Economy in Brief

The S&P manufacturing PMIs for November show split results with 9 reporters showing improvement and 9 reporters showing deterioration. The median value among reporters in November is 49.0, exactly the same as its the three-month average, but it's a downtick from 49.5 in October. The split in terms of improving or deteriorating is 50/50 in November and that compares to 61.1% improving versus about 39% deteriorating in October. Both of these diffusion readings are a tremendous step up from September when only 11% of the reporters improved month-to-month.

Sequentially, there's hardly any change at all and none worth speaking about. All of the values for three-months, six-months, and 12-months are either 49.0 or 49.1. Now compared to 12 months ago shows a diffusion of 55.6, indicating relatively more improvement than deterioration. For six-months versus 12-months, diffusion is at 66.7, indicating about 2/3 are improving and only one-third deteriorating. However, over three-months compared to six-months, the split on diffusion is at 50%, a wholly neutral value.

The queue standings that rank the November observations on data back to January 2021 show above 50% readings for eight of the 18 reporters in the table. Above their 50% mark (which means above their medians) are the euro area, Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam. The global manufacturing results from the JP Morgan index which employs weighting is much higher at 68.4 percentile and compares to an unweighted Asian average of 54.7%, and the total average at 45.8%. Neither of the two average statistics employ weighting.

Assessing the change in manufacturing from January 2021 across the 18 reporters, only four have manufacturing indexes that are higher than they were at that time; those reporters are Mexico, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam.

The INSEE survey of household confidence in France eased in November after having seen some rebound in October. The chart shows that household confidence has generally been giving back ground over the past year; that contrasts to the business climate indicator that has been stable during this period, with a very slight uptrend.

Household confidence has a 29.3 percentile (rank) standing on data back to 2001, marking the level of confidence as a lower one-third phenomenon for France in November.

Living standards over the past 12 months had been relatively stable, posting a value of -74 in November, much the same as what we see over the earlier five months and translating into a ranked standing in its lower 15-percentile, a relatively weak result. The outlook for living standards over the next 12 months is at a diffusion value of -55; however, it is still at a relatively weak 15-percentile standing. The prospects for unemployment had diminished slightly over the last five months, but currently the reading has a 62.6 percentile standing. That's a rank standing above the 50th percentile, marking it as a concern about unemployment that's slightly higher than the median for the period.

Price developments in November yield a diffusion rating of -9, very little change compared to the previous four months and with the rank standing at its 37th percentile, basically suggesting that there was not much concern about inflation over the past 12 months. The next 12-month reading is at -32 in November, unchanged from October and slightly weaker than the previous three months; however, the standing is at its 49th percentile, which is essentially at its median.

The favorability to save, at a reading of 45 in November, had stepped up slightly over the past five months, while the ability to save over the next 12 months had also crept up very slightly. Each of these metrics has a very high ranked percentile standing in the 99th percentile. Favorability to save responses are generally strongly correlated with unfavourability to spend and we see that here again with the favorability to make major purchases at a -30 reading in November and having generally slipped from the previous five months and having fallen to a percentile standing in its 16.3 percentile, quite a weak situation.

The financial situation over the past 12 months had largely been unchanged at the level of the November reading; it has a 64.3 percentile standing, above its historic median. However, for the next 12 months the financial situation, while also having improved compared to its recent history, has a percentile standing only in its 43.5 percentile.

The INSEE household confidence survey for November remains weak and continues to show soft spots. There is little evidence of firming across the components, and the trend behavior is that this index has been slipping at a slow pace over about the last year. None of that seems to be changed as of November 2025.