Tom Moeller began last month's discussion of durable goods order with the warning, "Be not misled by the headline figure", which was +3.3%, a hefty one-month gain. He continued, "The underlying trend of durable orders has weakened [...]
Introducing
Carol Stone, CBE
in:Our Authors
Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
Publications by Carol Stone, CBE
Global| Nov 24 2010October U.S. Durable Goods Orders Reverse September Jump
- Global| Nov 24 2010
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Show Marked Drop
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped last week to 407,000 from 444,000 in the November 13 week (revised from 439,000). This was the lowest weekly number since July 19, 2008. The 4-week moving average, which smoothes out [...]
- Global| Nov 24 2010
U.S. Personal Income & Spending Firm While Savings Improves
Personal income may be finally on the mend. Overall income recovered 0.5% last month after a September dip and a 0.5% August gain, both of which were slightly higher than reported last month. A 0.4% gain last month had been expected. [...]
- Global| Oct 29 2010
U.S. Employment Cost Index Remains Sluggish; State & Local Govt Flat
The employment cost index for private industry workers slowed to a 0.4% increase in Q3 total compensation from 0.5% growth in Q2. The year-on-year gain was 2.0%, a little bit better than Q2's 1.9%. For all civilian workers, the [...]
- Global| Oct 15 2010
U.S. Budget Deficit Decreases in FY10: "Only" 8.9% of GDP
The U.S. Government's budget deficit decreased in fiscal year 2010, ended September 30, to $1.294 trillion from $1.417 trillion in FY09, according to the annual release of fiscal year budget results published today by the U.S. [...]
- Global| Oct 15 2010
Business Inventories Expand, Continuing Realignment with Growing Sales
Businesses continued to add inventories in August, and the inventory/sales ratio made it to 1.27, the highest since November 2009. Total stocks were up 0.6% in August, following July's 1.1% gain. This sum of manufacturers, wholesalers [...]
- Global| Oct 15 2010
Consumer Sentiment Largely Stable, a Little Worse than Expected
Consumer sentiment is stuck: for a fourth consecutive month, the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment has hovered within a range of 1.1 points and eased just slightly in the latest, mid-October reading to 67.9 from 68.2 [...]
- Global| Oct 01 2010
Construction Spending Manages Small Rise in August, Due to Public Sector
The value of construction-put-in-place increased in August by 0.4%, following a downwardly revised 1.4% decline in July and an upwardly revised 0.6% rise in June. The August result compared with Consensus forecasts of a 0.4% decline, [...]
- Global| Sep 17 2010
Credit Market Borrowing Begins To Expand; "Rest-of-World" Investors Provide Sizable Funding
Credit market borrowing grew $567 billion, seasonally adjusted annual rate, in Q2, stronger than the $498 billion amount in Q1. That figure, in turn, reflects a sizable revision of the tiny $10.3 billion paydown initially reported. [...]
- Global| Sep 16 2010
U.S. Current Account Deficit Widens Further in Q2 with Less Growth in Goods Exports & Steady Growth in Imports
The U.S. current account deficit widened in Q2 to $123.3 billion from a revised $109.2 billion in Q1; this result was very close to consensus expectations for $123.9 billion. The Q2 ratio to GDP is 3.4%, up from 3.0% in Q1. The [...]
- Global| Aug 19 2010
Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Negative for August: Renewed Weakness? -- or Routine Shakiness?
Disappointingly, the Philadelphia Fed's monthly business outlook survey turned negative for this month. The general activity index was -7.7% compared with July's +5.1%. It was the first negative reading since July 2009. The weakness [...]
- Global| Aug 19 2010
U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims Jump Back to 500,000; Total Recipients Climb Back Toward 10 Million
Unemployment insurance claims jumped unexpectedly in the week ending August 14, reaching 500,000 from an upwardly revised 488,000 the week before (originally 484,000). It was the first appearance of 500,000 initial claims since [...]
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