Economy in Brief

The median reading for the 18 early reporting manufacturing sectors in the table (17 countries plus the euro area) is lower in March at 48.7 from 49.5 in February. Also, in March the diffusion (breadth) of reporters showing month-to-month improvement fell to 33.3% from 66.7% in February and 61.1% in January. However, diffusion over broader periods (3-mo vs. 6-mo; 6-mo vs. 12-mo and 12-mo vs. 12-mo ago) shows diffusion has been steadily at and above the 60% mark (them as point-to-point diffusion changes). And on those timelines, the median reading for the 12-month average is at 49.8, the 6-month average is at 49.3, and the 3-month average is at 48.7. Despite improving diffusion, the median reading has been slipping, but the slippage has been extremely slow. For the United States, France, Germany and the euro area - as a block - these three, blocs of time show diffusion improving in 10 of the twelve segments, the two deteriorating segments are for comparison with a year ago in the U.S. and comparisons between the 6-month average and the 12-month average for France. All four reporters show improvement in three-months compared to six-months, based on average data. By comparison, the four BRIC countries show only two improvements among the 12 possibilities, and only India shows improvement in three-months compared to six-months.

According to breath, this is ongoing improvement. But median data are not confirming the trend. It’s just another example of how small the current changes are and how the data can show small changes over periods as long as a year, when in reality all we are experiencing are gyrations, and little change in an essentially static environment.

The queue standings (rankings) show only seven of 18 reporters at or above the 50% mark; this is the demarcation line for the median on these ranked data. So, over the last four years data, are arrayed with slightly less than half above and slightly more than half below their respective medians. However, the median reading of these rankings makes it clear that data tilt to the weak side at a 45-percentile standing. On data from January 2021 to date, all March 2025 readings are lower on balance (except India-and that exception is on a small margin, +0.3 points).

In that table, I look at various groups: BRICS, Asia, and a group of the more advanced countries (U.S., U.K., EMU, Canada & Japan); each of them shows very little movement.

However, we have a world with a great deal of change in train, especially changes thrust on Europe by changing U.S. policy to put more of Europe’s own security provision in Europe’s on hands. This is going to ramp up spending and should cause economies to heat up in the year ahead or more. Such a change could spur PMI values, economic growth, stimulate the inflation environment, and alter monetary policy itself. There is change in progress that we can see coming but has not been reflected in this month’s report.

The light vehicle market continued to improve last month, with sales rising to the highest level in four years. U.S. light vehicle sales rose 10.4% (11.8% y/y) to 17.76 million units (SAAR) in March after rising 3.8% to 16.09 million in February. The rise in March vehicle sales accompanied a 1.8% y/y rise in real disposable income through February, which compared to 2.0% growth in 2024.

Sales improvement was broad-based last month. Light truck sales rose 12.1% (13.2% y/y) during March to 14.46 million units (SAAR), after increasing 3.3% in February. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks surged 12.4% (13.1% y/y) to 11.05 million units, after rising 3.3% in February. Sales of imported light trucks jumped 10.7% (13.0% y/y) to 3.40 million units, following February’s 3.4% rise.

Trucks’ 81.4% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 80.2% in February and set a new record. The share was 80.3% during all of 2024 and 53.3% ten years earlier.

Auto sales also rose last month, by 3.8% (8.2% y/y) to 3.31 million units (SAAR) following a 6.0% February increase. Sales of cars moved to the highest level since July 2021. Purchases of domestically-produced cars rose 3.4% (12.3% y/y) last month to 2.46 million units, after rising 9.2% in February. Sales of imported autos gained 4.9% (-7.6% y/y) to 0.85 million units, following a 2.4% February decrease.

Imports' share of the U.S. light vehicle market eased to 23.9% in March from 24.1% in February. It compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% before it reached a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market rose to 25.7% last month from 25.4% in February. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market eased to 23.5% in March after holding at 23.8% in February.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the INDUSTRY database.