The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity for December indicate increased divergence in activity across the nation. Over the last 12 months, 27 states report increases in their indexes in the 2 to [...]
- Global| Jan 29 2020
State Coincident Indexes
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- Global| Jan 24 2020
State Labor Markets in December
Only three states were considered to have statistically significant changes (all increases) in payroll employment in November: Texas, Washington, and Arkansas. 32 states (including here Washington DC) had nonsignificant point [...]
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- Global| Jan 22 2020
Monetary Policy & Business Cycle Scripts Have Changed: Fed Policy Stimulates Finance Over Spending
The monetary policy guide has fundamentally changed and so to has the business cycle. Changes in monetary policies and practices nowadays stimulate finance over spending. The power and risks of equity markets should not be overlooked [...]
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- Global| Jan 13 2020
December's Slower Wage Growth Reflects Drop in Incentive/Commission Income---Labor Markets Are Still Tight
The abrupt drop in average hourly earnings in December to a 3% gain, 50 basis points below the run-rate of the past year, is as much of a surprise as it is a puzzle. How can the wage data show a one-month plunge in earnings growth [...]
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- Global| Jan 10 2020
State GDP
The state GDP figures for Q3 were heavily influenced by gains in refining and other industries using petroleum feedstocks. Texas was the fastest-growing state, with its real output up at 4 percent annual rate, with its growth led by [...]
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- Global| Jan 09 2020
The "Real" Phillips Curve Is Not Flat
Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has stated that the relationship between unemployment and inflation “was a strong one 50 years ago…. and has gone away". This relationship, called the Phillips Curve, now has disappeared [...]
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- Global| Jan 03 2020
Two Equity Market Booms, Two Policy Paths
In the past two decades there have been two fundamentally different types of equity market booms that resulted in the market valuation of US companies relative to Nominal GDP soaring to equivalent record highs. Yet, during the dot.com [...]
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- Global| Dec 27 2019
State Coincident Indexes
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity for November continue to show some divergence in activity across the nation. Over the last 12 months, only 27 states report increases in their index in the [...]
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