- PHSI +3.3% (+2.6% y/y) in Nov., driven by lower mortgage rates.
- Home sales m/m up in all four major regions, w/ the highest rate in the West (+9.2%).
- Home sales y/y up across all regions, w/ the highest rate in the South (+3.3%).
Sweden| Dec 29 2025Sweden’s Trade; Exports Surge as Imports Recede
Swedish exports advanced month-to-month for the second month in a row while imports continued on a losing streak declining by 0.9% in November.
Exports have gradually been firming with exports falling by 6.1% over 12 months, rising at an annual rate of 4.8% over six months, and then rising at a 3.9% annual rate over three months. Exports are not on a steady acceleration path, but they have transitioned from a year-over-year growth rate that's negative to moderate positive short-term rates of growth.
Swedish imports, on the other hand, are weakening relatively sharply. Imports were down 4.4% over 12 months, down at a 1.2% annual rate over six months, and falling at a 17% annual rate over three months.
The global trade picture remains somewhat mixed. The Baltic Dry goods index, which is an indicator of global trade volume, has backed off of its highs but continues to post relatively steady volume indications. However, the S&P global manufacturing survey has been showing weakness; when manufacturing is weak, typically international trade is weak as well. Swedish trade may be picking up some of that weakness as well.
- Initial claims declined from the prior week.
- Continuing claims rose from the prior week.
- The insured unemployment rate edged up.
USA| Dec 24 2025U.S. Mortgage Applications Dropped in the Week of December 19
- Both purchase applications and refinancing loan applications fell in the latest week.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans fell to 6.48%.
- Average loan size edged down.
USA| Dec 23 2025U.S. GDP Growth is Strong in Q3; Profits Jump
- Consumer spending strengthens; growth in business investment decelerates.
- Corporate profit growth led by earnings abroad.
- Rise in chain price index accelerates.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Today’s release contained figures for both October and November that had been delayed by the federal government shutdown.
- IP fell in October but recovered in November.
- Manufacturing output was tepid, falling in October and unchanged in November.
- A surge in utilities output in October prevented a larger decline in total production.
- A jump in mining output in November accounted for all of the increase in total production.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
- New orders for durable goods slumped 2.2% m/m in October following increases in both August and September
- A 24% monthly drop in aircraft orders drove the overall decline
- Orders excluding aircraft rose 0.2% m/m in October
- Core capital goods shipments and orders continued to rise in October with small upward revisions to September
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
- The CFNAI is negative for sixth straight month.
- Three of four index components remain negative
- Improvement in labor market reading leads m/m gain.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago indicated that the December 22, 2025, release of the CFNAI was originally scheduled to cover data through November 2025. However, because of the delay in data releases from government statistical agencies due to the federal government shutdown, this CFNAI release will instead only cover data through September 2025.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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