Tom Moeller

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The Housing Market Index compiled by the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo rose 4.9% (7.5% y/y) in October to 43 after rising 5.1% in September. It remained below the break-even point of 50 where it’s been for the last six months. The index stands below a July 2023 high of 56 and a November 2020 peak of 90.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose to 6.44% last week compared to 6.32% in the prior week. It has averaged 6.29% this month, down from a high of 7.79% in the last week of October 2023, according to Freddie Mac.

The single-family sales measure rose 4.4% (2.2% y/y) to 47 this month from 45 in September. It was the highest reading since June. The prospective sales index in six months rose 7.5% (29.5% y/y) to 57 from 53 in September. It was the highest level in six months. The traffic of prospective buyers’ index rose 7.4% (11.5% y/y) to 29 in October. It was the highest level since May.

Housing performance across the country was mixed in October. The Northeast index fell 5.5% (+13.0% y/y) to 52 from 55. The index for the Midwest improved 4.9% (16.2% y/y) to 43 from 41 in September. In the South, the index improved 7.5% (unchanged y/y) to 43, but remained below the recent high of high of 52 in March. The index in the West increased 7.3% (22.2% y/y) to 44 from 41 in September. The index hit a low of 28 in November of last year.

The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions which ask builders to rate sales and sales expectations as "good," "fair" or "poor" and traffic as "very high," "average" or "very low." The figures are diffusion indexes with values over 50 indicating a predominance of "good"/"very high" readings. In constructing the composite index, the weights assigned to the individual index components are: 0.5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, 0.1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months, and 0.2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The regional indexes run back to December 2004.

These data are included in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

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- Overall index stands at highest level in four months.
- Component performance is mixed.
- Regional indexes largely improve.

U.S. Home Builders Index Increases in October

Sandy Batten

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The Current General Activity Diffusion Index rose to 10.3 in October from 1.7 in September, according to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, indicating further improvement in activity in the third Federal Reserve District this month. A reading of 3.0 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Twenty-four percent of the firms reported increases in general activity in October (up from 21.9% in September) while 14.0% reported decreases (down from 20.2% in September). Responses to this month's survey were collected from October 7 to October 14.

The headline index reflects the answer to a single question about business conditions. Haver Analytics calculates an ISM-adjusted current activity diffusion index from five key components using the methodology along the lines of the national ISM index. The index rebounded to 52.7 in October from 49.3 in September, indicated that the rise in activity was relatively broad based.

The new orders index rebounded to 14.2 in October after having fallen to -1.5 in September with 30.5% of respondents reporting an increase in orders while only 16.3% reported a decline, the lowest since August 2023. Similarly, the shipments index bounced back to 7.4 in October from -14.3 in September. Twenty-seven percent of respondents reported an increase in shipments while 19.8% reported a decline. Unfilled orders rose but remained negative for the second consecutive month at -1.5. Delivery times lengthened to 10.2 in October from -0.7 in September. Inventory investment continued but the pace slowed with the index falling to 0.5 in October from 5.0 in September.

Employment conditions weakened in October with the number of employees’ index falling to -2.2 from 10.7 in September. Eleven percent of respondents reported an increase in employment, the same as last month, while 12.9% reported a decline versus 0% last month. The average workweek index rose slightly but remained decidedly negative at -11.8.

Both price indexes declined in October but remained positive. The prices paid index declined from 34.0 to 29.7. Nearly 35% of the firms reported increases in input prices, while 5.0% reported decreases; 60.0% of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index decreased 7 points to 17.9. Almost 22 of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods, 3.8% reported decreases, and 71.9% reported no change.

The future activity index jumped up to 36.7 this month, its highest reading in three months, from 15.8 in September. Apart from inventories, all other components posted solid increases, led by new orders and shipment.

In this month’s special question, manufacturers were asked about their plans for different categories of capital expenditures next year. Almost 52% of the firms expect to increase total capital spending, compared with 21% that expect to decrease total spending; 27% expect total spending to stay the same. When this question was asked last year, the share of firms expecting to decrease spending slightly exceeded the share of firms expecting to increase spending (30% versus 24%). On balance, the firms expect higher capital expenditures next year for computer and related hardware, software, noncomputer equipment, and energy-saving investments, and lower expenditures on structure and other investments.

