- Rise recaptures part of earlier decline.
- Regional gains are widespread.
USA| Jun 26 2025U.S. Pending Home Sales Rise in May
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 26 2025New Orders for Durable Goods: Firm Reading for May
- Fueled by robust orders for aircraft, but also respectable elsewhere.
- Demand for capital goods holding up well.
USA| Jun 26 2025U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Increases in May
- Deficit rise follows substantial narrowing.
- Sharp export decline reverses earlier increase.
- Imports are little changed following huge decline.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- CFNAI -0.28 in May; -0.36 in April.
- Two of four CFNAI components up m/m, but three make negative contributions.
- Personal Consumption & Housing index falls to -0.12, a four-month low.
- CFNAI-MA3 drops to -0.16, the first negative figure since Jan.; still above -0.70 (recession signal).
USA| Jun 26 2025U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Eased in Latest Week
- Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined by 10,000 in the week ended June 21.
- Total beneficiaries rose by 37,000 in the June 14 week.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.3%.
USA| Jun 25 2025U.S. New Home Sales Decline Sharply in May; Prices Strengthen
- Sales fall to lowest level since October.
- Declines spread throughout most of country.
- Median sales price strengthens to highest since January.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 25 2025U.S. Mortgage Applications Rebound 1.1% in the June 20 Week
- Purchase applications fall 0.4% w/w while refinancing loan applications recover 3.0% w/w.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans rises to 7.06%.
- Average loan size declines to the lowest level since the January 17 week.
France| Jun 25 2025French Household Confidence Remains Weak
French household confidence ticked higher to 88.4 in June from 88.3 in May, retaining most of the drop from April to May.
June confidence has a 24.8 percentile ranking near the upper border of its bottom 25 percentile on a ranked basis. The standings are coded nearly uniformly in red, indicating bad economic results. While price diffusion below 50 is good news, weak prices like that also suggest ongoing weak economic activity. For most the survey indicates a standing below the 50th percentile that implies a reading below its median on this timeline back to 2001. Unemployment has a high 81 percentile standing and is coded read because a high standing for unemployment is bad news.
The favorability to save is strong. The standings had coded black. But often when the favorability and ability to save is high, it is because the spending environment is poor, and it is true here with the spending environment with a 26.5 percentile standing.
Living standards for the next 12 months have an extremely low 6.5 percentile standing.
Two columns to the right chronical changes in the survey value over two periods for Covid and to the invasion of Ukraine and then from the date of Ukraine’s invasion to the current observation. Among the increases in readings since Ukraine’s invasion is a sharp increase in expectation of unemployment and an increase in the favorability to save.
Not only is confidence net lower since the invasion but inflation assessments are lower as well.
The favorability to spend has increased since Covid struck but then after Ukraine was invaded the favorability to spend fell, unwinding most of its recovery since Covid struck.
On balance, the INSEE survey remains weak and French consumers are troubled. There had been some recovery in train, through mid-2024. But since then, the recovery has eroded as the chart at the top of this report shows.
However, perhaps the quick end to the Middle East war and the prospect of less risk to oil markets can help restore confidence. Ukraine’s war with Russia is still in progress. But with the Middle East war stalled- at least for a while, perhaps attention can be shifted to Ukraine with a meaningful positive impact.
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