Growing concern about the economic ramifications from France’s upcoming election have been weighing on risk appetite in European financial markets in recent weeks (see chart 1). But the outlook for the broader world economy has also been arguably taking a turn for the worse. Evidence is certainly mounting that global growth momentum is slowing (see charts 2 and 3), that financial conditions are tightening (charts 4 and 6), and that central banks may now be more hesitant to loosen monetary policy in the period immediately ahead (chart 5).
USA| Jun 27 2024U.S. Durable Goods Orders Are Little Changed in May
- Aircraft orders surge as motor vehicle orders moderate.
- Excluding transportation, orders ease.
- Shipments slip but inventories & backlogs edge higher.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 27 2024U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Again in May
- May PHSI at a record low; two straight m/m declines after rises in Mar. and Feb.
- Home sales fall m/m in the Midwest and South but rebound in the Northeast and West.
- Home sales decline y/y in the four regions, w/ the deepest fall in the South (-10.4%).
USA| Jun 27 2024U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens in May
- Largest goods trade deficit since May ’22.
- Export decline reverses April increase.
- Imports fall moderately following April surge.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 27 2024Q1 2024 GDP Growth Revised Up/ Demand Down
- Real GDP growth in Q1 was revised up to 1.4% from 1.3%.
- PCE growth revised down markedly to 1.5%, the weakest reading in three quarters.
- Both GDP and PCE inflation revised up 0.1%-point.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 27 2024U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims Down 6,000 in June 22 Week
- Initial claims slightly less than expected.
- Continuing claims did rise in June 15 week, but prior week revised down somewhat.
- Insured unemployment rate holds at 1.2%, same since March 2023.
Global| Jun 27 2024Globally Money Growth Recovers, Moderates – Still Weak
Money supply growth is picking up globally except, of course, in Japan. In the European Monetary Area, money supply is up 0.6% over 12 months, it's up at a 2.1% annual rate over six months, and it's rising at a 2.8% annual rate over three months. Credit to residents in the European Monetary Area also is making a recovery, with 12- and six-month growth rates at 0.3% and with the three-month growth rate at an annual rate of 0.8%. Private credit is growing just slightly faster, with the three-month growth rate at 1.2% annualized.
In the United States, M2 money supply growth has accelerated from 0.6% over 12 months to 2.5% pace over six months and to a 4.2% annual rate over three months. Money growth in the United Kingdom, similarly, is accelerating from 0.3% over 12 months to 4.1% annualized over six months to 6.1% annual rate over three months.
Japan is the exception, with growth over 12 months at 1.8%, slowing over six months to a 1.6% annual rate and then slowing further over three months to a 0.5% annual rate.
Adjusted for the effects of inflation, money supply in the monetary union is gradually picking up as it moves from a decline of 1.9% over 12 months to an increase at a positive annual rate of 0.6% over three months. In the U.S., M2 growth is -2.6% in real terms over 12 months but flips the switch to grow at a 1.3% annual rate over three months. In the U.K., money supply M4 falls at a 3.3% annual rate over 12 months but then grows at a 2.5% annual rate over three months. Japan shows real money growth at -1% for 12 months, then at -0.4% over six months and at -3.1% annualized over three months.
USA| Jun 26 2024U.S. New Home Sales Decline Sharply in May
- Sales fall to six-month low.
- Declines are logged throughout the country.
- Median sales price eases.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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