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS), conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants. The diffusion indexes in the MBOS represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. The series from the survey dating back to May 1968 can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- The headline index rose more than expected to 10.3 from 1.7.
- The increase was rather widespread with the ISM-adjusted index rising to 52.7.
- New orders and shipments components indexes rebound from negative readings in September to positive in October.
- The employment component index fell back into negative territory in October after a solid increase in September.
- Capital spending expectations rise markedly.

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Rises Further in October

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Total business inventories rose 0.3% m/m (2.4% y/y) in August, the same monthly increase as in June and July. A 0.3% increase had been expected in the Informa Global Markets Survey.

Retail inventories rose 0.6% m/m (6.4% y/y) in August, slightly slower than the 0.8% monthly gain in July. Increased auto inventories continued to be the major contributor to the rise in overall inventories in August. While the 0.8% m/m increase in auto inventories was the lowest monthly increase in six months, it accounted for 44% of the monthly increase in total inventories. General merchandise inventories were up 1.3% m/m, their largest monthly gain since December 2023. Food and beverage store inventories rose 1.2% m/m in August, their largest monthly gain since October 2022. By contrast, furniture inventories fell 0.5% m/m, their fourth consecutive monthly decline.

Manufacturing inventories edged up 0.1% m/m (0.6% y/y) in August after having been unchanged in July. Wholesale inventories also increased 0.1% m/m (0.6% y/y) in August versus a 0.2% monthly gain in July.

Total business sales fell 0.2% m/m (+1.3% y/y) in August after a 1.1% m/m jump in July. Factory sales fell 0.5% (+1.0% y/y); wholesale sales slipped 0.1% m/m (+1.1% y/y). Retail sales were essentially unchanged (+1.9% y/y) with weakness widespread across major sectors.

With sales falling and inventories rising in August, the inventory/sales (I/S) ratio edged up to 1.38 from 1.37 in July, It has been either 1.37 or 1.38 in each of the past nine months. The manufacturing I/S ratio inched up to 1.46 in August from 1.45. The wholesale I/S was unchanged at 1.35. And the retail I/S increased to 1.33 from 1.32 in July.

The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Informa Global Markets forecast is in the **MMSAMER** database.

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- Inventories increased 0.3%, led by retailers.
- Sales declined, led by factory sales.
- Inventory/sales ratio stuck in a range.

U.S. Business Inventories Rose While Sales Fell in August

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped by 19,000 to 241,000 seasonally adjusted in the week ended October 12, from 260,000 in the previous week, revised up 2,000 from the initially reported 258,000 level. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 245,000 in the October 12 week. Press reports indicate that the jump in the October 5 week was related to the impact of Hurricane Helene. The effects of both Hurricane Helene and Milton will likely keep weekly claims data volatile in the coming weeks. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 236,250 in the week ended October 12, up from 231,500 the week before.

In the week ended October 5, the total number unemployment benefit recipients – also known as insured unemployment – was 1.867 million, up 9,000 from 1.858 million in the week of September 28, revised down from 1.861 million. The four-week moving average of insured unemployment was 1.843 million, up from 1.831 million in the prior week.

Also, in the week ended October 5, the insured unemployment rate was still 1.2%. This is the number of beneficiaries as a percent of covered employment; the rate has been at 1.2% continuously since March 11, 2023.

Economic conditions vary widely across states and territories. In the week ended September 28, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.18%), California (2.01%), Puerto Rico (1.81%), Rhode Island (1.78%) and Washington (1.76%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.23%), North Dakota (0.34%), Florida, Virginia and North Carolina (each 0.40%), and Alabama, Kansas and Nebraska (each 0.43%). Rates in other notable states include New York (1.47%), Illinois (1.42%), Pennsylvania (1.34%) and Texas (1.05%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Continuing claims up 9,000 in the October 5 week, after the 39,000 jump in September 28 week.
- Insured unemployment rate holds at 1.2%.

U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims Dropped 19,000 in Week Ended October 12

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Pricing pressure from the foreign trade sector eased last month. Import prices weakened 0.4% (-0.1% y/y) in September following a 0.2% August decline, revised from -0.3%. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.3% decline. Export prices declined 0.7% (-2.1% y/y) last month after falling 0.9% in August, revised from -0.7%. The Action Economic Forecast Survey expected a 0.6% drop.

