On August 27, Fed Chairman Powell gave a speech entitled "New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review". The main "challenges" seemed to be a very low "neutral" or equilibrium interest rate structure and very low rates [...]
Introducing
Paul L. Kasriel
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Mr. Kasriel is founder of Econtrarian, LLC, an economic-analysis consulting firm. Paul’s economic commentaries can be read on his blog, The Econtrarian. After 25 years of employment at The Northern Trust Company of Chicago, Paul retired from the chief economist position at the end of April 2012. Prior to joining The Northern Trust Company in August 1986, Paul was on the official staff of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in the economic research department. Paul is a recipient of the annual Lawrence R. Klein award for the most accurate economic forecast over a four-year period among the approximately 50 participants in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators forecast survey. In January 2009, both The Wall Street Journal and Forbes cited Paul as one of the few economists who identified early on the formation of the housing bubble and the economic and financial market havoc that would ensue after the bubble inevitably burst. Under Paul’s leadership, The Northern Trust’s economic website was ranked in the top ten “most interesting” by The Wall Street Journal. Paul is the co-author of a book entitled Seven Indicators That Move Markets (McGraw-Hill, 2002). Paul resides on the beautiful peninsula of Door County, Wisconsin where he sails his salty 1967 Pearson Commander 26, sings in a community choir and struggles to learn how to play the bass guitar (actually the bass ukulele). Paul can be contacted by email at econtrarian@gmail.com or by telephone at 1-920-559-0375.
Publications by Paul L. Kasriel
- Global| Oct 26 2020
Why Can't the Fed Raise the Inflation Rate? Why Would It Want To?
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- Global| Oct 13 2020
Taxpayers Could Have Been Saved $674 Billion and Had the Covid Spread Curbed
I'm from the late Senator Dirksen school of fiscal prudence, i.e., "[a] billion [dollars] here and a billion [dollars] there and pretty soon you're talking real money". The way I figure it, the taxpayers of America, perhaps more [...]
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- Global| Sep 28 2020
Households Saving for a Rainier Day and Corporations Making Hay while the Sun Shines
The Fed released its Q2:2020 Financial Accounts (formerly known as the Flow of Funds) data on September 21. This quarter's data were (if you took high school Latin) more interesting than usual given what households did with the money [...]
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- Global| Aug 19 2020
Ramblings of a Congenital Pessimist
What follows are my comments on various US economic data that have been released recently. Let's start with July 2020 nominal retail sales. As shown in Chart 1, the level of July nominal retail sales exceeded its pre-COVID level set [...]
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Back when I was employed at the Chicago Fed, some of us from the economic research department and the legal department would gather in the cafeteria for afternoon coffee (not to mention morning coffee and lunch). I remember one [...]
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- Global| May 26 2020
Our Exploding National Debt – How Will It Be Managed Post-Covid?
In the 12 months ended April 2020, the cumulative federal budget deficit reached $1.935 trillion, up from $1.0 trillion in the 12 months ended March 2020. The federal debt held by the public at the end of April 2020 stood at $19.054 [...]
- Global| May 26 2020
Our Exploding National Debt – How Will It Be Managed Post-Covid?
In the 12 months ended April 2020, the cumulative federal budget deficit reached $1.935 trillion, up from $1.0 trillion in the 12 months ended March 2020. The federal debt held by the public at the end of April 2020 stood at $19.054 [...]
- Global| May 26 2020
Our Exploding National Debt – How Will It Be Managed Post-Covid?
In the 12 months ended April 2020, the cumulative federal budget deficit reached $1.935 trillion, up from $1.0 trillion in the 12 months ended March 2020. The federal debt held by the public at the end of April 2020 stood at $19.054 [...]
- Global| Apr 30 2020
The Explosion of the Fed's and Banks' Balance Sheets: Not Inflationary, Yet
In the eight weeks ended April 22, 2020, total assets on the books of the Fed increased by $2.4 trillion, the largest eight-week increase in Fed assets in the history of the institution. In the seven weeks ended April 15, 2020, loans [...]
- Global| Apr 13 2020
Does Encouraging OPEC to Cut Production Help Keep America Great?
On April 12, 2020, OPEC, Russia, the U.S. and some other oil-producing nations reached an agreement to cut the global production of crude petroleum, which, according to Reuters, reduce the global crude supply by 20%. Immediately after [...]
- Global| Mar 05 2020
COVID-19 – The Fed Can't Cure What Ails You
The global spread of COVID-19 represents a classic example of a supply shock. In this case, the factor of production affected is labor. Despite the advance of artificial intelligence, global production of goods and services still [...]
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- Global| Feb 03 2020
Greatest Economic Performance Ever? I Report, You Decide
The charts below show the behavior of some important measures of economic performance. Generally, the time period shown in the charts starts in the early 1950s and runs through the end of 2019. In some cases, the data are not [...]
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