- Housing starts +15.8% (-4.4% y/y) to 1.499 mil. in Dec. vs. -3.7% (-14.3% y/y) to 1.294 mil. in Nov.
- Single-family starts highest since Feb. ’24; multi-family starts highest since Dec. ’23.
- Housing starts up m/m and y/y in the Northeast, Midwest and South but down in the West.
- Building permits fall for the third month in four, due to a drop in multi-family permits.
United Kingdom| Jan 17 2025U.K. Retail Sales Volumes Slide
U.K. sales volume for retail sales has been slipping roughly since mid-2024. The 3-month volume index is falling at a 4.4% annual rate over three months. Sales are up at a scant 0.2% annual rate over six months and by 3.5% year-over-year. Passenger car registrations show weakness falling at a 7.6% annual rate over three months, gaining at a 4.6% pave over six months, and then showing contraction at a minor -0.1% rate over 12 months.
Volume Trends Apart from the sequential data, the monthly volume results show a decline in December, a gain in November and a drop in October. The monthly nominal data show small nominal gain in November and December against a sharper nominal decline in October.
U.K. nominal sales QTD relative nominal decline in the fourth quarter with retail sales volumes also show decline dropping at a 2.9% annual rate overall. Passenger car registrations are falling at a 12.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter.
Surveys and Confidence U.K. surveys on retailing for the ‘time of year’ and the ‘volume of orders’ from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) show sputtering monthly results. The CBI reading for time of year (TOY) and volume of orders (VoO) both show net decline of three months. VoO also falls over six months whereas TOY sales are higher over six months. Both TOY and VoO sales are higher over 12 months. TOY sales are up by 2-index points while VoO sales are up by 28 of their index points. While the year-on-year survey results show short-term agreement, their year-on-year signals seem different. But their long-term ranking results alone again show similarity at the TOY sales log a 21.8 percentile standing vs. VoO that is even weaker at a14-percentile mark. It is an even weaker full-sample standing despite the better 12-month gain. We often see this sort of thing in data comparisons. But if surveys are well-constructed, they usually track but there often are still disparities. That is true here as well and we can nit-pick the details but the overarching message here is that conditions are weak. Consumer confidence from GfK has been volatile over the span but when we rank the confidence index, it stands at 40.5 percentile level, which is stronger than for the surveys but still below its median and barely over half the standing of real retail sales growth.
Rankings/Standings The consumer confidence standing is interesting at 40.5% but it is not ‘close’ to the volume ranking which is at its 77-percentile. The confidence ranking is still slightly below its median. The retail sales ranking is applied to real sales and their 12-month growth rate. The ranking of sales volume is much higher than any ranking registered by CBI surveys or by consumer confidence. Passenger car registrations are weak, too, at a 47.2 percentile standing. In contrast, nominal retail sales have a 60.6 percentile standing. Part of that is the boost they get from the 80.9 percentile standing from the CPI-H, from inflation.
Global| Jan 16 2025Charts of the Week: Yielding Conclusions
A steep sell-off in global bond markets has dominated financial headlines over the past week or so, drawing intense scrutiny from investors and policymakers alike (chart 1). The implications of this for the global economy, however, will depend on the underlying drivers that have been fuelling the rout. With our charts this week, we examine the data to identify some of the likely culprits. Inflation concerns are front and centre, with rising consumer prices in recent months (chart 2) reigniting fears of tighter monetary policy. Waning overseas demand, particularly from Japan and China (charts 3 and 4), may also be playing a significant role. Meanwhile, quantitative tightening (chart 5) has possibly siphoned liquidity from financial markets, while fiscal policy uncertainties are further rattling investor confidence. The easy conclusion is that all these factors—ranging from inflationary pressures to fiscal risks—are complicit to varying degrees. However, whether this marks the beginning of a broader reckoning or merely a passing squall hinges on how incoming data now evolve and how policymakers respond to these challenges. On that first point, weaker-than-expected inflation data from the US and UK this week appear to have stopped the rot for now (chart 6). On the latter, a new US administration could add another layer of unpredictability and the coming weeks could prove pivotal in shaping market expectations and the trajectory of the global economy.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jan 16 2025U.S. Retail Sales Rise for the Fourth Straight Month in December
- December total retail sales +0.4% (+3.9% y/y), w/ m/m rises in most categories.
- Ex-auto sales +0.4% (+2.9% y/y); auto sales +0.7% (+8.4% y/y).
- Rebounds in miscellaneous store sales (+4.3%) and sporting goods store sales (+2.6%).
- Drops in building materials & garden equipt. store sales (-2.0%) and restaurant & drinking place sales (-0.3%).
USA| Jan 16 2025U.S. Import and Export Prices Rose in December
- Import prices advanced 0.1% m/m, the same monthly gain as in October and November.
- Both imported fuel and nonfuel prices rose in December.
- Export prices increased a larger-than-expected 0.3% in December. Gains were widespread across end-use categories.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
- Total beneficiaries decline in prior week.
- Insured unemployment rate holds at 1.2%.
- Rates in states range from 0.33% in Kentucky to 2.95% in Rhode Island.
USA| Jan 15 2025U.S. Headline Consumer Price Inflation Edged Up in December
- The headline CPI increased 0.4% m/m. pushing the y/y rate up to 2.9%, the highest rate since July.
- The core index rose 0.2%, pushing the y/y rate down to 3.2% after four months at 3.3%.
- Energy prices were up markedly as the normal decline in gasoline prices was much less than the seasonal factors had anticipated.
- Services prices less energy remained elevated although the y/y rate slowed to 4.4%, the lowest since February 2022.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jan 15 2025U.S. Mortgage Applications Surged in the January 10 Week
- Applications to purchase and to refinance loans jumped.
- Rates on 30-year fixed-rate loans rose moderately.
- Average loan size rose modestly in latest week.
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