The monthly decline in import prices reflected a 7.0% drop (-17.3% y/y) in fuels & lubricants prices which came after a 2.9% decline in August. Nonfuel prices, however, edged 0.1% higher for the third straight month. Their y/y increase has risen to 1.8%, up from -1.9% in April of 2023. Auto import prices improved 0.2% (2.7% y/y), the same as in August. Nonauto consumer goods prices increased 0.2% (0.8% y/y). The gain followed three straight monthly declines. Capital goods prices held steady (+0.4% y/y) after a 0.2% increase. Weakening, however, were foods, feeds & beverage prices which declined 1.5% (+3.8% y/y) after rising 0.2% in August.

The weakening in export prices in September reflected a 0.9% drop (-1.8% y/y) in nonagricultural export prices which was the fourth decline in the last five months. A 0.6% rise (-5.3% y/y) in agricultural product prices offset some of this weakness. Leading the decline, industrial supplies & materials prices fell 2.4% (-6.3% y/y) after a 1.6% August drop. Motor vehicle & parts prices edged 0.1% lower (+2.9% y/y) and reversed the 0.1% rise in August. Offsetting these declines, nonauto consumer goods prices increased 0.3% (0.9% y/y) following a 0.1% improvement in August. Capital goods prices rose 0.2% (1.6% y/y) after a 0.2% dip.

Each of these monthly trade price numbers are not seasonally adjusted. The import and export price series can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPN**A database.

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- Import price decline led by oil; elsewhere most prices firm.
- Export price weakness led by costs of industrial supplies.

U.S. Import and Export Prices Decline in September

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades rose to $3.29 per gallon (-11.1% y/y) in the week ended October 14 after falling to $3.26 per gallon in the prior week. Prices remain below the late-April high of $3.79 per gallon, well under their all-time high of $5.11 in the week ended June 13, 2022. Retail prices for on-highway diesel fuel increased to $3.63 per gallon (-18.3% y/y) from $3.58 per gallon. These prices reached a high of $4.63 per gallon in the third week of September of last year.	

The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil strengthened to $75.07 per barrel (-12.0% y/y) in the week ended October 11 after rising to $71.47 per barrel in the prior week. It was the highest price in six weeks but they remained lower than the $91.45 high in the last week of September 2023. Yesterday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to $70.58 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil increased to $78.51 per barrel (-10.5% y/y) in the week ended October 11 after rising to $75.16 in the prior week. The price of Brent has recently ranged from a low of $74.31 in the week ended June 30, 2023 to a high of $121.57 in the week ended June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price weakened to $73.75 per barrel.

Natural gas prices fell to an average $2.40 /mmbtu (-25.0% y/y) in the week ended October 11 from $2.67 in the prior week. Prices recently touched a high of $2.73/ mmbtu in the second week of June and they remained well above their low of $1.40/mmbtu in the second week of March. Prices reached a high of $9.56/mmbtu averaged in the last week of August 2022. Yesterday, the price of natural gas moved lower to $2.37/mmbtu.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U. S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** and **USENERGY** databases.

- Gasoline prices edge up, reversing earlier decline.
- Crude oil costs move higher.
- Natural gas prices decline.

U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed in Latest Week

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Mortgage loan applications plummeted 17.0% (+37.9% y/y) in the week ended October 11, after a decline of 5.1% (+54.8% y/y) in the week ended October 4. Applications for loans to purchase a house dropped 7.2% (+6.6% y/y) in the week ended October 11, after a decline of 0.1% (+8.5% y/y) in the week ended October 4, while applications to refinance an existing mortgage fell 26.3% (+111.3% y/y) following a decline of 9.3% (+158.5% y/y) in the prior week. These data are from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.71% in the week ended October 11, up 17 bps from 6.54% in the week ended October 4 and up 39 bps over the past two weeks. A recent high of 6.59% was reached in the week ended August 30. The effective rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.10% in the October 11 week, up 22 bps from the 5.88% rate in the October 4 week. The rate on 30-year Jumbo loans rose 17 bps to 6.95% in the October 11 week, from 6.78% in the October 4 week, and the rate on 5-year ARM loans rose 5 bps to 6.33% in the latest week from 6.28%.

The share of loan applications to refinance an existing mortgage was 46.5% in the week ended October 11, down from 52.4% in the week ended October 4. The share of applications for ARMs was 5.9% in the latest week, unchanged from the prior week.

The average size of a mortgage loan application was $389,200 in the week of October 11, down 3.4% w/w from $402,900 in the week ended October 4. The average size of a loan to purchase a house eased 0.9% w/w to $448,600 in the latest week from $452,600 in the October 4 week. The average size of a loan to refinance dropped 10.2% to $321,000 in the October 11 week from $357,600 in the October 4 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Loan applications to purchase and refinance a house plummeted in the latest week.
- Interest rates on all loans rose in the latest week.
- Average loan size declined.

