Economy in Brief

The global manufacturing data showed broad weakening in April as conditions weakened across more than half of the contributing early reporters in the S&P survey of manufacturing. Of the 18 early reporting countries, more than half of them showed deceleration over six months and 12 months. Over three months, only 8 of 18 showed deterioration and that's about as good as it got in this report. In the current month, month-to-month changes showed more than half of the survey contributors showing weaker results than the month before. In the S&P framework, manufacturing improved month-to-month for the U.S.; however, looking at sequential averages for the U.S., U.K., European monetary union, Canada, and Japan, we see a steady weakening and results over 12 months, over six months versus 12 months, and for three months versus 6 months. The highly developed countries are not doing particularly well.

Asian economies are also showing slight deterioration but doing a little better than the developed countries in general.

Only five of the 18 reporting countries have queue percentile standings in their data back to January 2021 that are above their medians. Readings at or above the 50% mark are at or above the median standing. Canada is showing the weakest manufacturing result on record over this span, in terms of its queue percentile standing which is at 0 in the current month.

I showed the graphic for the Baltic dry goods index in this report rather than statistics on the manufacturing PMI data because the Baltic data, which reflect shipping volume for dry goods - that is excluding things like oil - is weak but it's only in the neighborhood where it's been for some time. There has been a great deal of talk about how tariffs may have impacted trade flows, expected trade flows, shipping, shipping rates, and the like. However, according to the Baltic dry goods index, there isn't much evidence that this is occurring right now and affecting the current data. That may still lie ahead but for now it's not baked in the cake.

Consumer confidence in Japan in April slipped for all households as well as for the two-person household measure. The index level is now the weakest it's been since early-2023 with the all-household measure at an 8.2 percentile standing on data back to 2004 and the two-person household measure in about the same place, at its 9.4 percentile standing on data back to 2004. Consumers in Japan in April suddenly pulled back their expectations and significantly reduced their confidence.

The overall livelihood measure in April fell to 27.4 from 30.9 in March and an even higher level in February. Income growth slipped to 37.5 after reaching 38.9 in March and being higher still in February. Employment slipped quite sharply to 36.2 from 40.0 in March and from a slightly higher reading in February. People's willingness to buy durable goods fell to 24.2 from 27.4 in March. The March level was slightly higher than the reading in February; the decline in confidence also corresponded to a decline in the value of assets respondents hold; that reading fell to 34.3 from 40.7 in March and from 42.9 in February. Perhaps a good part of the degradation and expectations has to do with this drop in the value of assets.

On going drops- sharp declines in train Looking at changes across periods of three, six and 12 months, we see declines on all horizons for the all household and the two-person household measures. In fact, all of the components are consumer confidence our net lower over three months, six months and 12 months.

The declines month-to-month were extremely sharp. Over the last 253 months (over 21 years), the monthly drop in asset values has been sharper only once. The drop in the livelihood measure has been sharper only six times. The monthly drops are bottom ten events by count except for income growth and employment that are bottom 22 and 13 events, respectively. The headline drops are bottom ten ranking drops month-to-month as well.

Weak standings as well as sharp drops The rankings for the consumer confidence components are uniformly low. The strongest ranking is for employment that has a 24.5 percentile standing, in the lower quarter of its range. Income growth has a 20.4 percentile standing, at the border of the lower one-fifth amidst a historic range values. The value of assets has a 6.1 percentile standing with the willingness to buy durable goods at a 3.3 percentile standing; the overall livelihood metric has a 1.6 percentile standing.

Against this background, the standing for the overall confidence index is at its 8th or 9th percentile depending on which of the two overall measures you prefer to emphasize. Clearly the weakness in the survey is throughout the survey. As is the case with surveys in the United States, in Japan the relative strongest readings are for employment, that helps to hold the overall measure from getting as weak as some of its other components weaken. Since employment is an extremely important metric in consumer confidence, its stability helps to stabilize the overall measure. However, for Japan the employment metric, while the strongest of the lot, is still quite weak in the lower 1/4 of its historic ranking and data since 2004.