- Light truck sales highest since Apr. ’21; imported light truck sales at a record high.
- Auto sales highest since Apr. ’23.
- Domestic & import sales both increase.
- Imports' market share rebounds to 24.7%, the highest since Nov. ’23.
Graphs of the Week
More Commentaries
- Global| Jan 02 2025
Manufacturing PMIs: Ready to Flip the Calendar- Not the Message
The readings improve a bit in December, moving the median to 49.7 from a 3-month average of 49.3. The average of manufacturing among reporting Asian contributors have moved up above 50. The BRIC average remains above 50 but has slipped a bit lower on the month.
However, overall, the percentage of reporters that improved month-to-month is only 27.8%. Two thirds improve over three months compared to six-months based on comparing the averages; 22% improve over six months compared to 12-month averages. And two-thirds improved over 12 months compared the 12-month average from one year-ago. This is not a strong record of improving trends based on breadth.
The changes in the medians calculated over 12 months, 6 months and 3 months show that the median readings have been steadily eroding.
The queue standing places an ordinal ranking on each contributor over data since January 2020. Among the 18 reporters in the table, only five have queue standings above their 50% level (above their respective medians calculated over this period). Four of the countries have standings in the 50-60 percentile range with the highest rankings at a 63.3 percentile standing (Taiwan). China, India, Mexico, and Canada (all either BRIC or U.S. MCA members) are the remaining countries with standings above their historic medians.
Eight reporters in the table have PMI values in December that are above the values they posted in January 2020. The strongest reading is reported by Russia, at a gain of 2.9 points (really?) with the weakest, a drop of 9.1 points in France. The U.S., the U.K., Germany, and the euro area all have drops over this period of 2.5 points or more. The most developed countries seem to be having the hardest time during this episode.
PMI standings log a median at 38.3% for reporting countries over the last five years of data. The High-Low percentages find that Mexico, China, and India have standings in the upper 20 percentile of that range (as opposed to their queue percentile) of data. Only the most developed countries and the euro area, Germany, France, the U.S., the U.K., and Brazil have percentile standings below their high-low midpoints (below the 50 mark).
While the U.S. economy is showing signs of ongoing and even improving growth, the rest of the world is not. Even in the U.S., manufacturing is the laggard sector. The graph shows that since early-2023 there has been little improvement.
- FHFA HPI +0.4% (+4.5% y/y) in October vs. +0.7% (+4.5% y/y) in September.
- House prices up m/m in six of nine census divisions but down for the first time since June in Pacific (-0.4%), Mountain (-0.1%), and West North Central (-0.1%).
- House prices up y/y in all of the nine regions, w/ the highest rate in Middle Atlantic (7.0%).
- PHSI +2.2% (+6.9% y/y) in November vs. +1.8% (+5.3% y/y) in October.
- Home sales up m/m in the South (5.2%), West (0.5%) and Midwest (0.4%) but down m/m in the Northeast (-1.3%).
- Home sales up y/y in all four regions, w/ the highest y/y rate in the West (11.8%).
- USA| Dec 27 2024
U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Widens to $102.86 Billion in November
- Larger-than-expected goods trade deficit after October’s narrowing.
- Exports rise 4.4%, the first m/m gain since August.
- Imports rebound 4.5%, the second m/m increase in three months.
- USA| Dec 26 2024
U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Edged Down in Most Recent Week
- Initial claims were lower than expected in the week ended December 21.
- Continuing claims rose to the highest level since November 2021.
- The insured unemployment rate rose to 1.3%.
- Confidence weakens to lowest level in three months.
- Present situations measure dips, while expectations fall sharply.
- Inflation expectations are unchanged, but interest rate expectations rise.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- November sales +5.9% (+8.7% y/y) to 664,000 vs. -14.8% (-6.8% y/y) to 627,000 in October.
- Sales up m/m and y/y in the Midwest and South but down m/m and y/y in the Northeast and West.
- Median sales price drops to $402,600, the lowest since Feb. ’22; avg. sales price falls to a 3-month-low $484,800.
- Months' supply of new homes for sale drops to 8.9 mths. from October’s 2-year high.
- USA| Dec 23 2024
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Decline Sharply in November
- Total orders dragged lower by aircraft; excluding transportation, orders are little changed.
- Core capital goods orders improve.
- Unfilled orders & inventories rise.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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