U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Plunged in the October 11 Week

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The General Business Conditions Index from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York declined to -11.9 in October after surging to 11.5 in September. The decline brought it to the lowest level since a May level of -15.6. A reading of 3.0 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The percentage of respondents reporting an improvement in business conditions fell to 26.6% from 32.7% in September while the percentage reporting a decline in activity rose to 38.5% from 21.2% last month. The headline index reflects the answer to a single question concerning the state of economic activity. The survey responses were collected between October 2 and October 9.

Haver Analytics calculates a composite index, which is comparable to the ISM manufacturing index. That index declined to 48.1 in October from 52.0 in September. A level of 50 is the breakeven point between expansion and contraction. The index is the average of five diffusion indexes; new orders, shipments, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories with equal weights (20% each).

The new orders index fell to -10.2 in October from 9.4 in September. A lessened 29.8% of respondents reported higher orders while an increased 40% reported order declines. The shipments index fell to -2.7 from 17.9. The unfilled orders index dropped to -2.2 from 2.1 in September. Delivery times lengthened as the index fell to -3.2 from -1.1. Inventories weakened this month to -7.5 from a break-even level of zero in September.

Labor market conditions were greatly improved in October. The employment index of 4.1 compared to -5.7 in September. It was the first month above the break-even level of 50 in twelve months. An increased 12.7% of respondents reported increases in employment while a lessened 8.6% reported lower employment. The hours-worked index increased to 4.7 after rising to 2.9 in September. It was only the second positive reading following ten months where it stood below zero.

Inflation pressures increased this month. The prices paid index rose to 29.0 after easing to 23.2 in September and falling to 23.4 in August. A higher 33.3% of respondents were paying higher input prices, while a greatly reduced 4.3% reported paying lower input prices. The prices received index also rose to 10.8 from 7.4 in September. It was the highest level since May as 17.2% of respondents reported an increase in prices while 6.5% reported price declines.

Companies grew more optimistic about the outlook in October. The index for future business conditions of 38.7 this month compared to 30.6 in September, and was the highest level since October 2021. The outlook for shipments, unfilled orders, vendor performance and employment improved, but new orders eased. The future prices paid index slipped just slightly from its highest level since February 2023, but capital spending plans rebounded sharply.

The headline index reflects the answer to only one question concerning general business conditions and is not calculated from the components. The indexes in this report are diffusion indexes and measure the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease.

The New York Fed survey data are contained in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations series is in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Factory sector indicator declines to five-month low.
- New orders & shipments lead decline, while employment increases.
- Prices paid & received continue to strengthen.

U.S. Empire State Factory Index Returns to Negative Territory in October

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

Resilient US economy is pushing up longer-term inflation expectations and interest rates

Positive US economic data surprises leading to upward adjustment of interest rate expectations

Recent aggressive policy easing in China has given a massive boost to equity prices

FOMC expects much more easing now than in June

US is clear world leader in business capital spending on artificial intelligence

Blue Chip forecasters expect US to lead aggressive policy rate cuts over coming year—apart from Japan

Ratio of job openings to the number unemployed in the US now below pre-pandemic level

U.S. layoffs not showing as much cooling in labor markets as unemployment rate

While goods prices have moderated, service price inflation remains elevated and sticky

Since Jan 2023, BCEI US outlook has improved, worsened for Japan and the euro area

Persistent negative US economic surprises leading to big rate-cut expectations

Germany is Euro area weakling

Flash PMIs show good start to Q3 in US; loss of momentum in the euro area

Chinese economy on downtrend could threaten global economy

Working age population labor force participation near all-time high as retirements increase

Blue Chip forecasters look for widespread policy rate cuts just ahead

Flash June PMIs point to a widespread slowdown apart from the US

Announcement of snap French election is causing concern across Europe

The UK economy’s post-pandemic under-performance relative to its pre-pandemic trend

US Beveridge Curve back to near pre-pandemic levels

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The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) declined 1.4% (+1.1% y/y) during the four weeks ended November 22, 2024, continuing the decline in the four-week period ending late-October. 

Prices in the Metals group weakened 4.4% (+5.5% y/y) over the most recent four weeks. Tin costs fell 7.4% in four weeks (+16.7% y/y) while copper scrap prices declined 5.4% (+8.6%). Zinc prices fell 5.9% (+16.7 y/y) in four weeks and steel scrap prices were off 4.4% (-6.7% y/y) in four weeks. The cost of lead fell 3.9% (-13.7% y/y). Edging higher, aluminum prices moved up 0.2% during the last four weeks (19.1% y/y).

