Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics

Economy in Brief

  • Markets have become increasingly optimistic this week about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September following some dovish remarks from Fed Chair Powell. Meanwhile, the IMF has maintained that the outlook for the world economy remains broadly balanced, a message that chimes too with the latest Blue Chip survey of economic forecasters (chart 1). That being said, incoming data from many major economies, including China, have disappointed to the downside much more frequently in recent days (see charts 2 and 4) keeping recession risks elevated (chart 3). And while investors in big US technology companies have, until very recently, brushed off those risks, buoyed by optimism about the productivity-related potential from AI, broader global equity market gyrations equally suggest heightened concern. Still, aside from AI’s-productivity potential, there are grounds for optimism about other areas of the global economy, including India (chart 1) and South-East Asia (chart 6). Latest data and forecasts additionally suggest the near-term outlook may be brightening a little in the UK (charts 1 and 3).

    • Leading index has been declining since January 2022.
    • Coincident Indicator Index continues to rise.
    • Lagging Economic Index edges higher.
    • The headline index jumped to 13.9 in July from 1.3 in June.
    • Jump led by surges in new orders and shipments.
    • The ISM PMI version calculated by Haver jumped to 54.9, the first move above the critical 50 level since August 2022.
    • Employment surged above zero for the first time in nine months.
    • Expectations rebounded to the highest reading since July 2021.
    • Initial claims match highest level since the June 8 week.
    • Continuing claims surge to three-year high.
    • Insured unemployment rate holds steady.
  • The chart of new passenger car registrations provides the best overview of the performance auto registrations and registrations in Europe through June of this year. Based on the numbers, there is a gain of 7.1% month-to-month in June, but there is also a decline of 10.8% in May and that follows an increase of 11.8% in April. The path of passenger car registrations is basically well sketched out by the head movement of a bobble-head doll attached to the dashboard of a ‘57 Chevy driving over a cobblestone street. And the chart is clear that there has been a lot of up and down in registrations, but the trend has been still very flat amid all the choppiness.

    Cyclical behavior Vehicle registrations had begun a peaking action before COVID struck, but then the COVID episode took registrations down very sharply. They rebounded quickly and sharply post-COVID, but that didn't last very long. Russia's invasion of Ukraine took its toll on the outlook and on sentiment. As a result, another downtrend took place. That bottomed early in 2022 and there was a rebound; that rebound had pretty much run its course by mid-2023; from that point forward, we have simply been looking at this very volatile sideways performance with monthly registrations going back and forth, up and down but creating no trend.

    Year-on-year growth clashes with volatility Still, over 12 months total European registrations were up by 3.1%. If we calculate that from a three-month moving average just to try to stabilize the calculation, it moves up slightly to 4.2%. The year-over-year comparison shows increases in registrations in each of the five countries detailed on the table. Registrations are strongest year-over-year in Italy where they rise 15.2%; they rise by 5.7% in Germany and by 5.1% in France. Registrations rise by a lesser amount in Spain and the U.K. as Spanish registrations are up by 2% over 12 months and U.K. registrations are up by 2.4%. Here note that the three strongest year-on-year gains are France, Italy, and Germany that had year-ago results that fell month-to-month or were only a tick higher by 0.1%. Spain and Italy, in contrast log month-on-month changes a year ago that rose 3% to 4%. So volatility haunts even the year-over-year calculations.

    Even Broader calculations The big broad calculation that looks at the percent change of the most recent 12-month average against the previous nonoverlapping 12-month average shows European registrations up by 7.4% while registrations among the five countries detailed on the table show an 11.2% gain in the U.K., a 9.7% gain in Italy, a 10.7% gain in France, and a 7.7% gain in Spain; Germany puts in the weakest performance having registrations up by just 4.7%.

    Performance since COVID For the sake of perspective, I also calculate the percent change in registrations compared to January 2020 before COVID struck. On that basis, European total registrations are lower by 12.7%. U.K. registrations are lower by 18%, Spanish registrations are lower by 10.7%, Italian registrations are lower by 5%, and French registrations are lower by 4.4%. Registrations in Germany are lowered by just 1.8%. Registrations in Germany have retained their level better than any other countries in the group.

    • Total IP increased 0.6% m/m in June with upward revisions to both April and May.
    • Manufacturing output rose 0.4% m/m with a marked upward revision to May.
    • A 2.8% m/m in utilities production also provided a significant boost in June.
    • Capacity utilization increased to 78.8%, its highest reading since last September.
    • Multi-family starts surge while single-family declines.
    • Starts are mixed m/m throughout the country.
    • Building permits recover after falling to four-year low.
    • Mortgage applications rise to highest level since January.
    • Home purchase applications decline while refinancing surges.
    • Mortgage rates decline.