- PHSI +2.2% (+6.9% y/y) in November vs. +1.8% (5.3% y/y) in October.
- Home sales up m/m in the South (5.2%), West (0.5%) and Midwest (0.4%) but down m/m in the Northeast (-1.3%).
- Home sales up y/y in all four regions, w/ the highest y/y rate in the West (11.8%).
More Commentaries
USA| Dec 23 2024U.S. Durable Goods Orders Decline Sharply in November
- Total orders dragged lower by aircraft; excluding transportation, orders are little changed.
- Core capital goods orders improve.
- Unfilled orders & inventories rise.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Price index held back by steady goods costs and slower services price rise.
- Real spending growth concentrated in goods.
- Disposable income growth slows.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Dec 20 2024Italian Confidence Erodes in December
Italian consumer confidence edged lower in December as business confidence in manufacturing notch lower as well. Consumer confidence has slipped for three months in a row. But still has a 67-percentile standing on data back to 1997.
The last 12 Months Consumers rate the overall situation over the last 12-months as slightly weaker, falling on balance over three-months and with a 61.2 percentile standing.
Looking ahead- Over the next 12-months- the overall situation has slipped for three months in a row and is net lower over 12-months as well. The expected overall situation has strengthened but lies only in its 23rd percentile, which is quite weak. Expected unemployment conditions are slightly weaker in December and lower on balance over 3-months and 12-months with a 69.3 percentile standing. Household budgets weakened in December but have strengthened on balance over 3-months and 12-months. The standing for the response is in this 77the percentile robust in the face of deteriorating unemployment prospects.
The household situation for the last 12-months improved in December and had improved over the past 3- and 12-months. With a 68-percentile standing. But, looking ahead over the next 12-months, conditions are slightly weaker in November and December than in October and slightly lower on balance over 12-months. The standing on this metric is in its 13th percentile. As firmly as conditions were viewed for households over the last 12-months there is just as much concern about the future spinning that forward.
The prospect for making major purchases is unchanged month-to-month but weaker on balance over 3-months with a midrange standing in December just above its historic median at its 52.5 percentile.
Italy has had stronger ranking confidence reading than many other EMU members, by may not be losing its advantage as its forward-looking metrics are losing purchase.
France| Dec 19 2024French Assessment is Mixed between Manufacturing and Services
Industry climate improves slightly in December while for services the climate situation eroded. But both of the series are in a significant long term down trend from 2021 onward. Between Covid and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the French economy has been under unrelenting pressure that recently appears to have taken on an even weaker dimension.
Manufacturing Production expectations weakened further in December from November after production expectations weakened in November as well. However, orders and demand show that overall order and foreign orders improved in December compared to November. The price outlook weakened for firms assessing their own pricing prospects but accelerated in evaluating the overall prospects for prices in manufacturing.
In terms of rankings… the rankings on all these categories are substantially below 50, a ranking that marks the historic median for each series. The only exceptions to this are two: foreign orders & demand that have a 68-percentile standing and inventories with a 78-percentile standing. Manufacturing in France is weak and while the industry climate reading moved up in December most components assessing the sector weakened in December.
USA| Dec 19 2024U.S. Existing Homes Sales Surge in November
- Sales rise to highest level since March.
- Monthly sales rise in three of four regions of the country.
- Median price edges lower.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Dec 19 2024U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Declines in December
- Current General Activity Index is lowest since April 2023.
- New orders, shipments & employment weaken.
- Prices paid index improves but prices received falls sharply.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Dec 19 2024U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Declined in Most Recent Week
- Initial claims were lower than expected in the week ended December 14.
- Continuing claims remained steady.
- The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2%.
Global| Dec 19 2024Charts of the Week: Inflated Expectations
Investors have shifted their attention back to the economic data and monetary policy over the past few days, marking a shift from recent weeks when political developments took centre stage in shaping financial market sentiment (chart 1). While this week’s decision by the US Fed to cut policy rates by 25 bps was widely anticipated, the accompanying commentary and forecasts have heightened concerns that US monetary policy will remain tighter for longer in the months ahead. Similarly, the BoE’s likely decision to leave rates unchanged this week has stoked comparable concerns about the UK’s policy trajectory. The key driver behind these concerns is inflation. Persistent inflation in the services sector (chart 2) and ongoing wage pressures are leaving policymakers in the US and UK reluctant to ease monetary policy further. This hesitancy has been amplified by financial conditions that have arguably been looser in recent months than central banks would prefer (chart 3). Additionally, a potential shift toward a more protectionist global trade environment next year could exacerbate price pressures in traded goods sectors, further complicating efforts to bring inflation back toward target levels (chart 4). Meanwhile, in Japan, the BoJ’s decision to maintain its accommodative monetary policy highlights a contrasting challenge: low inflation and a fragile economy. These dynamics stand in stark contrast to the issues confronting the US Fed (chart 5). Further complicating the global picture is China (chart 6), where recent data point to an economy weighed down by weak consumer demand, excess industrial capacity, and tepid inflation. This also underlines the increasingly divergent challenges faced by policymakers across the world’s major economies as they navigate a highly complex and uncertain macroeconomic landscape.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
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