.

The performance of home prices continued to vary greatly
around the country. On the strong side were the Pacific and Mountain regions
where prices rose 9.2% y/y and 8.4% y/y, respectively.

These strong y/y gains were followed by the South Atlantic,
West South Central and East South Central regions where prices rose roughly 6.0%-6.5% y/y.

Slower house price inflation occurred amongst states in
Middle Atlantic, New England and the West North Central regions.

The FHFA house price index is a weighted repeat sales index,
measuring average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An
associated quarterly index also includes refinancings on the same kinds of
properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming,
conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.
Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included. The FHFA
data are available in Haver's USECON database.

<a href="/comment/171025l.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171025l.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/171025m.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171025m.png"></a>

<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" >FHFA U.S. House Price Index, 
 Purchase Only (SA %)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Aug</th>
 <th scope="col" >Jul</th>
 <th scope="col" >Jun</th>
 <th scope="col" >Aug Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" >2016</th>
 <th scope="col" >2015</th>
 <th scope="col" >2014</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Total</td>
 <td >0.7</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >6.6</td>
 <td >6.2</td>
 <td >5.6</td>
 <td >5.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Pacific</td>
 <td >1.4</td>
 <td >-0.5</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >9.2</td>
 <td >8.1</td>
 <td >8.0</td>
 <td >9.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Mountain</td>
 <td >0.5</td>
 <td >0.5</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >8.4</td>
 <td >8.0</td>
 <td >7.9</td>
 <td >7.2</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; South Atlantic</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >0.7</td>
 <td >-0.0</td>
 <td >6.7</td>
 <td >7.2</td>
 <td >6.5</td>
 <td >5.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; West South Central</td>
 <td >0.8</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >-0.4</td>
 <td >6.5</td>
 <td >6.1</td>
 <td >6.4</td>
 <td >5.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; East South Central</td>
 <td >0.6</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >1.1</td>
 <td >6.1</td>
 <td >5.3</td>
 <td >4.8</td>
 <td >3.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; East North Central</td>
 <td >0.6</td>
 <td >0.8</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 <td >5.7</td>
 <td >5.4</td>
 <td >4.5</td>
 <td >4.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; West North Central</td>
 <td >0.5</td>
 <td >-0.3</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >5.7</td>
 <td >5.7</td>
 <td >4.3</td>
 <td >4.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; New England</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 <td >0.6</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >5.3</td>
 <td >4.0</td>
 <td >3.6</td>
 <td >3.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Middle Atlantic</td>
 <td >0.6</td>
 <td >0.7</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >5.0</td>
 <td >3.6</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 <td >2.2</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>
&nbsp;
<table width="100%" class="centered" border="0" cellSpacing="0">
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td>
 Mountain: Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Nevada, Utah,
 Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico. 
 South Atlantic: Delaware, Maryland, D.C., Virginia, West Virginia, North
 Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia and Florida. 
 Pacific: Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington. 
 West South Central: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas and Louisiana. 
 East North Central: Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. 
 East South Central: Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama. 
 New England: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island
 and Connecticut. 
 Middle Atlantic: New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. 
 West North Central: North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska,
 Iowa, Kansas and Missouri.
 </td></tr>
 </tbody>
 </table>
 
</body></html>

The Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) index of U.S. house prices rose 6.6% y/y during August, roughly the same as during the last three months. This compared to a peak 7.1% y/y gain in April. During the last three months, prices [...]

U.S. FHFA House Price Index Remains on Solid Footing

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

Resilient US economy is pushing up longer-term inflation expectations and interest rates

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

Andrew Cates

**Global growth**
Latest flash PMI readings reveal a widening gap in manufacturing performance across major economies. Europe remains mired in contraction, with both the UK and euro area registering PMI figures below the 50 threshold. The UK’s manufacturing sector is particularly under pressure, with the PMI dropping to a new low not seen in over a year—reflecting weak output and mounting challenges from both domestic uncertainty and external shocks, including the disruptive impact of recent US trade actions. While the euro area shows tentative signs of stabilization, with PMI readings inching higher, the recovery remains fragile. In sharp contrast, India’s manufacturing sector continues to outperform, with PMI figures climbing further and signalling resilient industrial momentum amidst global headwinds.

