U.S. import prices rose 0.7% in August, the first monthly increase since March, driven by a 4.1% surge in petroleum. July's total decreased 0.7%, revised from -0.6% reported initially. The August total was actually somewhat lower than [...]
Introducing
Carol Stone, CBE
in:Our Authors
Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
Publications by Carol Stone, CBE
Global| Sep 12 2012U.S. Import Prices Turn Higher on Petroleum
- Global| Sep 10 2012
Consumer Credit Falls $3.3B in July
Consumer credit declined in July, by $3.3B, seasonally adjusted, the first outright decline since August 2011. However, revisions to recent months raised their amounts, June from $6.5B reported previously to $11.8B in today's data, [...]
- Global| Jun 28 2012
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Recovers in Late June
Consumer sentiment picked up in late June from the early month reading of the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment, putting the month's overall index at 84.1, just marginally lower than May's firm 84.5 figure. June's [...]
- Global| Jun 27 2012
U.S. Personal Income & Spending Turn Positive in May; Saving Rate Higher
Personal income regained its footing in May with a 0.5% gain; April's move, originally reported as down very marginally, was revised to a 0.1% rise. Year-on-year, income was up 3.3%, compared to the 2.8% reported last month for April. [...]
- Global| Jun 20 2012
U.S. Existing Home Sales and Prices Were Strong in May
Existing home sales surged 4.2% in May, producing a substantial 12.9% gain y/y to a 5.180M annual rate, according to data compiled by the National Association of Realtors. This was the largest number of sales since the 5.440M of [...]
- Global| Jun 15 2012
Foreign Investors Purchase Modest Amounts of U.S. Debt, Equity; China Liquidates, But Latin America Picks Up
Foreign investors purchased $26.1 billion worth of U.S. long-term debt and equity securities in April, according the U.S. Treasury's International Capital ("TIC") data. This followed $21.9 billion worth in March, a similar amount in [...]
- Global| Jun 08 2012
U.S. Flow-of-Funds Give Mixed View of Credit Recovery
The Federal Reserve flow-of-funds data for Q1 2012, published yesterday, continue to show the uneven expansion of credit markets which has characterized this entire post-recession period. Borrowing did pick up in Q1 to $1.558 trillion [...]
- Global| Jun 08 2012
U.S. Flow-of-Funds Give Mixed View of Credit Recovery
Flow of Funds
The Federal Reserve flow-of-funds data for Q1 2012, published yesterday, continue to show the uneven expansion of credit markets which has characterized this entire post-recession period. Borrowing did pick up in Q1 to $1.558 trillion (SAAR) from $1.249 trillion in Q4 2011, which in turn was revised up from $1.132 trillion reported in March. The Q1 figure equals just over 10% of GDP, up from 8.2% in Q4. This is the strongest relative performance since late 2008, as the financial collapse was reaching a climax. But it remains well below a long-term average of almost 19%. In fact, before the implosion of 2008-10, when there were net paydowns of debt in this country, credit market net borrowing had dipped below 10% of GDP in only 15 quarters since 1962 (50 years ago!) and only three of those occurred after 1975. Total credit market debt outstanding stood a mere 1.8% above a year ago on March 31, and it has not shown a marked acceleration since it began to grow again at the end of 2010.
In this flow-of-funds release, the Federal Reserve revised its treatment of the banking sector. Since banks and saving institutions now both file the same reporting forms to their regulators, the Fed combined their accounts into "U.S.-Chartered Depository Institutions". Similarly, parent holding companies are now known simply as "holding companies", rather than "bank holding companies" and "savings institution holding companies". Among lending categories, "bank loans n.e.c." is now called "depository institution loans n.e.c.", and it now includes savings institution and credit union loans to business. Interbank transactions have also been reorganized. For the Fed's description of these and other revisions, see their announcement here.
These changes drew our attention to the pattern of sectors providing credit. The new combined depository sector provided $239 billion in funding during Q1, which is actually a slowdown from their provisions in the prior two quarters, and was mixed by type. General lending, mostly to business, amounted to $284 billion, the largest amount since early 2008. Net liquidation of mortgages resumed after a modest increase in Q4, although the acquisition of agency mortgage securities, both regular mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), firmed to $277 billion, their largest quarterly amount since mid-2004. The depositories were still liquidating private-label MBS and CMOs. So the provision of housing credit remains a mixed bag, with these lenders clearly risk averse in taking it on.
One other interesting feature among the mix of lenders in Q1 was a huge increase in corporate bond buying by mutual funds. In the table below, credit from "other" financial sector lenders is see at $1.53 trillion, that line-item's largest contribution since Q1 2008, early in the financial crisis. This latest period saw $900 billion from regular, open-end mutual funds; they also bought agency securities, agency MBS and corporate bonds, this last in substantial size. Source data from the Investment Company Institute suggest that bond funds and hybrid funds increased their assets markedly during the quarter.
The flow of funds data are contained in Haver's FFUNDS database. Archived series from prior to the revisions are available through Haver's HaverSelect service. The Investment Company Institute information is in the ICI database. All the dollar amounts mentioned here are seasonally adjusted annual rates.
Flow of Funds (SAAR, Bil.$) Year Q1'12 Q4'11 Q3'11 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Total Credit Market Borrowing/Lending 1558 1249 1044 846 590 -534 2579 4512 Funds Provided by Nonfinancial Sectors Households -437 454 -438 -276 240 -129 -9 520 Other Domestic Nonfinancial Sectors 8 -151 -108 -105 134 260 -94 16 Rest of the World 128 -28 700 201 519 144 358 944 Funds Provided by Financial Sectors Monetary Authority 87 -245 -134 176 271 1002 245 -38 U.S.-Chartered Depository Institutions 239 628 369 127 -176 -337 242 585 All Other Financial Sectors 1533 591 654 523 -398 -1474 1836 2485 - Global| Jun 01 2012
U.S. Personal Income Growth Eases, While PCE Picks Up
Personal income increased 0.2% (2.8% y/y) in April after 0.4% March, which was unrevised from the initial report last month and modestly weaker than consensus expectations for 0.3%. The April rise included a 0.2% rise (3.2% y/y) in [...]
- Global| May 25 2012
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Regains Pre-Recession Levels
The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for rose further in its Final May reading to 79.3 (Q1 1966 = 100) from 77.8 in mid-month and 76.4 in April. This put it at the highest level since October 2007, before the [...]
- Global| May 24 2012
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Appear in Holding Pattern
New orders for durable goods edged up 0.2% in April after a revised decrease of 3.7% in March (originally reported at 4.2%).
- Global| May 24 2012
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Basically Steady
Initial unemployment insurance claims totaled 370,000 in the week of May 19; those in the week of May 12 were revised up 2,000 to 372,000. Consensus expectations for the later period were for 367,000 filings. The four-week moving [...]
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