- Sales decline to four-month low.
- Home prices strengthen to record level.
- Sales fall or hold steady throughout the country.
USA| Jun 21 2024U.S. Existing Home Sales Decline While Prices Rise in May
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- The May LEI decline led by a decrease in new orders, weak consumer sentiment on future business conditions, and lower building permits.
- Coincident Economic Index up for the fourth straight month.
- Lagging Economic Index down for the first time since December.
Global| Jun 21 2024PMI Services and Manufacturing Backtrack Broadly in June
The flash readings for June in the S&P Global PMI indexes show widespread weakness, but the U.S. dominates whatever month-to-month improvement there is, showing gains in the composite, manufacturing, and services month-to month. Among other June entries in the table, only the U.K. has a month-to-month gain and that's for its manufacturing sector.
This is a clear switch from May when only eight sectors showed weakness out of the 21 sector entries for these seven reporting units each reporting 3 sectors. April also showed strength with only 5 of 21 sectors showing weakness and three of those being in the U.S.
Broader trends Average data, which are calculated only on the hard data which means they're updated through May, show the three-month averages weaker than the six-month averages. Only three sectors weaken over three months; those are the service sectors for the U.S. and for Japan plus a weaker manufacturing sector in Germany. Over six months compared to 12 months, there are six weaker sectors. All three sectors in Australia are weaker; and in Japan, the composite and the manufacturing sectors are weaker; in the U.S., the services sector is weaker. However, over a year compared to the year previous, there are only 5 sectors that are stronger. The chart at the top gives you a sense of the roller coaster ride that the PMIs have been through for services and manufacturing in the European Monetary Area.
Trend shift? The manufacturing data in the chart has been on a plateau for about 5 months while the services sector in the monetary union has only just begun to turn lower in the past two months. The question is whether there is some sort of new trend in place and whether the upswing is over. It's too soon to know this, but it's not too soon to wonder about it.
Global| Jun 20 2024Charts of the Week: Beyond the Headlines
Soft landing narratives have remained in vogue in financial markets in recent weeks, partly due to weaker-than-expected US inflation data (see chart 1). In contrast, this week’s stronger-than-expected UK service sector CPI inflation data unsettled investors and probably played a role in the Bank of England's decision to keep interest rates unchanged (chart 2). European investors have also been unsettled by the political instability in France and its broader regional implications (chart 3). Meanwhile, property market instability continues to impact China’s economy, as evidenced by this week’s slew of economic data (chart 4). On a more positive note, Japan's latest trade data indicated healthier economic conditions, partly due to firmer export growth (chart 5). That improvement can be attributed, in part, to sustained demand for semiconductors, which also acts as a reminder that soft landing narratives have additionally been bolstered by the productivity potential of Artificial Intelligence over the past few months (chart 6).
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
- Single-family & multi-family starts weaken.
- Starts fall throughout the country, except the West.
- Building permits decline to four-year low.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 20 2024U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Falls to a Five-Month Low in June
- Despite the June drop, Current General Activity Index (1.3) remains in positive territory, suggesting expansion.
- Key subindexes remain negative: Shipments (-7.2), New Orders (-2.2), and Employment (-2.5).
- Inflation indicators suggest widespread price increases.
- Future General Activity Index (13.8) remains in positive territory, albeit w/ less widespread expectations for overall future growth.
USA| Jun 20 2024U.S. Current Account Deficit Unexpectedly Deepens in Q1
- Deficit on goods increases while the services surplus surges.
- Primary income surplus continues to shrink.
- Net direct & portfolio investment grow.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 20 2024U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims Down 5,000 in June 15 Week
- Initial claims slightly higher than expected.
- Continuing claims increase moderately.
- Insured unemployment rate still 1.2%, same since March 2023.
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