250425Z1.jpg

**US capex intentions**
The latest reading from the US Philly Fed survey suggests a sharp drop in capex intentions among manufacturers in the Philadelphia region, likely reflecting growing uncertainty in the wake of the US administration’s surprise announcement of sweeping tariffs on April 2nd, 2025. This abrupt policy shift has rattled business confidence, echoing past episodes—such as during the 2008 financial crisis and early stages of the pandemic—when capex sentiment similarly plunged. The downturn underscores how policy-induced trade disruptions can swiftly chill investment appetite, particularly in manufacturing sectors exposed to global supply chains.

250425Z2.jpg

**South Korean trade**
The fallout from President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs and the rapid escalation of the trade dispute with China is also now becoming evident in Asia’s trade data. South Korea’s trade figures for the first 20 days of April—often seen as a bellwether for global trade—fell sharply compared to the same period last year. The drop was led by a steep decline in exports to the United States, where tariffs on Chinese goods have surged to as high as 145%, effectively choking bilateral trade flows outside a narrow band of exemptions for strategic goods like electronics and semiconductors. Even these sectors are feeling the strain: South Korea’s semiconductor exports continued to decelerate in April, highlighting the broader collateral damage of deepening trade tensions.

250425Z3.jpg

**Gold prices**
The latest escalation in US-China trade tensions is reverberating far beyond traditional trade channels. Market sentiment has deteriorated noticeably, weighed down by darkening global growth prospects and deepening uncertainty over the future of relations between the world’s two largest economies. The forced decoupling is also reshaping investor behaviour, particularly among Chinese investors, who are increasingly turning to stateless safe-haven assets like gold. This shift is evident in the surge in trading volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the steady climb in global gold prices—buoyed further by a weakening US dollar. The trend points to rising concern among Chinese investors about the geographic concentration of their wealth, as Washington’s increasingly hawkish posture prompts a reassessment of cross-border financial exposure.

250425Z4.jpg

**The US dollar and market volatility** 
Recent sweeping US-led trade actions and a broader turn toward protectionism have sharply eroded the goodwill and soft power long associated with the US and its financial assets. As Washington becomes an increasingly prominent source of global instability, investor confidence in the US dollar as a safe-haven currency has weakened. This loss of faith is reflected across asset markets, with the dollar’s persistent and more entrenched decline against major currencies standing out as a clear signal of a broader reassessment of the US’s global economic role. Elevated market uncertainty reinforces this shift, as underscored by still-high—albeit slightly moderated—readings on the VIX volatility index.

250425Z5.jpg

**Asia’s consumption**
Viewed in a broader context, the recent actions by the US may signal an effort to rebalance its economy—though whether this strategy is well-calibrated remains highly contested. As the issuer of the world’s dominant reserve currency, the US has long been ensnared in the so-called Triffin dilemma: global demand for dollar-denominated assets has sustained persistent trade deficits, gradually undermining the competitiveness of its domestic manufacturing and other tradable sectors. China, by contrast, grapples with the mirror image of this problem. Its growth model remains heavily anchored in manufacturing and external surpluses, and it is now under mounting pressure to pivot toward consumption-led growth—an imperative sharpened by the latest wave of US measures designed to curb Chinese export strength.