Crude Oil & Benzene group prices declined 1.6% (-7.5% y/y) in the latest four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil weakened 2.3% to $68.89 per barrel and stood 10.7% lower y/y. The cost of the petro-chemical benzene, used for making plastics & synthetic fibers, fell 4.1% (-16.7% y/y) in the last four weeks. Excluding crude oil, the industrial commodity price index declined 1.4% (+1.9% y/y) in the latest four-week period.

Textile prices eased 0.4% (-1.1% y/y) over the last four-week period. Cotton prices fell 2.4% (-15.0% y/y) and the cost of burlap slipped 0.5% (+15.0% y/y) during the last four weeks. 

Edging higher, prices in the Miscellaneous group improved 0.5% during the last four weeks and rose 3.5% y/y. The cost of natural rubber weakened 11.9% in four weeks but jumped 34.6% y/y. Working higher, plywood prices improved 15.4% over the last four-week period (11.6% y/y).

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.



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- Tin & copper scrap prices decline sharply.
- Crude oil prices fall. 
- Natural rubber prices decline sharply but plywood prices increase.


FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Weaken in Latest Four Weeks

Robert Brusca

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Manufacturing readings fall by a 'tick' in November, but service sector metrics eased by nearly a full point on average. These calculations are for unweighted averages of the above observations. US trends are opposite, so that the overall averages become worse when the US is excluded.  

In November the eight reporters in the table have stronger composite readings reported in only three countries, in Japan, India, and the US.  The US is the only reporter in the table to show improvements in manufacturing, services, and for the composite at the same time, in November.  The UK, France, and EMU each report increased weakness across the composite, the manufacturing sector and in services in November. Among the 24 readings across eight reporters (…and three sectors for each reporter) in November only nine of these twenty-four are stronger month-to-month. This compares to ten in October and eight in September. Weakness has dominated strength over the past three-months across these readings. 

Sequentially we look at 12 month, 6-month, and 3-month averages of finalized data, we see only six of twenty-four stronger over three-months compared to 6-months, after the 6-month averages were broadly stronger showing weakening in only seven of twenty-four cases. Over 12-months there were only nine weakening compared to 12-months ago and they were all confined to three economies: Germany, France and Japan. The unweighted averages of these reporters show little change in the averaging of these sector reading over 3-months, 6-months and 12-months.

The queue rankings underscore the sense of weakness. Assessed among the most industrialized countries, the US is starting to gain separation as its service sector is carrying it to a better overall (composite) standing. The US composite standing is at 69.5% and compares to Japan, the UK, France, Germany and EMU whose highest standing for the composite among these five reporters is a reading of 42.4% -as the group produces an average standing at the 26.1%. 

The US is still strongly ‘plugged into’ the global economy as its manufacturing sector is still the third weakest by queue percentile standing in the table.  But the vibrant US services sector is the economy’s guiding light – plus manufacturing has improved for two months in a row. The global economy is still floundering while the US shows signs of strengthening.


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S&P Flash PMIs Sag Globally

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Sales of existing homes rebounded in October, increasing 3.4% m/m (+2.9% y/y) to 3.96 million (SAAR) after having fallen in both August and September. This was the first positive annual gain since July 2021. The effective 30-year mortgage interest rate continues to rise, increasing 60 basis points during October. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected October sales of 3.90 million units. The sales figures are based on closings of sales signed over the past couple of months.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) edged up 0.1% m/m (4.0% y/y) in October to $407,200 from an upwardly revised $406,700 (previously $404,500) in September. This was the first monthly gain in the past four months. The median price of an existing single-family home increased 0.2% m/m (4.1% y/y) to $412,200 in October from $411,400 in September (revised up from $409,000). The median price of condos and co-ops fell 0.6% m/m (+1.6% y/y) to $360,300 in October from $362,500 in September (revised up from $361,600).

Sales of existing homes rose in October in each of the four major regions. Sales in the Northeast increased 2.2% m/m (unchanged y/y), the first monthly gain in three months, to 470,000. Sales in the Midwest jumped 6.7% m/m (1.1% y/y), the largest monthly gain since February, to 950,000. Sales in the South gained 2.9 m/m (2.3% y/y) to 1.77 million after monthly declines in both August and September. Sales in the West increased 1.3% m/m (8.5% y/y) to 770,000.

