- Construction spending down 0.2% m/m in Jan., the first fall since Dec. ’22; +11.7% y/y, the lowest since Sept. ’23.
- Residential private construction up 0.2% m/m, led by a 0.6% rise in single-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction dips 0.1% m/m following six straight monthly rises.
- Public sector construction down 0.9% m/m, the first drop since Aug. ’22, led by a 1.0% fall in nonresidential public construction.
USA| Mar 01 2024U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Eases in January
Global| Mar 01 2024MFG PMIs Largely Improve in February
The S&P Global manufacturing PMIs are showing more improvement than deterioration in February. 11 countries in the table show improvement month-to-month while 6 show deterioration. The median reading in February is a PMI value of 50 which is right on the cusp of showing declines in manufacturing. That reading compares to readings of 49 over three months, and six months vs. a reading of 48.8 over 12 months.
In February, 61.1% of the respondents show improvement month-to-month. Over three months, 77.8% show improvement compared to six-months; over six months 72.2% show improvement compared to 12-months; over 12 months 50% show improvement compared to one-year ago. What we see from these metrics is that manufacturing has been on an improving path even though the three-, six-, and 12-month readings linger below the neutral 50% mark.
The queue standings position the February reading in each case among the last four years of monthly observations for each reporting unit. Mexico and Russia show the highest percentile standings on the data they report; Russia is showing a standing in its 98th percentile. Mexico reports a 94th percentile standing. The weakest standings are in Japan that has a 10-percentile standing, China that has a 13.3 percentile standing, and Germany that has a 14-percentile standing. The median standing among all the countries in the table is at the 47th percentile mark which is below ‘50’ telling us that the median reading for this cross section of countries a generally a reading below the individual reporters’ medians over the last four years.
In terms of the averages for various groupings of countries, the U.S., U.K., European Monetary Union, Canada, and Japan show general improvements. The average PMI manufacturing values from a year ago through February show that three-month, six-month, and 12-month values don't show much change, but there is a more significant improvement in February. The BRIC countries also show stasis for the most part for three-, six-, and 12-months, a little more significant move up in February. The Asian average follows that same pattern. In terms of the percentile standings, the more highly developed countries have the lower standing. The U.S., U.K., EMU, Canada, and Japan group is the weakest; Asia occupies a middle ground on the average ranking, and the BRIC countries have the highest percentile queue standings at about the 65th percentile.
Global| Feb 29 2024Charts of the Week: When the Chips Are Up
Prospects for a swift pivot toward looser monetary policy in the US and Europe have been further diminished by some stronger-than-expected inflation data in recent days. Equity market sentiment in most major economies, however, has remained fairly resilient, buoyed by a positive stream of corporate earnings news. In our charts this week and following the release of this week’s surveys we look at the gulf that still exists between consumer confidence in the United States compared with Europe (chart 1). Since an outperforming US economy relative to Europe could be one reason for that confidence disparity, we focus next on technology matters and specifically on the rapid growth of US investment in software over the past several years (chart 2). We then stay with technology and look at the improving demand and supply balance in the semiconductor sector that’s suggested by inventory levels in several Asian economies (chart 3). Next, we turn to Europe with some perspective on the outperformance of the Italian bond market that’s unfolded in recent months (chart 4). We then stay with Europe by offering some colour on the weakness of this week’s money supply data from the euro area (chart 5). Then, and finally, we throw some light on post-pandemic consumer spending patterns in the UK (chart 6).
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
- Nominal spending improves but eases in real terms.
- Disposable income moves up steadily.
- PCE price index strengthens.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Feb 29 2024U.S. Pending Home Sales Fall Sharply in January
- Decline reverses December increase.
- Falloff is centered in Midwest & South.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Feb 29 2024Chicago Business Barometer Falls Again in February
- The headline index fell to 44.0, pointing to on-going decline in activity.
- The employment and production subindexes declined 6.0 points.
- Input prices continued to rise at a slow pace.
- The index has not been positive since September 2022
- However, the negative reading for February was smaller than in January.
- Shipments and employment picked up, but orders and production were lackluster.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
- Initial claims up 13,000; maintain tight range
- Continuing claims also up moderately; 4-week average rises to 26-month high.
- Insured unemployment rate maintains tight 1.2%-1.3% range.
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