250425Z6.jpg

Financial market volatility has remained elevated over the past several days as investors attempted to weigh a modest improvement in sentiment—driven by a potential, if partial, retreat by the US administration from its aggressive tariff stance—against a still-cloudy global outlook. Signals from flash PMI surveys on global growth remain mixed: Europe continues to stagnate, with the UK particularly weak, while India stands out with resilient and rising manufacturing activity (chart 1). In the US, most of the incoming data suggest that business confidence has faltered, with capital expenditure intentions plunging particularly sharply in the wake of the April 2nd tariff announcement (chart 2). The drag from trade tensions is, moreover, becoming more evident: South Korea’s exports have slumped, especially to the US, and even sectors granted exemptions—like semiconductors—are showing signs of strain (chart 3). These pressures are reverberating through financial markets as well, where Chinese investors are shifting into gold as a hedge, fuelling record trading volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and lifting global gold prices (chart 4). Meanwhile, a broadly-based decline in the US dollar and persistently high readings on the VIX index arguably reflect a deeper reassessment of US assets as reliable safe havens amid mounting policy unpredictability (chart 5). Beneath these short-term ripples lie more entrenched structural challenges: the US is seeking to rebalance away from external deficits linked to its reserve currency role, while China is under growing pressure to pivot toward consumption-led growth—an imperative sharpened by American efforts to choke off its export strength (chart 6). In short, the latest softening in US trade rhetoric may offer brief relief, but the underlying economic, geopolitical, and structural crosswinds remain very much in play.

<iframe style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/2IjMlHRbWf4hxzucxtpZJg?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: Dollar Dips and Trade Trips

250425J5.jpg

250425K5.jpg

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its index of manufacturing sector activity declined to -4 during April from -2 in March, indicating a continued decline in factory sector activity. The index has been at zero or below since October 2022. This survey was taken between April 16-21.

Haver Analytics calculates an index based on the Kansas City results which is comparable to the ISM series. This index eased to 50.0 (NSA) from 51.4 in March. It compared to a low of 43.7 last July.

The new orders index of -11 this month compared to -12 in March. Thirty percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher orders while 37% reported a decline. Shipments improved to -2 from -4 and remained above -12 in December. Thirty-three percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher shipments while 28% reported a decline. Employment fell to -11 this month from -4 In March. It has been negative for three straight months. Thirteen percent (NSA) of respondents reported more hiring while 25% reported less. The average workweek index fell to -6 from +6 in March. Supplier delivery times surged to 13 from -1 as a higher 18% (NSA) of respondents reported a quickening of delivery speeds and a lessened 2% indicated a slowdown. Finished goods inventories rose to +5 from -8 in March, indicating the greatest rate of inventory accumulation in four months. Materials inventories weakened to -5 in April from +4 in March.

Inflation indicators strengthened in April. The prices paid index for finished products jumped to 29 from 15 in March. It was the highest reading in almost three years, up from a low of -3 in July 2023. Thirty-four percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices while none paid less. The raw materials index held at 42, up from a low of -1 in October 2023.

The composite index of expectations six months ahead fell to 6 in April from 10 in March. It was below a high of 17 in December. Expectations for future shipments fell to 9 this month, down from 31 in December. Orders expectations also weakened significantly, with the index falling to a minimal 3 from 20 in March. The employment reading of 1 compared to zero in March and 19 in December. Expectations continue to be for higher prices. The expectations index for finished goods prices jumped to 59, a roughly three-year high, from 39 in March. Raw material prices jumped to 71 in April, also a three-year high, from 57 in March.

The latest survey was conducted between April 16-21, 2024 and included 97 responses from factories in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, northern New Mexico, and western Missouri.

The series dates back to July 2001. The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Data for the Kansas City Fed Survey can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

The Fed’s latest **Beige Book** covering regional economic conditions is available [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20250423.pdf).

250425L5.jpg

250425M5.jpg

- Index has moved sideways for over two years.
- Most components remain negative.
- Prices paid reading surges.