The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) rose 0.7% m/m (19.1% y/y) to 1.37 million last month, offsetting a 0.7% decline in September. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) inched down to 4.2 months from 4.3 months in September. This figure has generally risen since February. The record low in supply of 1.6 months was reached in January 2022. These figures date back to January 1999.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the **WEEKLY** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- Sales rose 3.4% m/m after declining in each of the previous two months.
- Year-ago sales increased 2.9%, the first positive annual reading since July 2021.
- Monthly sales rose in all four major regions.
- The median price increased 4.0% from a year ago.


U.S. Existing Homes Sales Rebounded in October

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The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index fell 0.4% (-4.1% y/y) during October, following two months of 0.3% weakening. A 0.3% decline in the October index had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Leading Index is comprised of 10 components which tend to precede changes in overall economic activity.

Component increases in the leading indicators index which contributed positively to the index change included improved factory orders for consumer goods, higher stock prices in the S&P 500 index and the leading credit index. Series contributing negatively were the factory sector workweek, higher unemployment insurance claims, the ISM new orders index, building permits, the interest rate yield curve and consumer expectations for business/economic conditions. Holding steady was new orders for nondefense capital goods.

The Coincident Economic Index was unchanged last month (1.3% y/y) after holding steady in September. Movement amongst the four components was mixed in October. Industrial production fell, but real personal income and real manufacturing & trade sales rose. Payroll employment held steady.

The Lagging Economic Index eased 0.1% last month (+0.4% y/y) after rising 0.3% in September. The duration of unemployment, the six-month change in factory unit labor costs, the prime rate charged by banks and C&I loans outstanding contributed negatively to the index change. The 6-month change in the services CPI and the ratio of consumer installment credit-to-personal income contributed positively. The business inventory-to-sales ratio contributed zero to the index change.

The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators, considered another leading indicator, rose slightly last month following three straight months of increase.

The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's **BCI** database; the components are available there, and most are also in **USECON**. The expectations are in the **AS1REPNA** database. Visit the Conference Board's [website](https://www.conference-board.org/us) for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.


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- Component movement in leading index is mixed.
- Coincident indicators hold steady again.
- Lagging indicators are little changed.


U.S. Leading Indicators Continue to Decline in October

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The Current General Activity Diffusion Index declined to -5.5 during November after improving to 10.3 in October, according to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, indicating deterioration in factory sector activity this month. A reading of 6.4 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Eighteen percent of the firms reported increases in general activity in November while 23.1% reported decreases. Responses to this month's survey were collected between November 11 and November 18.

Haver Analytics calculates an ISM-adjusted current activity diffusion index from five key components using the methodology along the lines of the national ISM index. The index declined to 49.2 In November and reversed all of its October improvement to 52.7.

The new orders index fell to 8.9 this month after rising to 14.2 in October, while the shipments series declined to 4.5 after rising to 7.4. The unfilled orders index rose to 6.8 after improving to -1.5 and the delivery times reading weakened to -2.1 after rising to 10.2 in October. The inventories index increased to 5.4 after falling to 0.5 last month.

The number of employees’ index increased to 8.6 in November after falling to -2.2 in October, suggesting an overall increase in employment. Seventeen percent of respondents reported increases in employment in November while 8.5% reported declines. The average employee workweek index surged to 17.4, its highest level since April 2022, from -11.8 in October.

Inflation indicators weakened this month. The prices paid index declined to 26.6 in November after falling to 29.7 last month. The index had risen in September to the highest level since December 2022. A lessened 26.6% of respondents reported increases in input prices in November while none reported decreases. The prices received index declined to 14.3 after falling to 17.9 in October. A lessened 15.4% of respondents reported increases in prices while a decreased 1.1% reported declines.

The future activity index surged to 56.6 during November after rising	to 36.7 in October. The reading was 15.8 in September. Most of the components rose, notably new orders and employment. Shipments and unfilled orders increased moderately to new highs. The prices paid series jumped to the highest level since April 2022 while prices received also strengthened. The expected capital spending measure rose slightly and was near its highest level in two and one-half years.

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS), conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants. The diffusion indexes in the MBOS represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. The series from the survey dating back to May 1968 can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database. The expectations forecast figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.


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- Current General Activity Index retraces two months’ improvement.
- New orders & shipments ease, but employment strengthens.
- Inflation indicators fall sharply.


U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Weakens in November