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index Declines in April; Expectations Diminish

250424J1.jpg

250424K1.jpg

Existing home sales declined 5.9% (-2.4% y/y) during March to 4.02 million units after rising 4.4% to 4.270 million units in February, revised from 4.26 million, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 4.15 million unit sales. The March sales decline accompanied an easing in the effective 30-year mortgage interest rate to an average 6.65% in March from 6.84% in February. The sales figures are based on closings of sales signed over the past couple of months.

Existing single-family home sales in March declined 6.4% (-2.2% y/y) to 3.64 million units after a 5.7% increase to 3.89 million in February. Sales of condos and co-ops held steady (-5.0% y/y) at 380,000, following a 7.3% February decline.

Sales declined in all regions in March. Sales in the West fell 9.4% (+1.3% y/y) to 770,000 after a 13.3% strengthening in February. Sales in the South declined 5.7% (-4.2% y/y) to 1.81 million after a 4.9% February increase. Sales in the Northeast were off 2.0%, unchanged y/y to 490,000, down for the third straight month. Sales in the Midwest declined 5.0% (-3.1% y/y) to 950,000 units after holding steady in February.

The median price averaged by all existing homes (NSA) rose 1.7% (2.7% y/y) to $403,700 in March after a 0.9% February increase. Prices remained below a high of $426,900 in June 2024. The median price of an existing single-family home rose 1.8% (2.9% y/y) to $408,000 in March and the median price of condos and co-ops increased 2.3% (1.5% y/y) to $363,000 last month. Prices for all homes rose 2.3% (+3.5 y/y) in the Midwest to $302,100. In the South, prices rose 1.2% (0.6% y/y) to $360,400. Prices in the Northeast prices increased 0.8% (7.7% y/y) to $468,000 while in the West prices rose 1.1% (2.6% y/y) to $621,200.

The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) rose 8.1% (19.8% y/y) to 1.33 million units in March following a 4.2% February increase. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) increased to 4.0 months. A high of 4.2 months occurred in September 2024. The record low in supply of 1.6 months occurred in January 2022.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the **WEEKLY** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250424L1.jpg

250424M1.jpg

- Sales are lowest since September.
- Decline extends throughout the country.
- Median sales price increases.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall Sharply in March

250424V4.jpg

250424W4.jpg

New orders for durable manufactured goods jumped 9.2% (11.9% y/y) during March after increasing 0.9% in February, revised from 1.0%. A 2.0% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 27.0% rise (31.2% y/y) in transportation sector orders accounted for the rise, following a 1.2% gain. Excluding the transportation sector, new orders for durable goods held steady (+2.2% y/y), after a 0.7% rise during February.

The March rise in transportation orders was driven by a more-than-doubling of aircraft & parts orders and a 2.3% increase (0.6% y/y) in motor vehicles & parts, coming on the heels of a 5.1% February gain. Primary metals orders rose 0.7% (4.6% y/y) after rising 1.3% while fabricated metals orders increased 0.2% (2.7% y/y) after a 1.2% rise. Machinery orders edged 0.1% higher (1.1% y/y) after increasing 0.8% in February. Elsewhere, orders declined. Computer & electronic product orders fell 1.2% (+2.7% y/y) following a 0.1% easing while electrical equipment, appliance & component orders declined 0.5% (5.2% y/y) after rising 0.6% in February.

Nondefense capital goods orders surged 29.4% (32.3% y/y), while nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft improved 0.1% (1.8% y/y) in March after falling 0.3% in February. Defense capital goods orders fell 9.4% (+3.5% y/y), the sixth straight month of sharp decline.

Factory shipments of durable goods edged 0.1% higher (3.7% y/y) in March following a 1.3% February rise. Transportation sector shipments fell 0.5% (+7.3% y/y) after a 2.4% gain. Shipments excluding the transportation sector improved 0.4% (2.1% y/y) following a 0.8% rise. Machinery shipments gained 0.5% (0.3% y/y) following a 0.9% rise while computer & electronic product shipments eased 0.2% (+4.0% y/y) after rising 1.6%. Shipments of electronics & appliances rose 0.5% (3.7% y/y) after a 0.3% decline. Shipments of all manufactured products eased 0.1% (+2.1% y/y) in March after improving 0.7% in February. Shipments of nondefense capital goods less aircraft rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) after rising 0.7% in February.

Unfilled orders of durable goods rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) during March after a 0.1% February gain. Excluding transportation, backlogs eased 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) after no change in February. Inventories of durable goods edged 0.1% higher (1.0% y/y) following no change during both of the prior two months. Less transportation, durable goods inventories rose 0.2% (0.3% y/y) after holding steady in February. Inventories of all manufactured products rose 0.1% (1.0% y/y) during March for the third month in a row.

Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250424X4.jpg

250424Y4.jpg

- Increase exceeds expectations after moderate February rise.
- Transportation orders account for all of last month’s gain.
- Nondefense capital goods less aircraft orders are minimally higher.

U.S. Advance Durable Goods Orders Surge During March

Winnie Tapasanun

250424A14.jpg

250424B14.jpg

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was at -0.03 in March, down from +0.24 in February (+0.18 initially) and up from -0.26 in January (-0.08 previously), today’s report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago showed, indicating U.S. economic growth decreased for the month. The March CFNAI registered the second negative reading in three months and the eighth negative in 10 months; it was up from -0.20 in March 2024 but below a high of +0.38 in February 2024.

The index's three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which smooths out the m/m volatility in the index, dropped to -0.01 in March after rising to +0.12 in February (+0.15 initially), posting the first negative reading since December; nevertheless, it was an improvement from -0.21 in March 2024. The CFNAI-MA3 is expressed in standard deviation units from zero (with a value of zero defined as trend real GDP growth). Research at the Chicago Fed indicates that an average reading of -0.70 or below is consistent with the economy being in a recession. Thus, the March reading suggests that the U.S. economy is not currently in a recession.

The March negative reading reflected m/m drops in two of the four CFNAI key components and three negative contributions. The contribution of the Production & Income index decreased to -0.09 in March from +0.25 in February; however, it was up from -0.10 in March 2024 and a low of -0.59 in December 2022. The contribution of the Sales, Orders & Inventories index fell to -0.03 in March from +0.01 in February, but it was up from -0.05 in March 2024 and a low of -0.23 in January 2024. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours index contributed -0.01 in March, slightly up from -0.02 in February and improved from -0.04 in March 2024. Meanwhile, the contribution of the Personal Consumption & Housing index to the CFNAI rose to +0.11 in March, the highest reading since January 2023, after rebounding to a neutral value (0.00) in February; it was also up from -0.01 in March 2024.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which measures the breadth of change in the component series and is also a three-month moving average, fell to -0.01 in March after posting +0.12 in February (+0.16 initially) and +0.07 in January (+0.08 previously) and a string of negative readings from March 2023 to December 2024. A reading of zero indicates that all of the indicators are growing at their long-term average. The March reading was up from -0.18 in March 2024 and a low of -0.35 in October 2023; however, having remained below a high of +0.25 in September 2022.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

These figures are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- CFNAI -0.03 in March vs. +0.24 in February.
- Two of four CFNAI components fall m/m and three make negative contributions.
- Personal Consumption & Housing index rises to the highest since Jan. ’23.
- CFNAI-MA3 declines to -0.01, the first negative reading since Dec.; still above -0.70 (recession signal).

Economy in Brief

Jump to:

U.S. GDP Growth Remains Firm in Q3, Despite Storm Effects

U.S. GDP Growth Remains Firm in Q3, Despite Storm Effects

U.S. GDP Growth Remains Firm in Q3, Despite Storm Effects

Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens

ECB Meets and Makes Plan to Reduce Purchases; Germans Are Hot But Money and Credit Are Not

U.S. Pending Home Sales Hold Steady

U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Rise

U.S. FHFA House Price Index Remains on Solid Footing